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Прогноз и моделирование кризисов и мировой динамики
M. :
LKI, 2010.
Editor-in-chief: Akaev A., Korotayev A., Малинецкий Г.
Chapters
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., В кн.: Прогноз и моделирование кризисов и мировой динамики.: М.: ЛКИ, 2010. С. 287–299.
В нижеизложенной модели мы попытались кратко описать основные черты среднесрочного цикла деловой активности, или бизнес-цикла (7–11 лет), получившего также название цикла Жюгляра, по имени известного французского экономиста XIX века Клемента Жюгляра (1819–1905), обстоятельно исследовавшего эти циклы (Juglar 1862, 1889)[1]. Важнейшей заслугой Жюгляра было то, что он убедительно доказал именно периодичность кризисов. Центральным механизмом циклического колебания ...
Added: October 15, 2014
Rastvortseva S., Tyushkevich Y., Salushkina Z. S., Journal of regional and international competitiveness 2026 Vol. 7 No. 2 P. 38–49
This paper examines the contemporary models of international competitiveness adopted by Big Tech corporations between 2010 and 2025. The study aims to identify the internal drivers underpinning the resilience of technological giants and to assess their capacity to withstand external shocks, including sanctions, geo-economic fragmentation, and regulatory shifts. To achieve this objective, the authors employ ...
Added: October 5, 2026
De Gruyter, 2026.
Post-Soviet Eurasia is one of the world's most geopolitically consequential and rapidly transforming regions. Developments across it increasingly reshape political, economic and social relations far beyond its borders. Understanding these dynamics is therefore both intellectually urgent and analytically demanding, requiring an interdisciplinary approach capable of moving beyond established categories and fragmented national perspectives.
This handbook provides ...
Added: October 5, 2026
М.: Национальный исследовательский университет "Высшая школа экономики", 2026.
В шестнадцатом выпуске электронного издания «Вестник Российского мониторинга экономического положения и здоровья населения НИУ ВШЭ (RLMSHSE)» представлены работы, подготовленные на основании данных лонгитюдного обследования домохозяйств «Российский мониторинг экономического положения и здоровья населения НИУ ВШЭ» (РМЭЗ НИУ ВШЭ) за 1992–2024 гг. В выпуске рассматриваются динамика доходов и расходов российских домохозяйств, тенденции развития рынка труда, социальное самочувствие ...
Added: October 5, 2026
Selin A. A., Яблокова И. В., Вспомогательные исторические дисциплины 2026 Т. 45 № 3 С. 609–619
This article examines the possibility of reconstructing the archives of the Novgorod Prikaznaya Izba (office) from the late 16th and early 17th centuries, the materials of which were partially destroyed and partially scattered across various archival repositories. Some of these materials have been introduced into scholarly circulation, while others remain unidentified. There is a debate ...
Added: October 5, 2026
Новиков Д. А., ЖУРНАЛ МИНИСТЕРСТВА НАРОДНОГО ПРОСВЕЩЕНИЯ (Словакия) 2023 № 10 С. 32–40
The article provides a critical analysis of the theory of the precariat as a "new dangerous class" from the standpoint of law science, namely the sectoral areas of labor and criminal law. The author argues that the precariat does not constitute a new socio-economic class. The author is convinced that the theory of the precariat, ...
Added: October 5, 2026
Diskin E., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2026 № 3 С. 23–45
Public governance of digital platforms is characterized by a growing tension between security imperatives, such as blocking, throttling, and restricting the activities of foreign platforms, and development imperatives, including the digital economy, innovation, and users’ rights. The article conceptualizes this contradiction as a security—development dilemma: a structural problem of governance that cannot be reduced to ...
Added: October 5, 2026
Милицына П. С., Rozhkova K., Roshchin S. et al., Высшее образование в России 2026 № 8-9 С. 94–115
Привлечение и удержание молодых педагогов в школах является одним из важнейших вопросов для преодоления проблемы кадрового дефицита в системе образования. В статье анализируются особенности трудоустройства выпускников российских вузов педагогических специальностей выпуска 2021–2022 гг. На основе тотальных административных данных выявлены факторы, влияющие на вероятность их первоначального трудоустройства в школу и последующего закрепления в профессии. Результаты показывают, ...
Added: October 5, 2026
Popov A., Pivovarov N. Y., Russian Review 2026 Vol. 85 No. 4 P. 461–477
This article challenges the conventional narrative that the transferable ruble was conceived as a Soviet means of challenging Western financial hegemony. Drawing on previously unpublished archival mate rial from Russian state archives, it argues that the currency emerged primarily from a pragmatic need to settle accumulated debts within the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). ...
Added: October 5, 2026
[б.и.], 2026.
This collection presents papers from the 17th All-Russian Scientific Conference (2026), attended by staff and students from Russian higher education institutions, school teachers, and professionals from libraries and archives engaged in research on national history and historiography. ...
Added: October 5, 2026
Автухова Е. Э., Larionov A., Плачинда К. Д., М.: Экономический факультет МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова, 2026.
Данное методическое пособие разработано в соответствии с рабочей программой курса «Банковское дело», реализуемого на Экономическом факультете МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова по специальности «Экономика» (бакалавриат), и может быть рекомендовано для подготовки к семинарским занятиям и самостоятельной работе студентов. ...
Added: October 4, 2026
Вебер М., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 3 С. 318–353
In the concluding part of the Second Anti-Critique (1910), Max Weber summarizes the substantive
findings of his own contributions to the debate with the historian Felix Rachfahl. In doing so, he uses the response to his relentless critic as an opportunity to articulate once again, in an explicit manner and for both his own benefit and that of the ...
Added: October 4, 2026
Aliev R. T., Якушенкова О. С., Человек 2026 Т. 37 № 5 С. 176–191
This article addresses the epistemological transformations of knowledge about the Other under platform culture. It examines the shift from the communicative experience of presence to a data regime in which otherness is constituted through predictive classification and interface routing. The platform is conceptualized as a system that presents the subject with an already-categorized Other, thereby ...
Added: October 4, 2026
Kaspe S. I., Russia in Global Affairs 2026 Vol. 24 No. 4 P. 138–167
This article examines the stereotypes about China that prevail in the West and Russia and make them perceive it not only as a strategic challenge, but an existential threat. The article demonstrates that the most common fears are overstated and counterfactual, and that they are grounded in the West itself. Modern China cannot be identified ...
Added: October 4, 2026
Kamenskii A. B., Екатеринбург: Издательство Уральского университета, 2026.
This volume has been prepared to mark the anniversary of the distinguished Ural scholar Dmitry Alekseyevich Redin. It presents research and published source texts contributed by Dmitry Alekseyevich’s colleagues, friends, and students. The diverse range of studies—covering various aspects of Russian social history from the late 16th through the 18th century, as well as issues ...
Added: October 3, 2026
Kamenskii A. B., Quaestio Rossica 2026 Т. 14 № 3 С. 939–959
This article examines one of the significant figures in the system of governance of Russia during the reign of Catherine II: Prince Alexander Alekseevich Vyazemsky, Prosecutor General of the Senate, who held this post for approximately thirty years. During this period, the scope of his activities continually expanded to encompass the administration of finances; various construction ...
Added: October 3, 2026
Nikulina Y., Jamali Jaghdani T., Götz L. et al., / Series "Working Papers". 2026.
The impact of state subsidies on Russia's post-Soviet dairy output remains controversial; this study provides an empirical analysis of that relationship. Using an unbalanced panel dataset of 123 dairy enterprises in the Leningrad Region spanning the period from 2010 to 2023, we employ stochastic frontier analysis to assess these relationships. The results indicate that subsidies ...
Added: September 30, 2026
Kapeliushnikov R., / Высшая школа экономики. Серия WP3 "Проблемы рынка труда". 2026. № WP3/2026/02.
The paper is the first attempt in the Russian literature to assess returns to platform employment in the Russian labor market. The theory offers no clear predictions regarding its impact on workers’ earnings: there might be both a premium and a penalty. We distinguish three groups of workers: employees; self-employed using internet-platforms; self-employed not using ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Usvitskiy A., Mizyakov V., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Added: September 24, 2026
Poddiakov A., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026. No. 7437658.
Clarity of knowledge and reasoning is necessary in many cases. Yet vagueness in scientific thinking related to surprise, curiosity, "ability to engage with not-knowing" (de Freitas) and abductive reasoning is also a crucially important source of scientific creativity which supplements combinatorial logic when dealing with the already known. Starting from studies by C. S. Peirce ...
Added: September 15, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., / Series "SocArXiv". 2026.
“Leaderlessness” is widely held to be a defining feature of contemporary mass mobilization, yet the claim rests on a handful of recent cases. We offer the first systematic cross-national analysis of this phenomenon from 1791 to 2019. We show that the absence of leadership is real but older and more modest than claimed: the share ...
Added: August 29, 2026
Vagin S., Управление 2025 Т. 12 № 3 С. 74–82
The purpose of the article is to evaluate theoretical approaches to the study of various scientific and practical approaches of sustainable economic development. The author of the work has the following tasks: to conduct a comparative assessment of various scientists and economists studying theoretical approaches of sustainable strategic development of innovative potential of industrial enterprises; ...
Added: July 29, 2026
Zhuravleva T., Afanasev K., Engelmann J. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Extortionary ("harassment") bribery can persist even when widely condemned, consistent with a coordination problem sustained by beliefs about what others do and what others consider acceptable. We study whether a minimal institutional featurethe presence of a third-party monitor empowered to punish-shifts (i) normative expectations about extortion and compliance and (ii) empirical expectations about their prevalence. ...
Added: July 22, 2026
Antonova N., Федулова Е. В., Психологические исследования: электронный научный журнал 2026 Т. 19 № 107 Статья 3
The aim of this article is to analyze the theoretical and methodological foundations of cognitive-behavioral coaching and to identify prospects for its further development and research. The article examines the historical prerequisites for the emergence of cognitive-behavioral coaching as a helping practice. The distinctions between cognitive-behavioral coaching (CBC) and cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) are analyzed. The ...
Added: June 29, 2026
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Kim J., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Within narrowly defined industries, the most productive firms produce far more than the least productive from the same inputs, and this dispersion widens in downturns. We build a tractable representative-agent model in which financial frictions—adverse selection and moral hazard—make firms sort endogenously into lenders, strategic defaulters, and producers. As credit conditions vary, the resulting misallocation ...
Added: June 28, 2026