Simulation System for Making Political and Macroeconomical Decisions and Its Development

Journal of Physics: Conference Series. 2018. Vol. 955. No. 012036. P. 012036-1–012036-6.

Vnukov A., Blinov A. E.

Object of this research are macroeconomic indicators, which are important to

descript economic situation in a country. Purpose of this work is to identify these indicators

and to analyze how the state can affect these figures with available instruments. Here was

constructed a model where the targets can be calculated from raw data – tools in the field of

economic policy. Software code that implements all relations among the indicators and allows

to analyze with high accuracy, sufficiently successful economic policies and with the help of

some tools, you can achieve better results. This model can be used to forecast macroeconomic

scenarios. The corresponding values of the objective (outcome) variables are set as a

consequence of the configuration data of the previous period, subject to external influences and

depend on the instrumental variables. The results may be useful in economical predictions. The

results were successfully checked on real scenarios of Russian, European and Chinese

economics. Moreover, the results can be applied in the field of education. Program is available

to use as “economical game” the educational process of the University, in which you can

virtually implement various macroeconomic scenarios, draw conclusions about their success.

Keywords: mathematical model, instrumental variables, Modelling structure, Target variables, Intermediate variables, Constant development of the world market