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К вопросу о прогнозировании высокотехнологичных производств в современных условиях: теоретико-методологические аспекты
The article considers and substantiates new aspects of high-tech industries forecasting which develop theoretical and methodological constructs that describe "surroundings" of the forecasting object and the forecasting background. The shipbuilding industry was taken as an example of the forecasting object. The technical and economic indicators of the development of the shipbuilding industry in the years 2011-2020 were updated and refined. Assessments of the long-term development potential of the shipbuilding industry in 2022-2035 under the baseline scenario and the investment and innovation scenario were carried out. The analysis showed that the most efficient stage of the shipbuilding industry development took place during the years 2014-2017 but in the years 2018-2019 decrease of the state order occurred. The situation was changing for the better in the years 2020-2021 but the growth in demand from the state and form companies with state participation, as well as from commercial organizations was still insufficient. Calculations showed that in the years 2011-2020 more than one third of the shipbuilding industry fixed assets were renewed and that the same potential for renewal remained for the period of 2020-2030. On the whole labor productivity by the year 2035 will increase 2.8 times in the investment and innovation scenario as compared with the year 2021 and 2.4 times in the baseline scenario. In real terms under the investment and innovation scenario growth of the gross output by the year 2035 as compared to the year 2021 will reach 67%, while under the baseline scenario it will not exceed 50%. The obtained forecast results allow to state that support measures for the shipbuilding industry in order to increase their efficiency should be grouped according to the stages of the future development of this industry.