Политические эффекты социально-демографических трансформаций в США

Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2024. № 4(115). С. 135–162.

Sokolshchik L., Сакаев В. Т., Galimullin E. Z.

The article examines the effects of the socio-demographic transformations of the United States in 2020—2024 in the context of political polarization. Drawing on the approaches of political demography, the authors focus their attention on ethno-racial, age, territorial-demographic and socioeconomic aspects of these transformations. According to their hypothesis, the processes taking place in these spheres contribute to the increasing fragmentation of American society, which is also reflected in political polarization. Based on an extensive body of statistical data, the authors question the thesis of harmonization of the American political landscape under the influence of the growth of “new” (Latin American / Hispanic, Asians, multiracial groups) and “old” (black) minorities in the total population. It is demonstrated that this circumstances, coupled with the main trend of the white population decline, create conditions for the growth of the influence of right-wing populism, one of the exponents of which is D.Trump. The authors conclude that the increasing fragmentation of American society and the growing contradictions even within relatively homogeneous groups are likely to lead, in addition to traditional (white — minority) conflicts, to the emergence of new conflicts, including within ethno-racial groups. This in turn will entail a serious impact on the reformatting of the social base of the Republican and Democratic Parties, which will be accompanied by an increase in polarization processes.

Keywords: авторское право США, правый популизм, The United States of America, политическая поляризация, right populism, political polarization