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October 8, 2026
HSE Experts Take Part in 23rd Annual Meeting of Valdai Discussion Club
The 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club was held from September 28 to October 1, 2026 under the theme ‘Responsibility for the Future: Limits of the Possible, or Limitless Possibilities?’ The forum brought together 120 experts from 40 countries, including representatives of China, the United States, India, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Germany, Egypt, Iran, and Japan.
October 7, 2026
‘Our Team Consists of True Leaders in Their Respective Academic Disciplines
The HSE International Centre of Decision Choice and Analysis studies a wide range of methods for analysing decision-making and possible scenarios for the development of natural, socio-economic, and political phenomena using various mathematical models. The application of advanced mathematical methods to forecasting helps to prevent negative outcomes and avoid erroneous decisions. The HSE News Service spoke to the centre’s director, Prof. Fuad Aleskerov, about its work.
October 6, 2026
International N5 Symposium ‘Neural Networks and Nonlinearity in Nizhny Novgorod Brings Together Scientists from Russia and Serbia
The International N5 Symposium ‘Neural Networks and Nonlinearity in Nizhny Novgorod’ was held at the Nizhny Novgorod House of Scientists from September 23 to 26. The event was organised by HSE University–Nizhny Novgorod and the Nizhny Novgorod House of Scientists, with the participation of Sberbank and the Institute of Physics Belgrade. The symposium was held for the second time: the first conference took place in 2025 and attracted considerable interest from the academic community.

 

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Abnormal Stock Returns as a leading indicator of crisis

Ch. 7. P. 63–71.
Vasilisa Makarova, Камбаралиева К.

Defining the main indicators of crisis has always been a relevant topic for investors, policy makers and company management. Large systemic risks are forcing many large firms both permanently and temporarily to leave foreign markets. Such step may entail the future crisis for these companies especially if the firms are dependent on the profit they had been gaining from this market. This study aims to determine the leading crisis indicators using the sample of 185 firms which restricted the investments in one of the foreign branches by April 2022.The reverse event study and the binary probability model - the logistic approach was implemented to achieve the purpose of the study. The results showed that crisis may occur for 97 companies out of 185 ones.   Moreover, the Current ratio, Profit Margin, Debt to Equity and ROE turned to be significant indicators of the future crisis forecast for these companies.

Language: English
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Keywords: probability modelcrisis indicatorsevent study analysis

In book

Proceedings of 16 th SCF International Conference on “Sustainable Development in a Global Perspective”. Istanbul, April 28-29, 2023
Istanbul: [б.и.], 2023.
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