Импортозависимость и импортозамещение в России: оценка на основе таблиц ресурсов и использования

Проблемы прогнозирования. 2024. № 2(203). С. 21–33.

Kalinin A. M.

The article discusses issues related to the assessment of import dependence and the results of the import substitution policy in the period 2016–2020. An overview of options for assessing import dependence indicators is provided, and the possibility of using resource and use tables published by Rosstat is substantiated. The main analysis tool is calculated tables of import dependence indicators. In addition, econometric modeling is used to test the significance of individual factors. It has been established that for the vast majority of industries and products in the period 2016–2020, there was no monotonic reduction in import dependence. For approximately half of the types of products, markets and industries under consideration, fluctuations in the share of imports in 2016–2020 were insignificant or not sufficiently stable. At the same time, there is evidence of significant and significant import substitution in certain segments, including those reflecting the efforts of the state. Taking into account the current state of the Russian economy and external conditions of socio-economic development, the currently declared emphasis on ensuring technological sovereignty can be considered justified, but the practical implementation of the import substitution policy in comparison with the period 2016–2020 should be more effective, both in terms of volume and effectiveness of the tools used.

Keywords: промышленная политика, импортозамещение, обрабатывающая промышленность, industrial policy, manufacturing industry, import substitution, import dependence, импортозависимость