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July 9, 2026
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Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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Uncertainty Estimation via Stochastic Batch Normalization

P. 1–6.
Ashukha A., Vetrov D., Molchanov D., Neklyudov K. O., Atanov A.

In this work, we investigate Batch Normalization technique and propose its probabilistic interpretation. We propose a probabilistic model and show that Batch Normalization maximazes the lower bound of its marginalized log-likelihood. Then, according to the new probabilistic model, we design an algorithm which acts consistently during train and test. However, inference becomes computationally inefficient. To reduce memory and computational cost, we propose Stochastic Batch Normalization -- an efficient approximation of proper inference procedure. This method provides us with a scalable uncertainty estimation technique. We demonstrate the performance of Stochastic Batch Normalization on popular architectures (including deep convolutional architectures: VGG-like and ResNets) for MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets.

Language: English
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Keywords: deep neural networksUncertainty Estimation

In book

Workshop of the 6th International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR)
International Conference on Learning Representations, ICLR, 2018.
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