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Predicting the Audience Size of a Tweet
P. 693-696.
Kupavskii A., Umnov A., Gusev G., Serdyukov P.
We study information dissemination in Twitter. We present an analysis of two important characteristics of so called “ retweet cascades”: retweet count and “show” count, i.e., number of users that receive the tweet in their feed. We show that these two measures behave differently. We describe three models that are aimed to predict the audience size of a tweet: first one utilizes only the data available at the moment of the initial tweet, the second one utilizes the spread of the cascade up to some moment while the third one is an “online prediction”.
In book
United States of America : AAAI Press, 2013
Goncharov D. V., Nechai V., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2018 № 1 С. 65-81
Хотя по числу пользователей Твиттер заметно уступает другим действующим в нашей стране социальным сетям (прежде всего таким, как ВКонтакте и Facebook), его общественная и политическая значимость довольно велика, что обусловлено как техническими особенностями этой сети, так и спецификой общественной и политической коммуникации в современной России. На фоне жесткого государственного контроля над ключевыми медиа Твиттер представляет ...
Added: March 8, 2018
Porshnev A., Редькин И. Е., Karpov N., , in : Information Retrieval. 8th Russian Summer School, RuSSIR 2014, Nizhniy, Novgorod, Russia, August 18-22, 2014, Revised Selected Papers. Vol. 505.: Switzerland : Springer, 2015. Ch. 10. P. 297-306.
The issue of using Twitter data to increase the prediction rate of stock price movements draws attention of many researchers. In this paper we examine the possibility of analyzing Twitter users’ emoticons to improve accuracy of predictions for DJIA and S&P500 stock market indices. We analyzed 1.6 billion tweets downloaded from February 13, 2013 to ...
Added: February 18, 2016
Kharlamov A. A., Orekhov A., Bodrunova S. et al., Lecture Notes in Computer Science 2019 Vol. 11938 P. 18-31
Till today, classification of documents into negative, neutral, or positive remains a key task within the analysis of text tonality/sentiment. There are several methods for the automatic analysis of text sentiment. The method based on network models, the most linguistically sound, to our viewpoint, allows us take into account the syntagmatic connections of words. Also, ...
Added: October 29, 2020
Kupavskii A., Ostroumova L., Umnov A. et al., , in : CIKM '12: Proceedings of the 21st ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management. : NY : ACM, 2012. P. 2335-2338.
Retweet cascades play an essential role in information diffusion in Twitter. Popular tweets reflect the current trends in Twitter, while Twitter itself is one of the most important online media. Thus, understanding the reasons why a tweet becomes popular is of great interest for sociologists, marketers and social media researches. What is even more important ...
Added: March 1, 2015
Porshnev A., Redkin I. E., Shevchenko A. V., , in : 2013 IEEE 13th International Conference on Data Mining Workshops. : Los Alamitos : IEEE Computer Society, 2013. Ch. 9.3. P. 440-444.
Development of linguistic technologies and penetration of social media provide powerful possibilities to investigate users’ moods and psychological states of people. In this paper we discussed possibility to improve accuracy of stock market indicators predictions by using data about psychological states of Twitter users. For analysis of psychological states we used lexicon-based approach, which allow ...
Added: February 20, 2014
Stukal D., Sanovich S., Bonneau R. et al., American Political Science Review 2022 Vol. 116 No. 3 P. 843-857
There is abundant anecdotal evidence that nondemocratic regimes are harnessing new digital technologies known as social media bots to facilitate policy goals. However, few previous attempts have been made to systematically analyze the use of bots that are aimed at a domestic audience in autocratic regimes. We develop two alternative theoretical frameworks for predicting the ...
Added: November 14, 2022
Dmitriev V., Dmitriev A., Discontinuity, Nonlinearity, and Complexity 2018 Vol. 7 No. 4 P. 403-411
The present paper is devoted to the investigation into the nonlinear dynamics of Twitter. A new model of Twitter as a thermodynamic non-equilibrium system is suggested. Dynamic variables of such system are represented by the variations of tweet/retweet number and instantaneous diversity between the densities of population on different levels around the equilibrium values. Regular ...
Added: October 26, 2018
Gradoselskaya G., Shcheglova T., Karpov I., , in : 2018 Eleventh International Conference "Management of large-scale system development" (MLSD-2018). : M. : IEEE, 2018. P. 1-4.
The problem of studying information waves is underestimated by researchers of the social nature of this phenomenon. This article fills this gap by conceptualizing the notion of “information wave”. Information waves in social networks have a dual nature: on the one hand, having a mathematical distribution graph (wave profile), on the other – a discrete-network ...
Added: December 2, 2018
Goncharov Dmitry, Nechai Valerii, , in : Digital Transformation and Global Society. Second International Conference, DTGS 2017, St. Petersburg, Russia, June 21–23, 2017, Revised Selected Papers. : Cham : Springer, 2017. P. 270-281.
This article explores the map of political preferences of Russian Twitter users in the wake of March 2017 anti-corruption protests. So far there is little research on the political aspects of Twitter in Russia and our paper seeks to fill this gap in the scholarship. It is based on content analysis of over 45,000 tweets ...
Added: March 8, 2018
Svetlana S. Bodrunova, Litvinenko A., Blekanov I., , in : ACM International Conference Proceeding Series. Vol. 22-23-November-2016.: St. Petersburg : ACM, 2016. P. 212-222.
With the emergence of discussion platforms like Twitter, the hopes rose that computer-mediated public sphere would become more even in access to discussion than mass-mediatized public sphere of the late 20th century. Scholars have argued that it will eventually form an 'opinion crossroads' where conflicts would be discussed by all the parties involved. But today, existing ...
Added: October 5, 2017
Akhremenko A. S., Ilya Filippov, Yureskul E., , in : 2020 International Conference on Engineering Management of Communication and Technology (EMCTECH), 20-22 October 2020, Vienna, Austria. : IEEE, 2020. P. 1-7.
In this paper we present the results of computational experiments based on a novel agent-based communication model of Twitter activity. The model was designed specifically for analyzing the dynamics of communication between competing ideological positions, which sets the model apart from existing modelling literature. The model incorporates network structures into an agent-based framework; the nodes ...
Added: December 13, 2020
Porshnev Alexander, Redkin Ilya, , in : Analysis of Images, Social Networks and Texts. Vol. 436: 3rd International Conference on Analysis of Images, Social networks, and Texts.: NY : Springer, 2014. Ch. 19. P. 190-197.
The question about possibilities to use Twitter users’ moods to increase accuracy of stock price movement prediction draws attention of many researchers. In this paper we examine the possibility of analyzing Twitter users’ mood to improve accuracy of predictions for Gold and Silver stock market prices. We used a lexicon-based approach to categorize the mood ...
Added: November 21, 2014
Improving prediction of stock market indices by analyzing the psychological states of Twitter users.
Porshnev A., Redkin I. E., Shevchenko A. V., / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Economics/EC". 2013. No. 22.
In our paper, we analyze the possibility of improving the prediction of stock market indicators by conducting a sentiment analysis of Twitter posts. We use a dictionary-based approach for sentiment analysis, which allows us to distinguish eight basic emotions in the tweets of users. We compare the results of applying the Support Vector Machine algorithm ...
Added: December 25, 2013
Shigina Y., Kostrov A., , in : Proceedings in Finance and Risk Perspectives ‘14. : Enns : ACRN Publishing House, 2014. P. 582-597.
Nowadays social networks play a crucial rule in a company’s relationship with investors, requiring a stronger emphasis and more effort on the development of social media channels. We discuss a definition, classification and comparison for social media types. Then we consider the importance of social media for a company and investors, and provide evidence that ...
Added: February 14, 2015
Gabrielova E., Maksimenko O., Russian Journal of Linguistics 2021 Vol. 25 No. 1 P. 105-124
The current research answers the question how Twitter users express their evaluation of the topical social problem (explicitly or implicitly) and what linguistic means they use being restricted by the limited length of the message. The article explores how Twitter users socialize with each other and exchange ideas on social issues of great importance, express ...
Added: January 11, 2021
Khan R., Khan H. U., Faisal M. S. et al., International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security 2016 Vol. 14 No. 8 P. 1-10
Web mining analyzes web content, its usage and structure. The users’ behavior, interaction and generated content analysis have vast applications such as market analysis, social issues examination and study of human behavior. Twitter is a widely used social network that provides short message facility to its users to generate their own content. There are a ...
Added: November 29, 2023
Arkhangelskaya I., В кн. : Журналистика как важный фактор международного сотрудничества: векторы развития. Сборник материалов международной научнопрактической конференции кафедры журналистики 13 марта 2018 года. : Н. Новгород : Изд-во ННГУ им. Н.И. Лобачевского, 2018. С. 43-52.
Social media are presented as a part of media landscape and mass communication. Their specific features: global and niche character, visualization, and interactivity, are under consideration. The paper analyzes political discourse of Donald Trump in Twitter (2016 – 2018). As a result, the author concludes that there should be a wide discussion on formalization of ...
Added: April 2, 2018
Svetlana S. Bodrunova, Litvinenko A., Blekanov I., , in : Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics). 9th International Conference on Social Informatics, SocInfo 2017; Oxford. Vol. 10539.: Springer, 2017. P. 360-376.
Today, a range of research approaches is used to define the so-called influencers in discussions in social media, and one can trace both conceptual and methodological differences in how influencers are defined and tracked. We distinguish between ‘marketing’ and ‘deliberative’ conceptualization of influencers and between metrics based on absolute figures and those from social network ...
Added: October 5, 2017
Сергей Кузнецов, Коршунов А. В., Алексиянц А. В., Открытые системы. СУБД 2014 № 2 С. 51-53
Популярные сегодня социальные сети в реальном времени работают с гигантскими объемами данных, что требует применения соответствующих СУБД, в частности графовых, однако и среди них нужно отбирать наиболее адекватные поставленным задачам. ...
Added: November 25, 2017
Bodrunova S., Litvinenko A., Gavra D. et al., International Review of Management and Marketing 2015 Vol. 5 No. 1S P. 97-104
According to a number of scholars, Twitter possesses big potential to become a “crossroads of discourses” due to its openness, de-hierarchization, and spontaneity (Miller, 2010; Shirky, 2008). At the same time, substantial criticism has risen towards political and deliberative efficacy of Twitter (Fuchs, 2014). The authors aim at analyzing the features of the Twitter-based agenda ...
Added: October 24, 2016
Malik M. S., Younas M. Z., Jamjoom M. M. et al., PeerJ Computer Science 2024 Vol. 10 Article e1859
Identification of infrastructure and human damage assessment tweets is beneficial to disaster management organizations as well as victims during a disaster. Most of the prior works focused on the detection of informative/situational tweets, and infrastructure damage, only one focused on human damage. This study presents a novel approach for detecting damage assessment tweets involving infrastructure ...
Added: February 16, 2024
Akhremenko A. S., Stukal D., Petrov A., Полис. Политические исследования 2020 № 2 С. 73-91
Social media can act as environments that accumulate and concentrate protest sentiment before it brings people to the streets. The social ties that connect people online are similar to their offline ties, and their structure can affect the diffusion of both the protest-related information and the protest itself. In addition, social media can serve as ...
Added: May 26, 2020
Naidenova I. N., Parshakov P., Chmykhov A. S., / Высшая школа экономики. Series FE "Financial Economics". 2014. No. WP BRP 28/FE/2014.
This paper investigates how soccer sponsorship influences the financial performance of sponsors. We use an instrumental variable regression framework combined with a fixed effects model to avoid the possible endogeneity raised by omitted variables and reverse causality. The number of tweets containing both team and sponsor names were collected to use as the instrumental variable. ...
Added: March 3, 2014
Svetlana S. Bodrunova, Smoliarova A., Blekanov I., American Communication Journal 2017 Vol. 19 No. 2 P. 1-30
With growth of Internet communication, hopes rose that online discussions will
equalize ordinary users and institutional discussants. But what roles tr
aditional media play in
online discussions remains under
researched. We argue that mediatization of Twitter discourse is
worth studying, as activity of registered media in online discussions may play a role in preserving
the “offline” deliberative inequali
ties. To assess the ...
Added: October 5, 2017