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Estimating the probability of forecasted events
International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies. 2016. Vol. 4. No. 1. P. 76–80.
Madera A. G.
The article elaborates a method for estimating the probabilities of occurrence of prognosticated events in future. On the basis of the data from the previous periods about prognosticating the relevant events, as well as the data about the trends observed at present, two matrices are formed, the product of which is the matrix for the prognosis errors committed by the individual or the expert. The article shows that the vector for probabilities of the prognosticated events is the eigenvector of the prognosis error matrix, which corresponds to its single eigenvalue. Application of the elaborated method is shown on the definite example for forecasting demand of new products
Language:
English
Sergei L. Semakov, , in: Proceedings of the 2026 12th International Conference on Control, Decision and Information Technologies (CoDIT) (Italy, Bari, July 13–16, 2026).: IEEE, 2026. P. 153–156.
The problem of the first achievement of a given level by a random process is considered. The previously obtained general results are specified for a smooth Gaussian process. ...
Added: August 24, 2026
Kanaev E., Fedorovskiy A. N., Lomanov A. V. et al., , in: Russia and the World: 2026. Economy and Foreign Policy. Annual Forecast.: IMEMO RAN, 2026. P. 165–176.
The chapter forecasts major trends of Indo-Pacific development in 2026 ...
Added: July 5, 2026
Semenov P., Математика в школе 2024 № 4 С. 34–40
Simple examples are given to show that
the independence of two random events is a very
rare circumstance. It is shown how to estimate its
frequency. Open questions are posed ...
Added: March 14, 2026
Семаков С. Л., Автоматика и телемеханика 2025 № 12 С. 104–118
This paper considers the problem of estimating the probability of the following event: a continuous random process will first reach a given level at some time from a given variation interval of the independent variable. The general results obtained previously are specified for a smooth Gaussian process. The estimates are calculated for different values of ...
Added: February 23, 2026
Bagrov A. N., V. A. Gordin, Svetlova N. A. et al., Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 2026 Vol. 51 No. 1 P. 33–40
A technology for operational complex forecasting (postprocessing)1 of squall wind gusts at the points of weather station location in described. The technology was implemented at the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia. It uses the results of forecasts of several forecast models and the complex forecast of average wind. The tests have shown an increase in ...
Added: February 17, 2026
Kanaev E., Луконин С. А., Куприянов А. В. et al., В кн.: Россия и мир: 2026. Экономика и внешняя политика. Ежегодный прогноз.: М.: ИМЭМО РАН, 2025. С. 177–196.
The chapter forecasts the evolution of the Indo-Pacific Asia in 2026. ...
Added: January 30, 2026
Kanaev E., Афонцев С. А., Богданов К. В. et al., М.: ИМЭМО РАН, 2025.
The report "Russia and the World: 2026" is the twenty-fourth in a series of annual publications of IMEMO. The report consists of three parts: global trends, economy and foreign policy. The main focus is on issues of key importance for ensuring stable economic and political development of Russia in the immediate (2026) and longer term. ...
Added: January 30, 2026
Semakov S., Semakov A., Semakov I., , in: 62nd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), Singapore, Singapore, 2023.: IEEE, 2023. P. 3820–3825.
We estimate the probability that the first achievement of a given level by the component y_1(x) of n-dimensional continuous process y(x)={y_1(x),…,y_n(x)} occurs at some moment x* from a given interval (x′,x′′) and, at this moment x*, the condition (y_2(x*),…,y_n(x*))∈D holds, where D is a given domain of (n−1)-dimensional Euclidean space R^(n−1). The need to calculate the abovementioned probability arises in the problems of aircraft control during landing. ...
Added: August 9, 2025
Sergei L. Semakov, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 2024 Vol. 70 No. 10 P. 7162–7178
We propose a scheme for finding the probabilities of events related to crossings of a level by a random process. Using this scheme, we estimate the probability that the first achievement of a given level by the component y_1(x) of an n-dimensional continuous process y(x)={y_1(x),…,y_n(x)} occurs at some moment x* from a given interval (x′,x′′) and, at this moment x* , the other components y_2(x*),…,y_n(x*) satisfy given ...
Added: August 3, 2025
Sergei Semakov, International Journal of Dynamics and Control 2025 Vol. 13 No. 5 Article 201
We consider the problem of the exit of a diffusion Markov process to the boundary of a given domain. We concentrate on the one-dimensional case and solve the problem of finding the probability that the first exit of the process beyond the established corridor will occur at a given time. We apply the obtained results ...
Added: August 2, 2025
Kanaev E., Adno Y. L., Afontsev S. A. et al., IMEMO RAN, 2025.
The report outlines most likely global and regional economic political and security trends for 2025. ...
Added: April 6, 2025
Aristova N., Chadeev V., Iakimova O., , in: 2024 17th International Conference on Management of Large-Scale System Development (MLSD).: IEEE, 2024. P. 1–4.
Added: February 3, 2025
Kanaev E., Куприянов А. В., Леонтьева Е. Л. et al., В кн.: Россия и мир: 2025. Экономика и внешняя политика. Ежегодный прогноз.: М.: ИМЭМО РАН, 2024. С. 185–196.
The chapter presents a forecast on the trends in Indo-Pacific Asia in 2025. ...
Added: December 29, 2024
I. A. Ragozin, Journal of Mathematical Sciences 2024 Vol. 281 No. 1 P. 158 – 167
New goodness-of-fit tests for Rayleigh distribution family with an arbitrary scale-parameter σ, are constructed on the base of some property and some characterization. For these tests, limiting distributions are described, local Bahadur efficiencies under close alternatives are calculated, and asymptotic comparison of our test statistics is performed. ...
Added: November 13, 2024
Kychkin A., Vikentyeva O., Mylnikov L. et al., Computers & Industrial Engineering 2024 Vol. 198 Article 110662
The paper is devoted to solving the problem, associated with increasing the forecasting accuracy of pollutant concentration level based on PM2.5 dust. The LANN model (LANN – Lagrange powered Artificial Neuron Network), proposed in the paper, allows you to take into account the mutual influence of pollution sources on the concentration level at monitoring points, ...
Added: October 28, 2024
Kanaev E., Адно Ю. Л., Афонцев С. А. et al., М.: ИМЭМО РАН, 2022.
The report "Russia and the World: 2023" is the twenty first in a series of annual publications of IMEMO RAS and PSIF. The report consists of three parts: global trends, economy and foreign policy. The main focus is on issues of key importance for ensuring stable economic and political development of Russia in the immediate ...
Added: July 18, 2024
Springer, 2023.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Advances in Optimization and Applications, OPTIMA 2023, held in Petrovac, Montenegro, during September 18–22, 2023.
The 21 full papers included in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 68 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: mathematical programming; global optimization; continuous optimization; ...
Added: December 9, 2023
Mylnikov L., FME Transactions 2020 Vol. 48 No. 1 P. 53–62
Added: February 1, 2023
Игнатов А. А., Басангов Л. Л., Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Международные отношения 2019
The G20 is an informal institute of global governance and one of the most prominent international forums for both — key developed and developing economies. The G20’s agenda embraces various issues including international taxation, digital growth, macroeconomic stability, labor market development, fight against crime and corruption, implementation of effective and eco-neutral energy technologies, etc. The ...
Added: January 11, 2023
Khodachek A. M., Ходачек Г. М., В кн.: Региональная экономика и развитие территорийТ. 16. Вып. 1.: Издательство Санкт-Петербургского государственного экономического университета, 2022. С. 202–211.
The article is devoted to the formation and prospective development of the St. Petersburg urban agglomeration on the basis of plans for urban development of territories, long-term forecast for the sustainable socio-economic development of the national economic complex of the city and region. ...
Added: December 22, 2022