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Comparative Assessment of Methods for Calculating the Carbon Sequestration Potential of Croplands in Russia Based on Dynamic Modelling
The RothC dynamic carbon model was used to assess the sequestration potential of arable soils in Russia. Two methods were compared to calculate C input into the soil. The approach used in the Global Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration Potential Map (GSOCseq) involves calculating the net primary production (NPP) from remote sensing data, assuming a proportional relationship between NPP and C input. An alternative approach was based on calculating C input from data on area and crop yields per harvested area. The objective of this study was to evaluate sub-databases using data from the Moscow, Tver and Rostov regions of Russia as a case study to refine calculations of organic C inputs, aiming to better approximate actual values. Modelling was performed at the level of second-tier administrative-territorial units (e.g., districts) with a spatial resolution of 1 km for the top 30 cm of arable soils. Soils in this region range from soddy-podzolic soils in the north to Chernozems in the south (Retisols and Chernozems, respectively, according to the WRB classification). Predicted results demonstrated C accumulation rates up to 0.2 t C/ha/year over the next 20 years. The research conducted has shown that the proposed approach based on actual statistical data is feasible and can be extended to other subjects of the Russian Federation. It is promising for the quantitative assessment of changes in soil C stocks and mitigation actions at the national level.