Условия внешнего экономического баланса страны в современной экономике
Text of this article contains analyse of two looks at determination of the external economic balance of country. At the article are elaborated conditions of external balance in modern economy. The final section of this article explains some reasons of external disbalances in modern economy.
A methodology is presented that allows to analyze and forecast dynamics of Russia’s foreign trade indicators published in balance of payments. Basing on the methodology, a model is constructed consisting of econometric and balance ratios. This model gives an opportunity to describe balance of payments variables with high accuracy. Model is adapted for midterm forecasting of monthly and quarterly data. With the help of the model discussed it is possible to simulate various economic scenarios and their influence on Russia’s economy.
The modern international monetary system has a number of flaws and therefore needs cardinal change. Hence, economists from all over the world are suggesting alternative international currencies that would make the international monetary system more efficient. However, it is essential when approaching the creation of a new international currency to analyse and take into account the experience of all the past international currencies. Therefore this paper begins with an exploration of the drawbacks of each of the past and present international currencies. Drawing on this analysis a justification will be made for the necessity of introducing a new international currency, pointing to the requirements it should meet. Further on, this paper proposes an alternative theoretically possible variant of the international currency, with a fixed value relative to a commodity basket. An abstract example is used to demonstrate its composition and circulation mechanism.
This article analyses patterns of technology transfer policy in connection with innovation development. It is argued that knowledge transfer plays the key role in efficiency of international technology acquiring. Statistical analysis is carried out based on data gathered from various international organisations including OECD and The WB.
The paper analyses the key factors of balance of payments dynamics for countries with different exchange rate regimes. We consider the differences in approaches to the analysis of balance of payments effects, and provide an overview of recent studies on current account and capital account dynamics. We present an estimates based on quarterly data on 40 countries with floating exchange rate regime and 38 countries with intermediate exchange rate regimes from 2006 to 2010. In the period of crisis, the response of trade balance is opposite depending on exchange rate regime. Data also support the hypothesis of reversal effect of BOP. The hypothesis about interest rate to be a policy instrument in crisis period is not supported.
The paper examines the structure, governance, and balance sheets of state-controlled banks in Russia, which accounted for over 55 percent of the total assets in the country's banking system in early 2012. The author offers a credible estimate of the size of the country's state banking sector by including banks that are indirectly owned by public organizations. Contrary to some predictions based on the theoretical literature on economic transition, he explains the relatively high profitability and efficiency of Russian state-controlled banks by pointing to their competitive position in such functions as acquisition and disposal of assets on behalf of the government. Also suggested in the paper is a different way of looking at market concentration in Russia (by consolidating the market shares of core state-controlled banks), which produces a picture of a more concentrated market than officially reported. Lastly, one of the author's interesting conclusions is that China provides a better benchmark than the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe by which to assess the viability of state ownership of banks in Russia and to evaluate the country's banking sector.
The paper examines the principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates proposed by BCBS in the consultative document published in December 2011. Moreover, the article proposes a number of suggestions worked out by the authors within the HSE research team.