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  • Патронаж как ключевой предиктор ротации губернаторов: факторы устойчивости глав регионов России после возвращения губернаторских выборов в 2012 г.
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Subject
News
October 8, 2026
HSE Experts Take Part in 23rd Annual Meeting of Valdai Discussion Club
The 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club was held from September 28 to October 1, 2026 under the theme ‘Responsibility for the Future: Limits of the Possible, or Limitless Possibilities?’ The forum brought together 120 experts from 40 countries, including representatives of China, the United States, India, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Germany, Egypt, Iran, and Japan.
October 7, 2026
‘Our Team Consists of True Leaders in Their Respective Academic Disciplines
The HSE International Centre of Decision Choice and Analysis studies a wide range of methods for analysing decision-making and possible scenarios for the development of natural, socio-economic, and political phenomena using various mathematical models. The application of advanced mathematical methods to forecasting helps to prevent negative outcomes and avoid erroneous decisions. The HSE News Service spoke to the centre’s director, Prof. Fuad Aleskerov, about its work.
October 6, 2026
International N5 Symposium ‘Neural Networks and Nonlinearity in Nizhny Novgorod Brings Together Scientists from Russia and Serbia
The International N5 Symposium ‘Neural Networks and Nonlinearity in Nizhny Novgorod’ was held at the Nizhny Novgorod House of Scientists from September 23 to 26. The event was organised by HSE University–Nizhny Novgorod and the Nizhny Novgorod House of Scientists, with the participation of Sberbank and the Institute of Physics Belgrade. The symposium was held for the second time: the first conference took place in 2025 and attracted considerable interest from the academic community.

 

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Патронаж как ключевой предиктор ротации губернаторов: факторы устойчивости глав регионов России после возвращения губернаторских выборов в 2012 г.

Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология. 2022. Т. 16. № 4. С. 73–84.
Balandin Y.

The return of direct gubernatorial elections in 2012 did not lead to an increase in the autonomy of regional heads - on the contrary, the federal center only strengthened control over the staffing of regional executive power. Moreover, the rotation is only growing despite the positive dynamics of «United Russia» representa-tion and support in the federal and regional legislatures. In this regard, the thesis that the good results of the "party of power" ensure the stability of governors (Reuter, Robertson, 2012) needs to be revised. The study aimed to identify the key predictors influencing the rotation of Russian governors after the return of direct elections of the heads of Russian regions. Using logistic regression analysis on panel data, the high signific-ance of patronage as a predictor of the resignations of Russian governors from 2012 to 2020 was revealed. The hypothesis was confirmed that the higher the degree of patronage of the governor, the lower the likelih-ood that the head of the region will leave his post or not be promoted in the formal hierarchy. It turned out that the loyalty expressed in the results of the "United Russia" in the regional and federal elections is no longer a key predictor of the rotation of governors.

Research target: Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration
Language: Russian
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Keywords: региональная политикароссийская политикаRussian politicspatronageRussia's regional policyпатронажrussian governorsроссийские губернаторы
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