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Прогнозирование банкротства предприятий на примере отраслей строительства, промышленности, транспорта, сельского хозяйства и торговли
Subject The study considers bankruptcy evaluation parameters formalized in the Russian legislation. Objectives The aim is to provide empirical support to the methodology for bankruptcy evaluation offered by the Russian legislation, and update the parameters of financial performance it establishes. Methods The study rests on two hypotheses: financial indicators established by Russian laws correctly evaluate the probability of bankruptcy and are better adapted to the realities of modern Russian economy than similar western models; an adequate assessment of the probability of bankruptcy in the Russian legislation is provided not only through financial performance, but also through a set of standards for its evaluation. However, the current standards are obsolete and do not consider the industry specifics of analyzed companies. Results We built a standard model of logistic regression that enables to assess the accuracy of financial indicators of bankruptcy approved by Russian laws, and to support their correctness empirically based on the data on enterprises operating in construction, manufacturing, transportation, agricultural and trade industries. Similarly, we proved the need for updating the criteria for financial performance evaluation, and offered a new system of standards, which takes into account the industry characteristics of the companies under analysis. Both hypotheses were confirmed and empirically proved. Conclusions The findings substantiate the need for updating the legal standards, the importance of industry specifics, and show that our developed standards are correct and can be translated into practice for analysis purposes.