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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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Ethnographic Case-Study Design for Discovering Identities in Russian Post-Industrial Neighbourhoods

The Qualitative Report. 2022. Vol. 28. No. 5. P. 1221–1238.
Polukhina E.

In the 20th century of industrialization, case-study research design was related to organizations, however in the 21st century of deindustrialization the post-industrial neighborhoods could serves as an indicator of neoliberal policies and as a reference space for identity studies. However, the instruments of these studies are still poorly described, which limits this type of research design and the comparative analysis of similar neighborhoods in the global context. This paper describes the methodology and insights from three ethnographic case-studies of neighbourhoods—a type of field research focused on detailed inquiry with multiple methods of data collection. This paper follows the Chicago School of Sociology (Park, 1967), understanding a neighbourhood as a field laboratory where social and transformational processes occur, and the social nature of these changes is exposed. The identities were elaborated by secondary data, different types of interviews, observations, and visual data. The paper demonstrates the importance of visual data and the contextualization of the groups studied in the space of the neighborhood, other residents, and changes in the material and social landscapes (the historical, material, and spatial contexts). Data from photographs and videos revealed the material context of transformation, exposing the rigidity of changes in the capital case, and the actualization of inequalities in the regional case. The analysis of the mental maps of the regional neighborhood demonstrates that the workers still perceived this area as an industrial place and the factory is still the core of the workers' identity. Thus, the visual materials expose the multiple layers of identities and new aspects of inequalities. The visual data formed the basis for a research exhibition and a film that shows the ambivalence of post-industrial processes and the multivoicedness of neighborhood residents to different publics.

Research target: Sociology (including Demography and Anthropology
Language: English
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Keywords: Chicago school of sociologyidentitiescase study researchindustrial neighbourhood
Publication based on the results of:
The role of social diversity in institutional contexts: the inclusive society’s potential and challenges (2022)
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