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Введение. Циклы, кризисы, ловушки в аспекте «Истории и Математики»
С. 5–17.
In book
Волгоград: Учитель, 2014.
Leonid E. Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev, Jameelah M. Musieva, Iberoamérica 2026 No. 1 P. 22–47
The main objective of this article is to analyze the transformation of the world order in the context of the transition to a multipolar system, in which the BRICS+ alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) would play a key role. This article addresses the problem of leadership in the absence of an absolute ...
Added: April 13, 2026
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Гринин Л.Е., Коротаев А.В., Век глобализации 2025 № 4 С. 188–202
Although the world is being divided into zones in this regard, contradictions between developed and developing countries have increased, and globalization is rolling back, nevertheless, the common goals that were prioritized by most countries of the World System until recently have not gone away. In the worst case, their implementation will be delayed for some ...
Added: November 27, 2025
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Век глобализации 2024 № 4 С. 20–34
The article formulates the author's vision and some forecasts regarding: 1) the prospects for the development of the African continent in the future due to its rapid development and increasing role in the World System; 2) the geopolitical rivalry of the leading powers in Africa in the present and in the future; 3) the directions ...
Added: November 8, 2024
Садовничий В. А., Akaev A., Ильин И. В. et al., История и современность 2022 № 2 С. 124–138
This article discusses the methodological approach on the basis of which the report to the Club of Rome studies the processes taking place in the world in recent decades. This approach is called macro-historical by the authors. It is based on the analysis of ongoing processes in a broad and long-term historical context, as well ...
Added: December 14, 2022
Leonid Grinin, Korotayev A., World Futures 2022 P. 1–22
At present the World System is undergoing considerable transformations. We expect that in connection with the World System reconfiguration the number of revolutions as well as their role as a means of the world-system transformation may increase noticeably. We analyze the future of revolutions in a number of aspects, namely: (1) the evaluation of their ...
Added: July 30, 2022
Mozhaysky A., Издателство “ИТИ”, 2020.
В статье представлен анализ микенских контактов с Египтом и Сиро-Палестинским регионом, который показывает, что эгейский экспорт имел второстепенное значение для цивилизаций Восточного Средиземноморья. Данные контакты, в основном, представляли собой маломасштабный торговый обмен или дарообмен между элитами. Показано посредничество Кипра в деле распространения микенских артефактов далее на Восток, особенно в Сиро-Палестинский регион. На микро-историческом уровне прослежены ...
Added: April 27, 2022
Mozhaysky A., Thracia Balcanica (Болгария) 2022 № 1 С. 261–274
Added: April 25, 2022
ЛЕНАНД, 2021.
В центре внимания данной книги находится афразийская макрозона нестабильности, простирающаяся от Сахеля (т. е. африканских стран, расположенных непосредственно к югу от Сахары) через Северную Африку, Ближний и Средний Восток до постсоветской Центральной Азии. С другой стороны, для понимания закономерностей дестабилизационных процессов в этой макрозоне требуется уточнить общие закономерности возникновения социально-политической нестабильности и революций. Разработка же ...
Added: January 12, 2022
Uvarov P. Y., В кн.: Terra Eurasica: К 60-летию академика Б. В. Базарова: Сборник научных статей.: Иркутск: Оттиск, 2020. С. 16–31.
В самом конце 2019 г. вышло новое, исправленное и дополненное "Всемирной истории в 6 томах". В статье анализируется второй том этого издания, посвященный Средним векам. Синхронизация социально-экономических, политических и культурных процессов, происходивших в разных регионах Азии, Европы и Африки, позволяет усмотреть в разнообразии региональных различий определенное единство средневековой Мир-Системы, или же Ойкумены средневекового мира. По ...
Added: March 8, 2021
Gloveli G., В кн.: Экономические теории в пространстве и времени.: СПб.: Алетейя, 2020. Гл. 3 С. 54–72.
Paper is dedicated to the protoanalysis of national competitiveness in W. Petty’ s “Political Arithmetic” as a corollary of mercantilist reasoning as regards сauses of Dutch Miracle. In accordance with Wallerstein’ s World-System Approach balance-of-trade doctrine is estimated as the discourse encouraged by Dutch Hegemony as well as rivalry in the North-West-European core since the ...
Added: December 11, 2020
Grinin L. E., Век глобализации 2019 № 1 С. 18–34
Islamism appears one of the most important phenomena of our times and it greatly affects many global processes. In the Muslim world one can hardly find
a country where Islamism would not be an influential and stable political factor. It seems impossible to comprehend modern Muslim (especially Arab) societies without taking into account the role of ...
Added: November 14, 2019
Korotayev A., Grinin L. E., , in: Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy. World System and World Values Perspectives.: Dordrecht: Springer, 2019. P. 347–364.
The events of the Arab Spring can be analyzed in two dimensions: first, with respect to internal and global causes and second, in terms of their influence on the future scenarios of the World System development. Such a view we use in this concluding chapter. We explain the amazing synchronization of social upheavals in a ...
Added: October 13, 2018
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Tausch A., Dordrecht: Springer, 2019.
This book provides an in-depth analysis of public opinion patterns among Muslims, particularly in the Arab world. On the basis of data from the World Values Survey, the Arab Barometer Project and the Arab Opinion Index, it compares the dynamics of Muslim opinion structures with global publics and arrives at social scientific predictions of value ...
Added: September 29, 2018
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Issaev L. et al., / Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ. Серия IR "International Relations". 2017. № WP BRP 29/IR/2017.
The present working paper analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth ...
Added: April 16, 2017
Grinin L. E., История и современность 2016 № 1 С. 20–63
The article studies the evolution of the world order starting to form from the ancient times as well as the main factors, principles, and ideas underlying the establishment and change of this order. The author analyzes the way the world order based on the American hegemony was formed, developed and how it has started to ...
Added: June 14, 2016
Grinin L. E., Гринин А., Credo new 2016 № 2
In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. ...
Added: June 14, 2016
Grinin L. E., Век глобализации 2016 № 1-2 С. 3–18
The author argues what and why should change for the formation of the new world order and what will be the directions and patterns of the formation of this new world order as well as what will be the foundations of this world order and possible mechanisms of its establishment. The author proceeds from the ...
Added: June 14, 2016
Grinin L. E., Философия и общество 2015 № 3-4 С. 7–33
The global order as a system of certain ideas and regularities predominant in the world politics had started to emerge in Europe in the sixteenth century and was finally established in the nineteenth century. However, an established world order usually endures for three-four decades and then it changes under the influence of the changing circumstances ...
Added: June 10, 2016
Korotayev A., Issaev L., Shishkina A. et al., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков. Украинский разломТ. 6.: М.: Учитель, 2015. Гл. 1 С. 4–19.
В последние несколько лет нестабильность в мире усиливалась. К сожалению, это, по-видимому, не случайно, а представляет начало определенного и довольно длительного тренда. Однако чем может объясняться такой поворот в глобальных политических отношениях? Скорее всего здесь действует целый ряд факторов, в том числе и тот, что мир вступил в полосу депрессивного экономического развития; это усиливает социальную напряженность и трения ...
Added: January 22, 2016
Grinin L. E., Век глобализации 2015 № 2 С. 2–17
The present article considers the process of the formation, development and weakening of the world order based on the American hegemony. The ori-gins of the current world order are analyzed. The article presents the analysis of the characteristic features and methods applied by the USA to maintain their position in the world. The author shows ...
Added: November 5, 2015
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., Историческая психология и социология истории 2015 Т. 8 № 1 С. 172–197
In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and produc-tion revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. ...
Added: October 9, 2015
М.: Учитель, 2015.
В настоящей коллективной монографии представлены некоторые результаты исследований, проведенных в рамках проекта РНФ № 14-11-00634 «Математиче-ские методы прогнозирования мирового и странового социально-экономического развития». Целью проекта является разработка методологии, математических мето-дов и моделей для анализа и прогнозирования современных макротенденций и циклов экономической, демографической, политической, социальной, культурной и технологической мировой, региональной и национальной динамики в интересах научного ...
Added: June 8, 2015