Russia and the World: 2022 IMEMO Forecast

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal. 2022. No. 1. P. 13–39.

Kanaev E., Dynkin A. A., Baranovsky V. G., Kobrinskaya I. Y., Machavariani G. I., Adno Y. L., Afontsev S. A., Bogaevskaya O. V., Bogacheva A. S., Vartazarova L. S., Voda K. R., Volodin A. G., Davydov A. A., Danilin I. V., Desyatsky E. A., Dmitriev S. S., Zhukov S. V., Zhuravleva V. V., Zagashvili V. S., Zvyagelskaya I. D., Ibragimov I. E., Kvashnin Y. D., Kislitsyn S. V., Kopytin I. A., Kramkin I. A., Kudinova O. N., Kupriyanov A. V., Lazovsky S. O., Leontyeva E. L., Lomanov A. V., Lukashin Y. P., Lukonin S. A., Malashenko A. V., Malysheva D. B., Mamedyarov Z. A., Medzhidova D. D., Migranyan A. A., Mirkin Y. M., Nevskaya A. A., Nikitina E. N., Podkolzina I. A., Popov V. V., Pritchin S. A., Samarskaya L. M., Svistunova I. A., Soloviev E. G., Surkov N. Y., Tyukaeva T. I., Utkin S. V., Fedorovsky A. N., Frumkin B. E., Khudyakova L. S., Shvydko V. G., Shirokov S. S.

Translator: U. Z. Artamonova, L. M. Samarskaya, P. S. Sokolova, T. R. Urumov

Editor of translation: Z. A. Mamedyarov, D. E. Moiseeva

Abridged English-language version of the annual IMEMO forecast ‘Russia and the World: 2022’ is dedicated to the analysis and the forecast of key trends in the world economy and international relations in 2022. The primary focus is on the issues that are of fundamental importance for ensuring stable economic and political development of Russia in the near (2022) and more distant future. In the preparation of the paper, the long-term experience of predictive research carried out by IMEMO RAS was used. The paper consists of three parts: global trends, economics, and foreign policy. Among the global trends accelerated digitalization and all related social, political, and economic changes; focus on technological competition; climate/environmental and energy agendas are coming to the fore; increasing geopolitical and geo-economic tensions and the raging global pandemic of COVID-19 are highlighted. In the world economy, the authors of the paper expect an increase in inflation, acceleration of digitalization amid intensifying technology competition and the pursuit of digital sovereignty, acceleration of decarbonization, launch of demethanization process, and shifts in food systems. The paper further assesses the prospects of the leading industry drivers of world economic growth in 2022: production of semiconductors; pharmaceuticals and biomedicine; rare earth, non-ferrous, and ferrous metals. In the next section of the paper, political and social trends are analyzed in the countries of North America, Europe, Pacific and South Asia, Post-Soviet space. The final section of the paper gives the forecast of the relations of the Russian Federation with its key foreign partners. Against the backdrop of the renewal of the global economy, which includes energy transition and accelerated digitalization, it is becoming vitally important for Russia to conduct a comprehensive balanced restructuring of the national economy and social sphere.

Keywords: мировая экономика, внешняя политика, Россия, Russia, foreign policy, world economy, прогноз, forecast, "новая нормальность", "new normal"