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Прогноз и моделирование кризисов и мировой динамики
M. :
LKI, 2010.
Editor-in-chief: Akaev A., Korotayev A., Малинецкий Г.
Chapters
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., В кн.: Прогноз и моделирование кризисов и мировой динамики.: М.: ЛКИ, 2010. С. 287–299.
В нижеизложенной модели мы попытались кратко описать основные черты среднесрочного цикла деловой активности, или бизнес-цикла (7–11 лет), получившего также название цикла Жюгляра, по имени известного французского экономиста XIX века Клемента Жюгляра (1819–1905), обстоятельно исследовавшего эти циклы (Juglar 1862, 1889)[1]. Важнейшей заслугой Жюгляра было то, что он убедительно доказал именно периодичность кризисов. Центральным механизмом циклического колебания ...
Added: October 15, 2014
Tikhomirova A., Professional Discourse & Communication 2026 Vol. 8 No. 3 P. 66–84
Given China’s rise as the world’s leading automotive producer and the radical
transformation of the Russian market, societal acceptance of new market entrants remains a dif
ficult communicative task. Against the backdrop of growing sales and persistent consumer am
bivalence, this study examines how Russian consumers discursively construct, challenge, and
renegotiate the legitimacy of Chinese automobile brands in online ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Шмитт К., Праксис, 2026.
The classic work of the famous German jurist and political theorist Carl Schmitt is devoted to reflections on the partisan as a "key figure in world history", starting with its appearance during the struggle of the Spanish people against the Napoleonic troops in 1808-1813 and ending with the consideration of historical destinies and the political ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Dmitriev T., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2026 № 2 С. 6–20
The article is devoted to the thematization of conceptions
of freedom (la libertà) in the political teaching of Niccolò Machiavelli. Drawing
on a close reading of the Florentine thinker’s works The Prince and Discourses
on the First Decade of Titus Livy, the author concludes that Machiavelli’s
concept of freedom does not have a single meaning, but rather
several fundamental ones. Among ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Kosevich E., Problems of Post-Communism 2026 P. 1–21
Since 2022, the Kremlin has revised its foreign policy priorities. Russia’s traditional Western partners have been designated as “unfriendly countries,” and Moscow has increasingly focused on intensifying rapprochement with states in the Global South, with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), as the US’ closest neighbors, occupying a special place in this strategy. The region ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Финагин М. И., Мирошниченко Д. В., Прикладная эконометрика 2026 Т. 82 С. 105–123
We construct a monthly indicator and produce a nowcast of nominal GDP in Russia using operational
data. The data used are bank statements and the ruble price of Russian oil. This approach
allows for the nowcast of nominal GDP ahead of official statistics by 3–5 months. Nominal GDP
data is published by Rosstat only on a quarterly basis ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Oxford University Press, 2026.
Traditionally, a justification for believing something is a priori if and only if it is independent of experience. Throughout Western philosophy ever since Plato, some of the most divisive questions have been whether a priori justification exists, how it is possible, and how far it reaches. This book is structured around these three main questions. ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Simachev Y. V., Ruzhanskaya L., Саблин К. С., ЭКО 2026 № 4 С. 55–82
Energy security concerns, environmental constraints, and competition
with other energy sources—combined with the disruption of established global value
chains—are forcing Russian coal companies to undergo transformation. Based on an
analysis of statistical data and the results of in-depth interviews with experts conducted
from August 2024 to January 2025, this study identifies the main challenges facing
the development of Russia’s coal ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Мн.: Нацыянальная бібліятэка Беларусі, 2026.
Зборнік змяшчае матэрыялы VI Міжнароднай навуковай канферэн цыі, прысвечанай 395-годдзю з дня нараджэння Сімяона Полацкага і 30-годдзю Музея-бібліятэкі Сімяона Полацкага. Канферэнцыя адбылася ў лістападзе 2024 г. у Нацыянальным Полацкім гісторыка-культурным музеі-запаведніку. ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Kazun A., Девятников В. Ю., Белов М. Д., Вопросы теоретической экономики 2026 Т. 3 № 32 С. 115–135
Как понять, хорош адвокат или нет? В данной статье мы описываем методологию, позволяющую измерять качество юридической помощи через разницу между тем, что предсказывает модель машинного обучения по объективным характеристикам дела, и тем, чем дело закончилось в реальности. Мы исходим из предпосылки, что если у адвоката дела стабильно заканчиваются лучше ожидаемого, то он делает свою работу хорошо. ...
Added: August 28, 2026
Melnik D. V., Вопросы теоретической экономики 2026 № 3 С. 65–82
Luigi Einaudi (1874–1961) was a prominent economist who made theoretical contributions to the Italian school of public finance, an influential professor, a brilliant publicist, and an outstanding statesman who served as president of the nation from 1948 to 1955, and whose activities laid the foundations for the institution of the presidency of the Italian Republic. ...
Added: August 27, 2026
Lysenok N., Финансовый журнал 2026 Т. 18 № 4 С. 45–63
The article discusses the application of clustering methods to form an optimal investment portfolio
that allows the investor to achieve an effective risk-reward ratio. Three popular clustering methods,
K-Means, MeanShift, and DBSCAN, are examined. The article focuses on the DBSCAN clustering method
and highlights its advantages over other clustering methods in the context of financial data analysis.
DBSCAN is ...
Added: August 27, 2026
Panova A., Ostrovnaya M., Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization 2026 Vol. 34 No. 2 P. 199–226
Local authorities can crucially affect the economic performance of public organizations. Using data on the Moscow region, we analyze the unique case of a huge, socio-economically homogeneous region with differing political environments. We examine how the political characteristics of local authorities influence state schools’ decisions on whether to outsource non-core activities, in this case food ...
Added: August 27, 2026
Шарко О. В., Шарко Е.Р., Маркетинг в России и за рубежом 2026 Т. 2 № 172 С. 71–79
The paper analyses scholarly understanding of consumer behaviour in e-commerce by synthesizing recent advances in digital marketing, the dynamics of online retail platforms, and empirical models of customer interaction. The research outcomes include a detailed comprehension of the mechanisms underlying customer loyalty, empirical data on the multidimensional factors influencing platform preferences, and methodological innovations applicable ...
Added: August 26, 2026
Almakaeva A., Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены 2026 № 1 С. 3–16
This paper examines the benefits and drawbacks of longitudinal (panel) studies. It highlights their enormous potential for researching social transformations, individual life course, causal links, and the outcomes of different social and policy initiatives. Significant drawbacks of this design cover organizational and financial costs, panel attrition, panel conditioning and seam effects. The text describes several ...
Added: August 26, 2026
Vagin S., Управление 2025 Т. 12 № 3 С. 74–82
The purpose of the article is to evaluate theoretical approaches to the study of various scientific and practical approaches of sustainable economic development. The author of the work has the following tasks: to conduct a comparative assessment of various scientists and economists studying theoretical approaches of sustainable strategic development of innovative potential of industrial enterprises; ...
Added: July 29, 2026
Zhuravleva T., Afanasev K., Engelmann J. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Extortionary ("harassment") bribery can persist even when widely condemned, consistent with a coordination problem sustained by beliefs about what others do and what others consider acceptable. We study whether a minimal institutional featurethe presence of a third-party monitor empowered to punish-shifts (i) normative expectations about extortion and compliance and (ii) empirical expectations about their prevalence. ...
Added: July 22, 2026
Antonova N., Федулова Е. В., Психологические исследования: электронный научный журнал 2026 Т. 19 № 107 Статья 3
The aim of this article is to analyze the theoretical and methodological foundations of cognitive-behavioral coaching and to identify prospects for its further development and research. The article examines the historical prerequisites for the emergence of cognitive-behavioral coaching as a helping practice. The distinctions between cognitive-behavioral coaching (CBC) and cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) are analyzed. The ...
Added: June 29, 2026
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Kim J., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Within narrowly defined industries, the most productive firms produce far more than the least productive from the same inputs, and this dispersion widens in downturns. We build a tractable representative-agent model in which financial frictions—adverse selection and moral hazard—make firms sort endogenously into lenders, strategic defaulters, and producers. As credit conditions vary, the resulting misallocation ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Власов С. А., Nevalennyi M., Сафиулин Р. Р. et al., / Банк России. Серия Аналитическая записка "Материалы Банка России". 2026.
В аналитической записке обсуждается долгосрочно устойчивый уровень цены на российскую нефть. Это тот уровень, к которому цена нефти, вероятнее всего, будет тяготеть в долгосрочной перспективе. Потребность в его определении возникает по нескольким причинам. Во-первых, цена на нефть остается одним из ключевых экономических показателей российской экономики, определяющих экспорт, обменный курс рубля, прибыль, доходы и расходы бюджета, ...
Added: June 27, 2026
Глазова А. М., Nevalennyi M., Синяков А. А., / Банк России. Серия Препринты Банка России "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2025. № 154.
The paper proposes a graphical model of a small open economy. The dynamics of the graphical model is then illustrated using impulse responses from the corresponding formal semi-structural model (QPM model). The authors have several goals in preparing this description of the graphical macroeconomic model. The first goal of the paper is to present an adapted ...
Added: June 27, 2026
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Canzoneri M. et al., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Added: June 27, 2026
Antonova N., В кн.: Психология коучинга: методология, теория, практика. Доказательный подход.: Чебоксары: ИД «Среда», 2026. С. 135–140.
This article presents an integrative analysis of cognitive-behavioral coaching as a scientifically based helping practice. It explores the theoretical foundations of the approach, its differences from cognitive-behavioral therapy, the methodological structure of coaching, key models, and the logic of transitioning from a model to a protocol. Particular attention is paid to the evidence base: international studies on the ...
Added: June 12, 2026
Bogatyrev R., Sandomirskaia M., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series EC "Economics". 2026. No. 19(1).
This work develops a tractable model of price competition in fragmented markets where consumers consider both local and distant varieties, with cross-regional purchases subject to stochastic costs. Global competition and full localization emerge as polar cases; hybrid competition is not merely intermediate and exhibits distinctive features such as an endogenous price ceiling and non-monotonic entry ...
Added: June 11, 2026
Kravtsova M., Musaev A. U., Welzel C., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Elaborating on Welzel et al.'s "Cool Water Theory," our study zooms into the more limited (albeit still varied) framework conditions of Russia's huge territory. Within Russia's confines, we examine how the combination of moderately cool seasons with steady rain (i.e., Cool Water) affects sub-national areas' contemporary societal progress in two modernization indicators: material prosperity in ...
Added: June 3, 2026