Modelling the financial stability of an enterprise taking into account macroeconomic indicators

Business Informatics. 2016. Vol. 37. No. 3 . P. 30–37.

Davit S. Bidzhoyan, Tatiana K. Bogdanova

Enterprises today operate in a rapidly changing macroeconomic environment, and this factor should be taken into account when forecasting the financial standing of the company. In developing the company’s financial stability assessment model taking into account macroeconomic factors there is a problem of inclusion into the model of factors with frequency of measurement different from that of the internal financial performance. This paper proposes an approach to the development of financial stability model assessment taking into account macroeconomic factors and their aggregation. Based on the data of 291 enterprises of Volga Federal District metallurgical industry for the period 2012-2014, a financial stability assessment model has been built with the method of tree solution. The accuracy of the model is approximately 86%. Recommendations for optimization of the operating activities of the enterprise to achieve financial stability are given. 

Keywords: индекс потребительских цен, запасы, financial stability, decision tree, чистые активы, дерево решений, reserves, основные средства, финансовая устойчивость замщика, fixed assets, polynomial smoothing, полиномиальное сглаживание, агрегирование, ключевая ставка, the Bank of Russia key rate, costumer price index, net assets, aggregation of macroeconomic factors