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Прогноз и моделирование кризисов и мировой динамики
M. :
LKI, 2010.
Editor-in-chief: Akaev A., Korotayev A., Малинецкий Г.
Chapters
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., В кн.: Прогноз и моделирование кризисов и мировой динамики.: М.: ЛКИ, 2010. С. 287–299.
В нижеизложенной модели мы попытались кратко описать основные черты среднесрочного цикла деловой активности, или бизнес-цикла (7–11 лет), получившего также название цикла Жюгляра, по имени известного французского экономиста XIX века Клемента Жюгляра (1819–1905), обстоятельно исследовавшего эти циклы (Juglar 1862, 1889)[1]. Важнейшей заслугой Жюгляра было то, что он убедительно доказал именно периодичность кризисов. Центральным механизмом циклического колебания ...
Added: October 15, 2014
Курылев К. П., Degterev D. A., Грачиков Е. Н. et al., Постсоветские исследования 2022 Т. 5 № 7 С. 754–763
This article is based on the understanding of the results of a one-name methodological
seminar organized and conducted by the Department of Theory and History of International Relations
of the Russian Academy of Sciences on September 8, 2022, in which the issues of the nature and
features of the USSR foreign policy for the period from 1971 to ...
Added: July 18, 2026
Амара Д., Degterev D. A., Эгамов Б., Проблемы национальной стратегии 2022 № 2(71) С. 76–101
The article presents an analysis of the UN personnel, engaged in African peacekeeping operations, from the perspective of emerging blocks of the «collective West» and the «collective non-West». The rationale for choosing the UN African peacekeeping missions as the subject for the study is that they are the most numerous, multi-format, expensive, and lethal ones ...
Added: July 18, 2026
Degterev D. A., Морозенская Е. В., Азия и Африка сегодня 2026 № 7 С. 73–77
Abstract
The International Scientific Conference “Strategies for Industrial Development of African Countries,” attended by representatives of the domestic and international (primarily African) academic community, as well as representatives of Russian government agencies and business circles, was held at the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences by the Center for Transition Economy Studies ...
Added: July 18, 2026
Lukin A., Telos 2026 No. 215 P. 11–41
The year 2026 marks the sixtieth anniversary of the beginning in China of the “Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution” – an unprecedented political campaign both in its duration and in the tragic nature of its results and consequences. Despite the publication of numerous books and articles devoted to it in various countries around the world, its ...
Added: July 18, 2026
Katchanov Y. L., Социологический журнал 2026 Т. 32 № 2 С. 59–77
The concept of the “scientific elite” as a heuristic principle and a framework for sociological analysis carries the implicit assumption of the inherent superiority of a small number of 'outstanding scientists.' This paper introduces the space of science as a multidimensional distribution of agents of knowledge production across relative positions. The space of science is ...
Added: July 18, 2026
Mozhaysky A., Schole. Философское антиковедение и классическая традиция 2026 Т. 20 № 2 С. 1105–1116
This article examines the education of Epaminondas, the most famous Theban military and political figure. However, in antiquity, Epaminondas was also renowned for his education and philosophical authority. The study demonstrates that Epaminondas' education encompassed a complex set of local teachings, which Pausanias describes as
ἐπιχώρια διδάγματα. However, Epaminondas' education differed from that of most members ...
Added: July 17, 2026
Talking about the [same] revolution? A comparative analysis of main datasets of revolutionary events
Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Defence and peace economics 2026 P. 1–31
We conduct a comparative analysis of the main datasets on revolutionary events, including The Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO, versions 1.3 and 2.1), Cross-National Time-Series (CNTS), Revolutionary Episodes Dataset by Mark Beissinger, Revolutionary Database by HSE University (CSRA), and Historical Regime Data (HRD). To compare these sources systematically, we develop several complementary empirical instruments designed to identify and interpret differences across datasets. We ...
Added: July 17, 2026
Михайлов И. А., М.: ФГБУ "Издательство "Наука", 2023.
Предложены основные направления совершенствования планирования, организации и оплаты медицинской помощи, лекарственного обеспечения, информатизации и оценки технологий здравоохранения. Рекомендованы такие мероприятия, как конкретизация программы государственных гарантий бесплатного оказания гражданам медицинской помощи, создание системы общедоступного лекарственного обеспечения, использование клинико-статистических групп для оплаты медицинской помощи при ряде хронических неинфекционных заболеваний в амбулаторных условиях, формирование механизма привлечения соплатежей при ...
Added: July 16, 2026
Emelyanova O., Восток. Афро-азиатские общества: история и современность 2024 No. 1 P. 153–164
Food security in Japan has been under observation of analytics in both Japan and abroad as it is one of the key national security issues. Leading academic researchers of this issue in Japan include Suzuki N., Takeya T.,Yamamoto R. and Oguchi H. However, the main focus of their analysis is the social aspect. The English ...
Added: July 16, 2026
Aleshin D., Бирюков Е. С., Булатов А. С. et al., Аспект Пресс, 2025.
Учебное пособие подготовлено коллективом российских экономистов-международников, преимущественно из МГИМО. Оно посвящено анализу особенностей незападных экономических систем, а также участия данных стран в международных экономических отношениях.
Структурно учебное пособие состоит из трех разделов и 23 глав. Первый раздел посвящен различным аспектам методологии анализа незападных экономических систем. Приводятся как современные западные концепции классификации экономических систем, так и критические, а также незападные подходы к развитию (в том числе периферийная ...
Added: July 15, 2026
Degterev D. A., Степанова В. С., Международное право и международные организации 2025 № 3 С. 93–109
The issues of monetary cooperation between France and the member states of the West African Monetary Union (WAMU) have received wide coverage in academic literature. However, the phenomenon of the CFA franc as the "last colonial currency" of Africa is considered mainly in a journalistic vein, in a political and historical context, less often – ...
Added: July 15, 2026
Букина А. А., Eritsyan K., Antonova N. et al., Frontiers in Psychology 2026
Background:
Numerous studies have shown that indigenous populations experience poorer health outcomes compared to people with other backgrounds. However, the interpretation of these disparities remains challenging due to differences in living conditions and social environments, as well as by potential measurement-related biases. Little is known about whether the underlying mechanisms of mental health outcomes differ between ...
Added: July 15, 2026
Degterev D. A., Кирикова Т. Н., Россия и мир: научный диалог 2025 № 4 С. 37–57
This study focuses on the African policy of the Trump administration during his second term. The authors analyze why the formal framework for strategic planning in Africa proved too restrictive for the new US administration. Particular attention is paid to the consistent decline in international aid as a part of US African strategy. During Trump’s ...
Added: July 15, 2026
Pozanenko A., Социологические исследования 2026 № 6 С. 64–71
Due to persistent territorial socio-economic imbalances, some residents of Russian villages and small towns leave for a long time to work without changing their place of permanent residence. Such internal temporary labor migration is referred to by some researchers as otkhodnichestvo, and migrants as otkhodniks, by analogy with the pre–revolutionary and early Soviet migration of ...
Added: July 15, 2026
Denisova V., Petrović N., Journal of Rational - Emotive and Cognitive - Behavior Therapy 2026 Vol. 44 No. 35 P. 1–16
Cognitive distortions are routinely described in cognitive-behavioral (CBT) and rational-emotive behavior (REBT) therapies as “errors in logic” or “illogical thinking.” While this terminology is pedagogically convenient, it often obscures a crucial conceptual distinction between violations of logical inference and problems related to the justification, scope, or evaluative force of belief content. In this paper, we do not ...
Added: July 15, 2026
Antonova N., Федулова Е. В., Психологические исследования: электронный научный журнал 2026 Т. 19 № 107 С.
The aim of this article is to analyze the theoretical and methodological foundations of cognitive-behavioral coaching and to identify prospects for its further development and research. The article examines the historical prerequisites for the emergence of cognitive-behavioral coaching as a helping practice. The distinctions between cognitive-behavioral coaching (CBC) and cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) are analyzed. The ...
Added: June 29, 2026
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Kim J., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Within narrowly defined industries, the most productive firms produce far more than the least productive from the same inputs, and this dispersion widens in downturns. We build a tractable representative-agent model in which financial frictions—adverse selection and moral hazard—make firms sort endogenously into lenders, strategic defaulters, and producers. As credit conditions vary, the resulting misallocation ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Власов С. А., Nevalennyi M., Сафиулин Р. Р. et al., / Банк России. Серия Аналитическая записка "Материалы Банка России". 2026.
В аналитической записке обсуждается долгосрочно устойчивый уровень цены на российскую нефть. Это тот уровень, к которому цена нефти, вероятнее всего, будет тяготеть в долгосрочной перспективе. Потребность в его определении возникает по нескольким причинам. Во-первых, цена на нефть остается одним из ключевых экономических показателей российской экономики, определяющих экспорт, обменный курс рубля, прибыль, доходы и расходы бюджета, ...
Added: June 27, 2026
Глазова А. М., Nevalennyi M., Синяков А. А., / Банк России. Серия Препринты Банка России "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2025. № 154.
The paper proposes a graphical model of a small open economy. The dynamics of the graphical model is then illustrated using impulse responses from the corresponding formal semi-structural model (QPM model). The authors have several goals in preparing this description of the graphical macroeconomic model. The first goal of the paper is to present an adapted ...
Added: June 27, 2026
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Canzoneri M. et al., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Added: June 27, 2026
Antonova N., В кн.: Психология коучинга: методология, теория, практика. Доказательный подход.: Чебоксары: ИД «Среда», 2026. С. 135–140.
This article presents an integrative analysis of cognitive-behavioral coaching as a scientifically based helping practice. It explores the theoretical foundations of the approach, its differences from cognitive-behavioral therapy, the methodological structure of coaching, key models, and the logic of transitioning from a model to a protocol. Particular attention is paid to the evidence base: international studies on the ...
Added: June 12, 2026
Bogatyrev R., Sandomirskaia M., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series EC "Economics". 2026. No. 19(1).
This work develops a tractable model of price competition in fragmented markets where consumers consider both local and distant varieties, with cross-regional purchases subject to stochastic costs. Global competition and full localization emerge as polar cases; hybrid competition is not merely intermediate and exhibits distinctive features such as an endogenous price ceiling and non-monotonic entry ...
Added: June 11, 2026
Kravtsova M., Musaev A. U., Welzel C., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Elaborating on Welzel et al.'s "Cool Water Theory," our study zooms into the more limited (albeit still varied) framework conditions of Russia's huge territory. Within Russia's confines, we examine how the combination of moderately cool seasons with steady rain (i.e., Cool Water) affects sub-national areas' contemporary societal progress in two modernization indicators: material prosperity in ...
Added: June 3, 2026
Kudriavtseva E., / РЦИС. Серия № 0148-756-286. 2026.
The content of the work is the system is a system for identifying four types of written speech structures. A set of 11 calculated parameters, statistical standards, and semantic characteristics allows for the identification of a text's structure as the result of a specific cognitive schema (scene, event, story, evaluation). The method has been verified ...
Added: June 2, 2026