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Экономическая интеграция в Азиатско-Тихоокенском регионе: новая реальность
In early 21st century, the economic interdependence in Asia Pacific reached a historically high level. Gravity forces between economies break existing barriers. What used to be an imaginary development, nowadays has become real: negotiations for a single East Asian economic grouping centered on China and a Trans-Pacific block propelled by the US. EU follows the suit and signals a pivot towards Asia by launching free trade negotiations with Japan and a few ASEAN members.
The author argues that a new reality of economic integration is emerging in Asia Pacific. To explain its patterns, he distinguishes de facto and de jure economic integration, or regionalisation and regionalism.
De facto integration occurs thanks to market forces and comparative advantage, where production systems evolve from local clusterisation towards international fragmentation, therefore enabling international production networks, or supply chains. This phenomenon is well known in Asia Pacific as it lead to the emergence of the ‘Factory Asia’. The author uses various measures to show that East Asia has already become a highly interdependent and integrated production base featuring sophisticated supply chains largely oriented to meeting final demand from the US and Europe.
De jure integration results from reciprocal commitments to open national markets and harmonize trade policies, formalised through inter-governmental agreements, primarily free trade agreements (FTAs). Several waves of regionalism may be discerned since 1950s but it was only in 2000s that the economies of Asia Pacific became active FTA proponents. East Asian economies which have long championed integration by markets rather than integration by agreements, are now deeply involved in regionalism and bilateralism.
Finally, the author asserts that 2010s brought about a new reality, integration of mega-regionals: US and Japan within the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Japan–EU Economic Partnership Agreement and US–EU Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. China, South Korea and Japan have also launched negotiations for a trilateral FTA. Mega-regional blocks are likely to shape the future global trade system. In Asia Pacific alone, two mega-negotiations are under way: for the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Author suggests that the new reality is no good news for Russia which is caught in a belated regionalism trap: it needs pursuing its own integration initiative with the Eurasian neighbours, at the expense of being left out of the Asia Pacific economic integration.
