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Статистический анализ динамики показателей деятельности российских вузов
The article presents the results of a study based on statistical methods for analyzing trends in the Russian higher education system over the five-year period preceding the global crisis provoked by the coronavirus pandemic COVID-19. This study is one of the first attempts at a large-scale analysis of the growth rates of the performance indicators of universities in recent years. Its results, according to the author, make it possible to form both a general picture of changes in Russian higher education and a detailed picture for individual groups of universities.
The author has analyzed the dynamics of six indicators of the activity of organizations of higher professional education (535 universities from 80 constituent entities of the Russian Federation): the passing score of the Unified State Examination (USE), the qualifications of academic staff, their publication activity, the internationalization of the student body, the profitability of activities and the provision of educational and laboratory premises. Trends in the change in the values of these indicators are revealed depending on the form of ownership, specialization and status of the university.
It was found that, in general, the average values of the indicators for five years increased: the passing score of the USE - by 5%; the share of the teaching staff with an academic degree in the total number of teaching staff - by 5%; the number of publications per one scientific and pedagogical worker (SPW) - 2.2 times; the share of foreign students in the total number of students - 1.5 times; profitability of activities - 1.3 times; the total area of educational and laboratory premises - by 8%.
At the same time, in non-state universities, the USE passing score has decreased, and they lag behind state universities in terms of growth in the publication activity of the teaching staff and the internationalization of the student body. However, their results are higher in terms of the growth of profitability of activities and provision of educational and laboratory premises.
Specialized universities have achieved an increase in the indicators of the publication activity of academic staff and the internationalization of the student body. Among the negative trends, a decrease in the passing score of the USE in medical universities, as well as in the equipment of teaching and laboratory facilities of medical and sports universities, was revealed.
The highest growth in the publication activity of SPW was observed in national research universities (24.5%), and in the internationalization of the student body - in federal universities (33.3%).
Changes in the operating conditions of universities during a pandemic are likely to have an ambiguous effect on the analyzed indicators in subsequent periods. For their adequate assessment, it may be necessary to adjust the methodology for calculating indicators of the activity of higher education institutions, taking into account their intensive use of distance learning technologies.