Феномен старения населения: экономические эффекты

Высшая школа экономики , 2018. № 06.

Kapeliushnikov R.

Today most of the countries are experiencing fast population aging that will last the entire XXI century. Its economic effects are multifarious and in a large part will shape further dynamics of the global economy not only in the short- or medium- but also in the long-run. Unfortunately Russian economists and politicians hardly aware how diverse are economic consequences of population aging since their attention is focused on its narrow purely pragmatic dimensions (such as raising of pension age, deficit of the Russian Pension Fund etc.). The paper provides a broad overview of major economic effects of population aging in both theoretical and empirical perspectives. It examines a place of aging in the process of the demographic transition and forecasts its expected trends in subsequent decades for a few countries including Russia. Next it critically reviews different versions of dependency/support ratios – demographic and economic; chronological and prospective; non-adjusted and adjusted for differences by age in labor income and per capita consumption. A special attention is paid to a basic scheme of relationships between key demographic and macroeconomic variables that highlights how population aging might affect employment, labor productivity, capital intensity, wages, returns to capital, investment and savings. Some additional effects are also analyzed such as prospective changes in labor supply, human capital accumulation, technological change, real interest, inflation. A general conclusion is that population aging is not per se a fundamental economic challenge that should endanger society’s welfare. Real dangers arise from existing institutions providing support for elderly which were established in the early to mid 20 century under completely different demographic and economic condition.

Keywords: человеческий капитал, потребление, технологический прогресс, демографический переход, предложение труда, старение

Publication based on the results of: Socio-demographic aspects of labour market dynamics in Russia (2018)