Анализ нефинансового частного сектора Франции на основе гипотезы финансовой нестабильности

Terra Economicus. 2022. Т. 20. № 1. С. 6–26.

Rozmainsky I. V., Миндубаева К. И., Яковлева Е. К.

 

The article analyzes the dynamics of the financial fragility of French private non-financial firms using the
Financial Instability Hypothesis developed by Hyman Philip Minsky. This hypothesis contains analytical
tools to explore the relationship between the course of the business cycle and the dynamics of the structure
of private firms’ financial flows. Our sample includes 208 private sector enterprises in France. The study
covers time period from 1998 to 2018. The source of data is the Thomson Reuters platform. Related indicators
are considered separately for three categories of companies depending on the size of their revenue – small,
medium and large businesses – and for ten categories of companies depending on their industry affiliation.
Three criteria are used to classify the companies into hedge firms, firms with speculative financing and
Ponzi firms. Our empirical analysis showed that before the onset of the Great Recession in the French
economy, the share of Ponzi firms grew, and reached its maximum at the peak of economic hardship. In line
with the Financial Instability Hypothesis, the research findings confirm that the accumulation of financial
fragility is associated with the onset of the Great Recession in France. It is further shown that small firms
are much more financially fragile compared to medium and large businesses, and the real estate sector
turned out to be the most financially fragile sector of the French economy.
 

Keywords: Франция, France, Eurozone crisis, европейский долговой кризис, Great Recession, Великая рецессия, финансовая хрупкость, гипотеза финансовой нестабильности, Мински, политика строгой экономии, financial instability hypothesis, Minsky, financial fragility, austerity measures