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Estimating the probability of forecasted events
International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies. 2016. Vol. 4. No. 1. P. 76-80.
Madera A. G.
The article elaborates a method for estimating the probabilities of occurrence of prognosticated events in future. On the basis of the data from the previous periods about prognosticating the relevant events, as well as the data about the trends observed at present, two matrices are formed, the product of which is the matrix for the prognosis errors committed by the individual or the expert. The article shows that the vector for probabilities of the prognosticated events is the eigenvector of the prognosis error matrix, which corresponds to its single eigenvalue. Application of the elaborated method is shown on the definite example for forecasting demand of new products
Language:
English
Madera A. G., Менеджмент в России и за рубежом 2013 № 6 С. 21-29
A new method to predict the probabilities of future events that are consequences of the subject, are presented. The method is based on combining the two types of forecasts – forecasted events using statistical data predictions for previous periods, as well as subjective, using expert estimates, using new information. Shows that an objective forecast is ...
Added: September 2, 2013
Avdoshin S. M., Pesotskaya E. Y., / Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. Series "IEEE Xplore Digital Library". 2012.
Modern software development faces many challenges nowadays. In order to avoiding, minimizing, and monitoring the risks and their impact, it is important to identify, estimate and evaluate the risks. The study addresses software risk management in software development area. An approach to analysis, structuring, and usage is proposed for the information technology (IT) projects in ...
Added: May 4, 2012
Anisimov E., V : Mokslo ir enciklopedijų leidybos centras, 2014
Monografija apima visą Rusijos istoriją – nuo seniausių laikų iki šių dienų. Autorius pasirinko gana originalų medžiagos pateikimo būdą: skyriais „datos“, „žmonės“, „įvykiai“. Skyriuje „datos“ pagrindinis dėmesys teikiamas įvykių chronologijai, skyriuje „žmonės“ vaizdžiai aprašomi istorinių asmenybių charakterio bruožai ir pristatomi jų nuopelnai, o skyriuje „įvykiai“ apmąstoma Rusijai ar net visam pasauliui svarbių istorijos lūžių reikšmė. ...
Added: March 24, 2015
Karminsky A. M., Kostrov A., Murzenkov T., Финансовая аналитика: проблемы и решения 2012 № 41(131) С. 2-13
В соответствии с Базельскими соглашениями одной из перспективных задач риск-менеджмента является совершенствование моделей вероятности дефолта. Авторы исследуют влияние на вероятность дефолта российских банков финансовых факторов, уделяя особое внимание расширению горизонта исследования и нелинейностям по объясняющим переменным. Проведен анализ адекватности модели. Отмечено, что учет нелинейностей по относительным финансовым переменным существенно улучшает качество модели. Выделены объясняющие переменные, ...
Added: December 7, 2012
Zakirova G., Bulletin of the South Ural State University, Series: Mathematical Modelling, Programming and Computer Software 2019 Vol. 12 No. 2 P. 5-24
The article contains results in the field of spectral problems for mathematical models with discrete semi-bounded operator. The theory is based on linear formulas for calculating the eigenvalues of a discrete operator. The main idea is to reduce spectral problem to the Fredholm integral equation of the first kind. A computationally efficient numerical method for ...
Added: January 23, 2022
Суровцев В. Н., Никулина Ю.Н., Pajurova E., АПК: Экономика, управление 2019 № 12 С. 38-50
There was a slight increase in gross milk production inRussia in 2017, while its decline continued from the beginning of the90s. Dynamic industry development in farms and increase in productionvolumes at agricultural enterprises based on the commissioning of alarge number of mega complexes and the growth of milk productivityensured an increase in total milk production ...
Added: January 14, 2020
Rasskazova A. N., Rasskazov S. V., Банковские услуги 2012 № 3 С. 18-29
In this work the mathematical formulation of planning interaction of bank and corporate customers, aimed at achieving a given of banks indicator, and technology its solutions. On real data performed an analytical study on the relationship of this indicator with GDP for different categories of customers. The results obtained can be used to develop elements ...
Added: March 8, 2013
Rodin A., , in : Logica’2002. : Prague : [б.и.], 2003. P. 221-230.
As Plato notices (Phaed. 96e-97b) there are two possible ways to get a pair. One (I shall call it pairing) is
to bring two units together and the other (halving) is to cut a unit into two halves2. If the units are small
objects like pebbles or coins then to use pairing is much easier, though. It ...
Added: June 7, 2018
Dagaev A. A., В кн. : Прогноз динамики и взаимодействия факторов научно-технологического развития в период смены цивилизационных циклов. : М. : МИСК, 2013. Гл. 2.4.4. С. 165-173.
В монографии на основе цивилизационного подхода и оригинальной методики интегрального макропрогнозирования с учетом циклов, кризисов и инноваций представлен долгосрочный (на период до 2050 г.) прогноз основных факторов научно-технологического развития - составляющих генотипа цивилизаций (демографического, природно-экологического, технологического, экономического, социально-политического, социокультурного) в мире и в России и период смены цивилизационных циклов заката индустриальной и становления интегральной мировых ...
Added: January 9, 2014
Kulagin M., Sidorenko V., , in : Proceedings of the Third International Scientific Conference “Intelligent Information Technologies for Industry” (IITI’18) Volume 2. Vol. 2.: Springer, 2019. P. 308-316.
This article describes modern methods of data processing regarding the task of assessing activities of transportation employees. The main purpose was to find dependencies in data and construct an algorithm for predicting the probability of transport safety violation by employee. The research was conducted for locomotive drivers. The following algorithms were used: neural networks, gradient boosting over decision trees and ...
Added: January 19, 2019
Bruning J., Grushin V. V., Dobrokhotov S. Y., Russian Journal of Mathematical Physics 2012 Vol. 19 No. 3 P. 261-272
In the paper, using relatively simple formulas derived in the abstract perturbation theory of selfadjoint operators, we obtain explicit asymptotic formulas for a family of elliptic operators of Laplace type that arise in linear problems with rapidly oscillating coefficients. ...
Added: December 24, 2012
Kanaev E., Dynkin A. A., Baranovsky V. G. et al., Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal 2022 No. 1 P. 13-39
Abridged English-language version of the annual IMEMO forecast ‘Russia and the World: 2022’ is dedicated to the analysis and the forecast of key trends in the world economy and international relations in 2022. The primary focus is on the issues that are of fundamental importance for ensuring stable economic and political development of Russia in ...
Added: October 12, 2022
Кучумов Н. И., / Cornell University. Series arXiv "math". 2021.
We study random domino tilings of a multiply-connected domain with a height function defined on the universal covering space of the domain. We prove a large deviation principle for the height function in two asymptotic regimes. The first regime covers all domino tilings of the domain. We also prove a law of large numbers for ...
Added: June 24, 2022
Makeeva L. B., В кн. : Проблемы викладання логiки та дисциплiн логичного циклу. V Мiжнародна науково-практична конференцiя. Материалы доповiдей и виступiв. : К. : Киевский национальный университет им. Тараса Шевченко, 2012. С. 107-109.
Дается описание курса по индуктивной и вероятностной логике, который читается студентам философского факультета НИУ ВШЭ. ...
Added: March 12, 2015
Синявская О.В., Омельчук Т. Г., SPERO. Социальная политика: экспертиза, рекомендации, обзоры 2014 № 19 С. 7-30
Ageing of population is a main challenge to the Russian pension system for coming decades. To what extent changing of parameters of demographic development - various rates of life expectancy growth, birth and migration rates will impact the finances of pension system? Authors answer this question using the analysis of forecasted dynamics of pension benefits ...
Added: October 5, 2014
Sirotin V., Arkhipova M., , in : The Proceedings of the 17th European Conference on Research Methodology for Business and Management Studies ECRM 2018. : The University of Roma TRE Rome, 2018. P. 372-379.
Most of index construction techniques combine measured features presenting different components of the index. To obtain the correct weights of the features is a matter of great importance. Widely used principal component analysis allows us to do without training sample. It settles the weight of the feature according to its variability. But this method works ...
Added: October 28, 2019
Springer, 2023
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Advances in Optimization and Applications, OPTIMA 2023, held in Petrovac, Montenegro, during September 18–22, 2023.
The 21 full papers included in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 68 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: mathematical programming; global optimization; continuous optimization; ...
Added: December 9, 2023
Mylnikov L., FME Transactions 2020 Vol. 48 No. 1 P. 53-62
Added: February 1, 2023
Régnier M., Eugenia F., Mikhail Roytberg et al., / INRIA. Series 00858701 "HAL". 2013.
We present a novel algorithm, SufPref, computing an exact pvalue for Hidden Markov models (HMM). The algorithm inductively traverses specific data structure, the overlap graph. Nodes of the graph are associated with the overlaps of words from a given set H. Edges are associated to the prefix and suffix relations between ovelaps. An originality of ...
Added: October 11, 2013
Shitov Y., Linear and Multilinear Algebra 2015 Vol. 63 No. 2 P. 221-221
We show that a rank-three symmetric matrix with exactly one negative eigenvalue can have arbitrarily large nonnegative rank. ...
Added: January 27, 2014
Abramovich S., Nikitin Y. Y., Bernoulli News 2017 Vol. 24 No. 1 P. 7-13
The paper describes the rich history of remarkable problem lying at the confluence of number theory and probability. What is the probability of co-prima;lity of two randomly selected random numbers? In russian literature this problem and its solution is attributed to P.L.Chebyshev, but we show that before Chebyshev the solution was given by P. Dirichlet, ...
Added: November 8, 2017
Avdeeva D., Akindinova N., Balashova E. et al., М. : Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2015
Мы попытались оценить возможные последствия кризиса для российской экономики в том случае, если надежды на возврат цен на нефть до 100 долл./барр. не оправдаются, а действие взаимных санкций между Россией и западными странами останется. При сохранении цен на нефть на уровне около 50 долл./барр. и тенденции к международной изоляции России объем ВВП в реальном выражении ...
Added: April 15, 2015
Makarov A. A., Pashkevich A., М. : Московский центр непрерывного математического образования, 2022
В книге содержится большое количество задач, ориентированных на практику, образцы домашних, контрольных и экзаменационных работ. Ко всем задачам даны ответы, а некоторые задания снабжены подробным решением и комментариями. Приведены справочные сведения об основных теоретических понятиях. Учебный материал изложен просто, интересно и эффективно для усвоения.
Учебное пособие рассчитано в первую очередь на студентов высших учебных заведений, обучающихся ...
Added: May 11, 2022