Повышение ставки НДС, государственные расходы, экономический рост и отраслевые эффекты: CGE анализ

Вопросы экономики. 2022. № 7. С. 27–45.

Скрыпник Д. В.

The paper examines the sectoral and macroeconomic effects of the increase
in the VAT rate and the additional increase in government spending. For this
porpoise, the computable general equilibrium model of the Russian economy has
been developed. We have found that the VAT rate hike leads to the output decrease
in most industries, including the manufacturing sector. Despite the positive
macroeconomic effect from the government spending increases, the sectoral
structure is deteriorating, and there is not enough additional growth in demand
to offset the negative effect of the increase in the VAT rate, in particular for
the industrial sector. In the VAT rate hike and government spending increase
scenario, the negative effects of the VAT hike are exacerbated for sectors such
as agriculture and trade due to higher costs of production factors as a result of
additional government demand. Favorable conditions are being created for the raw
materials and the construction sectors as well as the electricity, heat, water and
gas distribution sector that have already developed dynamically. Beyond these
sectors, the multiplier effects of government spending do not actually extend.
The industrial sector is failing to realize its potential. Balanced and sustainable
economic growth thus requires additional efforts on the part of industrial policy.

Keywords: экономическая политика, экономический рост, budget expenditures, вычислимые модели общего равновесия, CGE model, государственные расходы и доходы, economic policy analysis, Economic growth