Сценарное планирование в управлении обеспечением национальной безопасности: методологические основы

Национальная безопасность / nota bene. 2023. № 5. С. 36–61.

Shults V., Чернов И. В., Кульба В. В., Шелков А. Б.

The article deals with the study of methodological problems of increasing the efficiency of planning and management of ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation in context of uncertainty and risk. The results of the analysis of the main features of national security as a subject area and a complex object of public administration management are presented. The main features of management processes to ensure Russia's national security within the framework of closely interconnected external and internal contours of the subject area under consideration are highlighted. The analysis of the problems and tasks of planning as the central function of the national security management process, which determines the ways to achieve the goals set in the conditions of continuous changes in the external and internal environments, as well as the threats and challenges associated with them, is carried out. To improve the efficiency of managing processes to ensure national security, it is proposed to use a scenario approach, which provides the possibility to develop a complex of planning and management decisions taking into account the alternatives for the future events at the management object and in the external environment under uncertainty and risk. The basic strategies for using scenarios in the processes of long-term and medium-term planning are highlighted and the results of evaluating the effectiveness of various approaches to converting scenarios into concrete plans are presented. The results of the analysis showed that the use of the developed automation technology for scenario-forecast research based on the signed oriented graphs mathematical model as a means of information support for the decision-making processes significantly expands the possibilities of using the scenarios as the planning processes basis in order to increase the validity, efficiency, effectiveness and sustainability of the developed plans and programs.

Keywords: риск, имитационное моделирование, управление, планирование, сценарный анализ, неопределённость, национальная безопасность, угроза, оценка эффективности решений