Достижение пороговых показателей Доктрины продовольственной безопасности по молоку: прогноз, факторы и риски

АПК: Экономика, управление. 2019. № 12. С. 38–50.

Суровцев В. Н., Никулина Ю.Н., Pajurova E.

There was a slight increase in gross milk production inRussia in 2017, while its decline continued from the beginning of the90s. Dynamic industry development in farms and increase in productionvolumes at agricultural enterprises based on the commissioning of alarge number of mega complexes and the growth of milk productivityensured an increase in total milk production despite a continuingdecrease in number of cows and milk production in households. However,the milk threshold values of the food security Doctrine remainunfulfilled and, according to our estimates, will be achieved noearlier than in eight years, and if the level of milk consumption percapita is restored - 14 years. Steady and dynamic growth in milkproduction is possible with the active introduction of highlyproductive and labour-saving technologies by most industryparticipants. Implementation of mega projects by a limited number oflarge milk producers doesn't ensure the steady growth of industryoutput at the necessary level. Further stable growth in milk productionrequires adjusting the forms of government support for the industry:expanding access to preferential investment lending to most milkproducers regardless of production size and type of management,extending to the federal level subsidizing the purchase of machineryand equipment for dairy farming and fodder production. 

Keywords: инвестиции, продовольственная безопасность, господдержка, investment, прогноз, government support, food security, forecast, производство молока, milk production