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Опережающие индикаторы рецессии: анализ панельных данных стран ОЭСР и России
С. 193–206.
Pestova A.
Language:
Russian
In book
М.: Издательский дом НИУ ВШЭ, 2014.
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., Качур А. С., Вопросы экономики 2024 № 2 С. 23–48
The specificity of macroeconomic forecasts is determined not so much by the list of predicted indicators or by mathematical tools used, but by the unavoidable human factor, which often generates great difference between forecasts made by various professionals. In Russian-language literature, this psychological aspect of macroeconomic forecasting has not received any attention; our work is designed to fill this gap. ...
Added: February 8, 2024
Smirnov S. V., Олейник Е. Б., Коваленко С. С., Вопросы экономики 2023 № 10 С. 75–97
In recent decades, predicting turning points of economic cycles (their peaks and troughs) using leading indicators has established itself as a fairly simple, clear and at the same time reliable method. But the world experience has shown that any system of leading indicators requires revision and clarification from time to time. The recent non-economic shocks ...
Added: October 25, 2023
Molodyko K., BRICS Law Journal 2023 Vol. 10 No. 3 P. 87–105
In the process of reducing the speculative financial adjustment that artificially stimulates consumer demand in developed countries, the importance of suppliers of physical goods (commodities) from developing countries will increase. I don’t believe in a complete dictate of commodities producers because they are dependent on counter deliveries of technologies from developed countries. However, relationships will ...
Added: October 12, 2023
Kotyrlo E., В кн.: Mendeley Data.: Mendeley Data, 2023. Гл. 1.
В приложении размещены дополнительные данные по исследованию "Не хлебом единым: удовлетворенность работой бюджетников в сравнении с работниками частного сектора" ...
Added: June 15, 2023
Grigoryev L. M., Майхрович М. Я., Serova D. et al., Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика 2022 Т. 17 № 4 С. 7–37
Sociocultural factors have become a one of the priority areas in research within the framework of theories of long-term development. This article discusses the parameters of groups of countries (values of survival-self-expression and traditional-secular-rational values) according to the Inglehart- Welzel cultural map, along with other sociocultural and socioeconomic indicators. The significant cumulative advantage (gross domestic ...
Added: October 28, 2022
Smirnov S. V., Смирнов С. С., Вопросы экономики 2022 № 5 С. 26–50
Modern economic life is characterized by an exponential increase of available
information and a shortening time for decision-making. Hence, the necessity for
more timely composite macroeconomic indicators is increasing (objectively), but
the supply of such instruments lags behind the demand. This paper develops
the daily Economic Stress Index (ESI) for the Russian Federation. It differs from
all previously proposed Russian ...
Added: May 26, 2022
Akindinova N., Avdeeva D., Kondrashov N. V. et al., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2021 Т. 4 № 52 С. 239–246
The article puts forward the thesis that the COVID–19 recession has already passed, which makes it possible to make some other conclusions. It is emphasized that the recession was triggered mainly by temporary restrictions on social contacts and mobility that were “external” to the economy. For Russia, it was aggravated by discords among the OPEC+ ...
Added: December 28, 2021
Grigoryev L. M., Ёлкина З. С., Медникова П. А. et al., Вопросы экономики 2021 № 10 С. 27–50
Пандемия COVID-19 вынудила правительства практически всех стран ввести в 2020 году локдауны, что резко сократило предложение в ряде крупных секторов услуг: транспорт, рекреация, общественное питание, туризм. Рецессия началась без кризиса, а уникальное по масштабам предложение дешевых денег и фискальных стимулов предотвратило развитие «сжатия ликвидности». Напротив, оно привело к росту курсов акций, цен на недвижимость, сокращению ...
Added: September 20, 2021
Kolosnitsyna M., Ермолина Ю. Е., Вопросы статистики 2021 Т. 28 № 3 С. 70–85
This paper aims to identify the relationship between public spending on education and GDP in two groups of countries: members and non-members of the OECD, based on statistical and econometric methods, including the methodology for international comparative analysis. The two selected groups of countries differ in their level of economic development: the OECD, the so-called ...
Added: June 30, 2021
Grigoryev L. M., Grigorieva N., Вопросы экономики 2021 № 1 С. 98–119
Драма уникальной пандемии, небывало острой рецессии и критически важных президентских выборов поставила общество США в 2020 г. перед трудным выбором. В социально-экономическом развитии США в XXI в. произошла серия потрясений, которые оказали огромное влияние на мировое развитие. Страна сохранила положение лидера среди развитых стран по совокупности экономической мощи, инновационному развитию, динамичности подъемов. В последние три ...
Added: January 11, 2021
Vakulenko E., Экономика региона 2020 Т. 16 № 4 С. 1193–1207
One of the most important characteristics of the labour market is labour mobility that allows assessing the economic efficiency of labour. A comparative analysis is necessary for determining the degree of mobility. In terms of spatial and sectoral characteristics, the paper assesses the degree and dynamics of mobility in the Russian labour market based on ...
Added: December 30, 2020
Бобылева А. З., Anshin V., Птицын А. В., Государственное управление. Электронный вестник 2020 № 81 С. 24–48
В статье выявлены типы глобальных рецессий за период их регулярного наблюдения (с 1850 г.), проведена классификация факторов, их вызвавших, определены черты экономических шоков, сопровождавших предыдущие пандемии, и особенности рецессии 2020 г., связанной с пандемией COVID-19. Аналитический обзор типовых мер и особенностей действий отдельных стран по преодолению коронавируса и смягчению его экономических последствий позволил авторам определить ...
Added: October 30, 2020
Smirnov S. V., Вопросы статистики 2020 Т. 27 № 4 С. 53–65
The article provides a brief overview of the background of constructing composite leading indicators (CLI) for Russia; the paper defines key indicators which currently are calculated and published monthly; they can be put in practice to monitor the Russian economy. The underlying methodological approaches are analyzed, along with their advantages and disadvantages. The importance of ...
Added: August 25, 2020
Граница Ю. В., Региональная экономика: теория и практика 2019 Т. 17 № 8 С. 1540–1556
Thing. Analysis of existing and development of copyright methods for assessing the instability of the regional economy
Goals. The study of economic and statistical tools adequate to predict the financial instability of the regional economic system. Specification of models of economic indicators of financial instability, evaluation of their parameters, quality control of models and interpretation of ...
Added: November 22, 2019
Демографический барометр. Демографический и экономический контекст пенсионных реформ в странах ОЭСР.
Scherbakova E. M., Демоскоп Weekly 2018 № 787-788
На основе базы данных ОЭСР рассматриваются демографические и экономические особенности ситуации в странах организации, важные с точки зрения проведения пенсионных реформ. Особое внимание уделено тенденциям изменения демографической нагрузки на население рабочих возрастов, экономического поведения и уровня доходов пожилого населения стран ОЭСР. ...
Added: June 2, 2019
Scherbakova E. M., Демоскоп Weekly 2018 № 755-756
На основе базы данных ОЭСР анализируются тенденции изменения ожидаемой при рождении продолжительности жизни и смертности от основных классов причин смерти. Показано, что в странах ОЭСР продолжительность жизни растет на фоне роста расходов на здравоохранение, доходов и уровня образования населения и снижения некоторых рисков для здоровья (распространенности курения и потребления алкоголя). Степень других рисков для здоровья ...
Added: June 9, 2018
Grigoryev L. M., Lobanova A., Голяшев А. В., Пространственная экономика 2017 № 4 С. 148–169
The article presents the analysis of comparative dynamics of different types of industrial
production in Russian regions from the viewpoint of extractive and processing industries
ratio and a general industrial potential. Special attention is paid to the leading regions of the
country. It is shown that the way out of recession is provided by extractive and electrical
industries that ...
Added: February 26, 2018
Vasin S. A., Kozlov V. A., Демоскоп Weekly 2016 № 697
В статье представлен сравнительный анализ изменений численности и возрастного состава населения России и стран-членов ОЭСР и БРИКС в период до 2015 г. и на перспективу до 2050 г. Обсуждается проблема сопоставимости данных о населении этих стран. Показано, что в 1970-2013 гг. возрастная композиция населения России была «выгоднее», чем в большинстве стран ОЭСР, благодаря сочетанию относительно ...
Added: October 19, 2016
Smirnov S. V., Проблемы теории и практики управления 2016 № 6 С. 109–114
Methodological issues related to designing a system of indicators for tracing Russian business cycle are discussed. Several definitions of economic cycles in their application to the Russian economy are considered. Possible approaches to dating turning points, constructing composite cyclical indicators and their using for monitoring and forecasting cyclical trajectory are analyzed. ...
Added: June 29, 2016
Scherbakova E. M., Демоскоп Weekly 2015 № 661-662
Демографическая ситуация в странах ОЭСР анализируется в контексте долговременных тенденций и возможных перспектив. Рассмотрены различия в тенденциях рождаемости, смертности и миграции, наблюдающиеся между странами ОЭСР. Показана неизбежность сокращения совокупного населения ОЭСР в мировом населении и его старения. ...
Added: June 9, 2016
Smirnov S. V., Avdeeva D., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series EC "Economics". 2016. No. 135.
There is evidence in the economic literature that professional forecasters are unsuccessful in predicting recessions, but the reasons for these failures are still not clear. Meanwhile, this phenomenon has been little studied on the basis of quarterly estimates for various target horizons. We analysed quarterly consensus forecasts of real GDP growth rates and probabilities of ...
Added: May 19, 2016
Zamulin O. A., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2016 Т. 29 № 1 С. 181–185
The observed facts about Russia’s 2015 recession, such as acceleration of inflation and lack of increase in unemployment, lead to conclusion that this recession was caused by supply-side restrictions rather than a fall in aggregate demand. Although it is not easy to identify these restrictions, they may be connected with such things as increased administrative ...
Added: May 16, 2016
Dybskaya V., Логистика и управление цепями поставок 2015 № 6(71) С. 8–15
The article shows the dynamics of the Russian transport and logistics services market in the economic crisis. The changes associated with the negative tendency affects mainly the activities of the real estate companies specialized in the storage facilities. That is why the paper is focused on the consideration of the warehouse real estate market development, ...
Added: March 2, 2016
Smirnov S. V., Kondrashov N. V., Petronevich A., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series EC "Economics". 2016. No. 122.
This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As ...
Added: January 22, 2016