The U-shaped relationship between low carbon goods trade and emission reductions: insights from Russian regions

R-Economy. 2024. Vol. 10. No. 4. P. 373–390.

Fedyunina A., Simachev Y. V., Nikitenko S. M.

Relevance. The global imperative for adopting a low-carbon economy resonates worldwide, yet comprehensive assessments specific to the Russian economy remain scant. This is especially important considering the significant differences in the level of transition to sustainable development among Russian regions. Research Objective. This study aims to introduce a robust methodology for evaluating and analyzing the international trade of low-carbon goods (LCGs) across various Russian regions and assessing its effects on fuel combustion emissions. Data and Methods. Data on LCGs trade were obtained from the Federal Customs Service of Russia. In conjunction, datasets from Rosstat and the Central Bank of Russia were incorporated for comprehensive econometric modeling. The analytical framework employed Tobit and quantile regressions. Results. The study uncovers significant disparities among Russian regions regarding the intensity of low-carbon goods exports and imports. This variation highlights the diverse competencies in LCGs production, as well as differing ecological agendas and consumption patterns across regions. Additionally, the research demonstrates that, although the widespread adoption of advanced production technologies is positively correlated with increased fuel combustion emissions, a U-shaped relationship exists where higher LCGs exports are associated with reductions in fuel combustion emissions across Russian regions to a certain degree. Conclusions. This research highlights important implications for both federal and regional industrial and environmental policies. It advocates for the development of targeted incentives that encourage the adoption of low-carbon goods (LCGs) and advanced technologies. By doing so, policymakers can effectively promote sustainable development tailored to the unique needs and conditions of various regions, thereby fostering ecological resilience and economic growth across diverse regional landscapes.

Keywords: международная торговля, international trade, региональное развитие, regional development, российские регионы, regional disparities, передовые производственные технологии, Russian regions, advanced manufacturing technologies, региональные диспропорции, low carbon goods (LCGs), export of Russian regions, import of Russian regions, fuel combustion emissions, товары с низко углеродными технологиями, экспорт регионов России, импорт регионов России, выбросы при сжигании топлива

Publication based on the results of: Трансформации цепочек создания стоимости угольной отрасли и связанных с ней отраслей в условиях глобального энергоперехода и санкционного давления на российскую экономику (2025)