• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБB
  • АБB
  • АБB
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Обычная версия сайта

Статья

The Apparent Failure of Russia’s Pronatalist Family Policy

Population and Development Review. 2013. Vol. 39. No. 4. P. 635-647.
Frejka T., Zakharov S. V.

Russia has a long history of pronatalist policies dating back to the 1930s. Two sets of pronatalist measures were implemented during the past 40 years. The one designed in the early 1980s proved to be a clear failure. Instead of raising fertility, completed cohort fertility declined from 1.8 births per woman for the 1960 to 1.6 for the 1968 birth cohort. The government of president Putin became very concerned with the dire demographic conditions of high mortality and low fertility in Russia in the1990s and early 2000s. Among others, a reasonably comprehensive set of pronatalist measures came into effect on 1 January 2007. The period total fertility rate increased from1.3 births per woman in 2006 to 1.6 in 2011 which the authorities view as an unqualified success. An unbiased demographic evaluation as well as analyses of Russian experts reveals that apparently the measures mainly caused a lowering of the age at birth and shortening of birth intervals. It appears that any real fertility increase is questionable, i.e. cohort fertility is not likely to increase appreciably. The recent pronatalist measures may turn out to be a failure.