Долговременные сценарии развития мировой электроэнергетики: основные тенденции и неопределенности

Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право. 2022. № 2. С. 33–48.

Резникова О. Б., Гахокидзе И. З., Sinitsyn M.

Scenario analysis of world electricity in the long-term perspective within the general context of global economic growth allowed the authors to conclude that perspective dynamics of electricity in the world leading production and consumption centers will be decisively infl uenced by complex and heterogeneous factors, including: fi rst, primary energy resources endowment; second, level and type of economic development; third, countries capacities to mobilize fi nancial and investment resources necessary for promotion of new renewable energy sources; fourth, national economic and energy strategies. Depending on these factors countries will remain at very diff erent stages of energy transition at the foreseeable future. Th ere is no a universal model of energy transition.

Keywords: Китай, развивающиеся страны, электроэнергетика, Индия, США, European Union, USA, China, developing countries, developed countries, Евросоюз, India, развитые страны, electricity, decarbonization, декарбонизация, energy transition, renewables, НВИЭ, энергетический переход, cost of energy transition, carbon emission tax, цена энергетического перехода, налог на эмиссию углерода