Networks under Deep Uncertainty

Procedia Computer Science. 2022. Vol. 214. P. 1285–1292.

Aleskerov F. T., Dutta S., Egorov D., Tkachev D.

We construct a model to find the insecure countries in terms of food security using network analysis under the conditions of deep uncertainty. The conditions under deep uncertainty can be drought, flood, earthquakes, etc., which affect the supply and demand of food of the countries. Under such conditions which countries are more vulnerable has been studied. In order to study such situations, a model for healthy consumption of different products has been built, and a network is constructed to determine the vulnerable countries using the import and export data of basic food products (Rice, Wheat, Maize, Sorghum, Barley and Rye) for various countries. Different measures of network analysis have been applied and studied to discover the dependency of one country from other country or countries for food supply. The result of the study will definitely be helpful to the countries to resist such threats beforehand.

Keywords: продовольственная безопасность, сетевой анализ, сценарный анализ, network analysis, scenario analysis, food insecurity, глубокая неопределенность, deep uncertainty

Publication based on the results of: Study of models and methods of decision making under conditions of deep uncertainty (2022)