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Прогноз и моделирование кризисов и мировой динамики
M. :
LKI, 2010.
Editor-in-chief: Akaev A., Korotayev A., Малинецкий Г.
Chapters
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., В кн.: Прогноз и моделирование кризисов и мировой динамики.: М.: ЛКИ, 2010. С. 287–299.
В нижеизложенной модели мы попытались кратко описать основные черты среднесрочного цикла деловой активности, или бизнес-цикла (7–11 лет), получившего также название цикла Жюгляра, по имени известного французского экономиста XIX века Клемента Жюгляра (1819–1905), обстоятельно исследовавшего эти циклы (Juglar 1862, 1889)[1]. Важнейшей заслугой Жюгляра было то, что он убедительно доказал именно периодичность кризисов. Центральным механизмом циклического колебания ...
Added: October 15, 2014
Lodiagin B., Petrov V., International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies 2026 Vol. 9 No. 7 P. 127–141
This study compares seven Russian regional airport public-private partnership projects to examine how governance arrangements relate to implementation performance and adaptation under uncertainty. The analysis draws on public documents, project-participant materials, industry reports, and business media available by May 2026. A qualitative multiple-case design combines thematic analysis with cross-case synthesis. The cases range from comparatively ...
Added: July 27, 2026
Chernov D., Nesmashnyi A., Safranchuk I. et al., International Interactions 2026 Vol. 52 No. 4 P. 661–686
The determinants of foreign interventions, be they military interventions or other forms of foreign involvement, are important for modern international relations and conflict studies. Nevertheless, major methodological problems with the analysis are often overlooked. This paper proposes modeling interventions as a two-stage decision-making process. The first stage determines whether a specific target state is intervenable ...
Added: July 27, 2026
Pashkov S., Социологический журнал 2026 Т. 32 № 2 С. 32–44
This article discusses the methodological possibilities and specific features of constructing chain indices based on longitudinal sociological data. The relevance of the study stems from the shortage of diverse socio-economic indicators for promptly tracking fluctuations in the expectations and intentions of small business owners under heightened uncertainty. The authors show that the chain index methodology ...
Added: July 27, 2026
Knorre B. K., Вестник Православного Свято-Тихоновского гуманитарного университета. Серия 1: Богословие. Философия. Религиоведение 2026 № 125 С. 53–69
Orthodoxy, while others, on the contrary, notice a critical attitude towards it, emphasizing that he spent almost all his life in religious search. In our opinion, the answer to the question of assessing Prishvin’s religiosity lies in such a phenomenon as religious naturalism, which is expressed in Prishvin’s religious experience of nature, admitting making natural ...
Added: July 25, 2026
Aliev, Rastyam T., Galactica Media: Journal of Media Studies 2025 Vol. 7 No. 2 P. 166– 186
This article develops the concept of the metasimulacrum of otherness to analyze the structural transformations of difference in digital culture. Unlike traditional representations of otherness, the metasimulacrum reorganizes the very conditions of perception, producing otherness as a managed, aestheticized, and commodified flow. Digital platforms no longer marginalize or suppress difference; they integrate it into the ...
Added: July 24, 2026
Slabolitskiy I. S., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2026 Т. 30 № 2 С. 215–244
This paper proposes a new approach for modeling and forecasting key indicators of Russia's foreign economic activity based on a block-based architecture of a Bayesian Vector Autoregression model with exogenous variables (BVARX). In conditions of high external uncertainty and the absence of publicly available data on the physical volumes of foreign trade since 2022, the ...
Added: July 24, 2026
Scientific publishing house Infinity, 2026.
These Conference Proceedings combine materials of the conference –
research papers and thesis reports of scientifi c workers. They examine technical,
juridical and sociological aspects of research issues. Some articles deal
with theoretical and methodological approaches and principles of research
questions of personality professionalization. ...
Added: July 24, 2026
Лобоцкий М. Ю., Komarov M. M., Zaramenskikh E., Бизнес-информатика 2026 Т. 20 № 2 С. 7–21
By early 2026, AI agents ceased to be experimental tools and began to be considered as a form of business process automation. Based on the analysis of in-depth interviews, an expert session, a quantitative survey of Russian companies, and sources reflecting Russian and foreign experience in the deployment of AI agents, a fivelevel maturity model ...
Added: July 24, 2026
Bondarenko D. M., Диалог со временем 2026 № 95 С. 36–49
The article explores contemporary African Americans’ perspectives on the Revolution and its legacy, and in particular their understanding of the social, political, and cultural foundations of their country laid during that era and the results achieved on those foundations, both for American society as a whole and for its Black community. Assessments of the past, ...
Added: July 24, 2026
Любков В. Д., Диалог со временем 2026 № 95 С. 136–151
The article analyzes the function of free time in the autobiographical text of P.S. Baturin "The Life and Adventures of G.S.S.B. A Fair Tale Written by Himself. Volume III". It shows the desire of an educated official of Catherine's Russia to emphasize in his memoirs the rational use of free time devoted to the needs ...
Added: July 23, 2026
Пермь: [б.и.], 2026.
В сборнике представлены материалы Научно-практической конференции «Царствование Императора Николая I в истории России. К 200-летию восшествия на Престол», состоявшейся в Перми 10–11 июня 2025 г. Конференция была организована Администрацией губернатора Пермского края, Пермской митрополией Русской Православной Церкви, Фондом содействия возрождению традиций милосердия и благотворительности «Елисаветинско-Сергиевское просветительское общество» и Агентством по делам архивов Пермского края на ...
Added: July 23, 2026
Ойеволе А., Savinskaya O., Journal of Social Policy Studies 2026 Vol. 24 No. 2 P. 353–368
This study uses structuration theory to examine gendered dynamics within student-led STEM research groups at a Nigerian university. While gender disparities in STEM are well-documented, comparatively little attention has been given to the micro-level interactional processes through which gender inequalities are reproduced, negotiated, and occasionally challenged, particularly in non-Western educational settings. Drawing on semi-structured interviews ...
Added: July 23, 2026
Zhuravleva T., Afanasev K., Engelmann J. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Extortionary ("harassment") bribery can persist even when widely condemned, consistent with a coordination problem sustained by beliefs about what others do and what others consider acceptable. We study whether a minimal institutional featurethe presence of a third-party monitor empowered to punish-shifts (i) normative expectations about extortion and compliance and (ii) empirical expectations about their prevalence. ...
Added: July 22, 2026
Pislyakov V., Вестник Томского государственного университета. Филология 2026 № 101 С. 175–192
This article examines the use of proverbs in academic texts—specifically, articles published in Russian research journals. For the experiment, ten proverbs were selected as the intersection of two fundamentally different paremiological surveys aimed at compiling lists of popular or common Russian proverbs. One of these surveys was conducted by the classic of paremiology, G.L. Permyakov, ...
Added: July 22, 2026
Veselitskaya N., Malekova D. K., European Journal of Futures Research 2026 Vol. 14 P. 1–13
Foresight methods are often treated as transferable tools whose selection depends mainly on the object of analysis, the time horizon or the available data. This article argues that such a view is incomplete because foresight methods are embedded in governance settings and perform different institutional functions across them. The article does not claim that the ...
Added: July 22, 2026
Грудников Н. С., Пастухова Е. Г., Психология и право 2026 Т. 16 № 2 С. 198–214
Context and relevance. Mediation is a widespread form of conflict resolution with its own unique principles. Restorative justice, as a new paradigm in criminal justice, utilizes mediation as a form of implementation while adapting it to its own core concepts. Objective. The study aims to identify the differences between the value foundations of classical and ...
Added: July 22, 2026
Shekova E., Коваленко Б. Б., Екатерининская А. А. et al., СПб.: Академия русского балета им. А.Я. Вагановой, 2026.
Сборник статей посвящен актуальным проблемам управления творческими коллективами, финансированию государственных балетных театров, особенностям современных проектов и бизнес-планированию в сфере хореографического искусства. ...
Added: July 21, 2026
Antonova N., Федулова Е. В., Психологические исследования: электронный научный журнал 2026 Т. 19 № 107 Статья 3
The aim of this article is to analyze the theoretical and methodological foundations of cognitive-behavioral coaching and to identify prospects for its further development and research. The article examines the historical prerequisites for the emergence of cognitive-behavioral coaching as a helping practice. The distinctions between cognitive-behavioral coaching (CBC) and cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) are analyzed. The ...
Added: June 29, 2026
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Kim J., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Within narrowly defined industries, the most productive firms produce far more than the least productive from the same inputs, and this dispersion widens in downturns. We build a tractable representative-agent model in which financial frictions—adverse selection and moral hazard—make firms sort endogenously into lenders, strategic defaulters, and producers. As credit conditions vary, the resulting misallocation ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Власов С. А., Nevalennyi M., Сафиулин Р. Р. et al., / Банк России. Серия Аналитическая записка "Материалы Банка России". 2026.
В аналитической записке обсуждается долгосрочно устойчивый уровень цены на российскую нефть. Это тот уровень, к которому цена нефти, вероятнее всего, будет тяготеть в долгосрочной перспективе. Потребность в его определении возникает по нескольким причинам. Во-первых, цена на нефть остается одним из ключевых экономических показателей российской экономики, определяющих экспорт, обменный курс рубля, прибыль, доходы и расходы бюджета, ...
Added: June 27, 2026
Глазова А. М., Nevalennyi M., Синяков А. А., / Банк России. Серия Препринты Банка России "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2025. № 154.
The paper proposes a graphical model of a small open economy. The dynamics of the graphical model is then illustrated using impulse responses from the corresponding formal semi-structural model (QPM model). The authors have several goals in preparing this description of the graphical macroeconomic model. The first goal of the paper is to present an adapted ...
Added: June 27, 2026
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Canzoneri M. et al., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Added: June 27, 2026
Antonova N., В кн.: Психология коучинга: методология, теория, практика. Доказательный подход.: Чебоксары: ИД «Среда», 2026. С. 135–140.
This article presents an integrative analysis of cognitive-behavioral coaching as a scientifically based helping practice. It explores the theoretical foundations of the approach, its differences from cognitive-behavioral therapy, the methodological structure of coaching, key models, and the logic of transitioning from a model to a protocol. Particular attention is paid to the evidence base: international studies on the ...
Added: June 12, 2026
Bogatyrev R., Sandomirskaia M., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series EC "Economics". 2026. No. 19(1).
This work develops a tractable model of price competition in fragmented markets where consumers consider both local and distant varieties, with cross-regional purchases subject to stochastic costs. Global competition and full localization emerge as polar cases; hybrid competition is not merely intermediate and exhibits distinctive features such as an endogenous price ceiling and non-monotonic entry ...
Added: June 11, 2026