Отраслевые особенности применения моделей прогнозирования банкротства предприятия

Стратегические решения и риск-менеджмент. 2018. № 1 (104). С. 64–71.

Fedorova E., Khrustova L., Чекризов Д. В.

The aim of the research is to develop the methodology of bankruptcy prediction applying the specified statutory values of the existing models with a glance to company’s industry and developing the author’s prediction model. Initially authors estimated the forecast accuracy of the existing models for the enterprises of 8 industries. Using CART (Classification And Regression Tree) methodology the original statutory values of the models were specified for every industry under research. The calculated statutory values demonstrated the high level of prediction accuracy and balanced the indicators of accuracy for bankrupt and non-bankrupt companies. The indicators with the maximum level of significance for bankruptcy prediction were selected from all the models. They formed a basis for a new developed model, which has demonstrated the high level of prediction accuracy on a sample under research. The statutory values for the new model were also developed. The implementation of the research’s results will increase the efficiency of bank ruptcy prediction and low the number of bank rupt companies.

Keywords: банкротство, прогнозирование банкротства предприятия, модели прогнозирования, классическая модель