Antecedents of effectuation and causation in SMEs from emerging markets: the role of CEO temporal focus

International Journal of Organizational Analysis. 2025. Vol. 33. No. 7. P. 1742–1764.

Kozachenko E., Shirokova G., Bodolica V.

Purpose

Previous studies considered effectuation and causation as alternative decision-making strategies used by entrepreneurs to navigate uncertainty, having various individual- and firm-level antecedents. This study aims to broaden our understanding of individual-level antecedents by examining the role of Chief Executive Officer (CEO) temporal focus in decision-making processes in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Design/methodology/approach

Based on a multiple case study research design, the authors empirically analyse 16 Russian SMEs to uncover how the CEO temporal focus relates to the choice of effectuation/causation strategies under uncertainty.

Findings

CEOs with past orientation tend to adopt causation, future-oriented CEOs adhere to effectuation, while present-focused CEOs rely on both decision-making strategies (i.e. ambidexterity). Prior crisis-related experience is the underlying mechanism behind the relationship between CEO temporal orientation and effectuation/causation strategies. The authors formulate several propositions that may be tested in future studies in the field.

Originality/value

The contribution of this study consists in uncovering a new individual-level antecedent of effectuation/causation under uncertainty (i.e. CEO temporal focus) and suggesting that prior crisis experience acts as a mechanism underlying this relationship. The authors advance the strategic leadership theory by underscoring the CEO’s role in decision-making processes in SMEs.

Keywords: МСП, каузация, SMEs, ambidexterity, Effectuation, Causation, эффектуация, CEO temporal focus