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  • Оценка качества краткосрочных прогнозов некоторых российских экономических показателей
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News
May 14, 2026
Resource Race and Green Transition: Three Unexpected Conclusions from Foresight Centres Research on Climate and Poverty
Beneath the surface of green energy—which most people associate with solar panels, electric vehicles, and reduced CO2 emissions—lies a complex web of geopolitical interests, international inequality, and resource constraints. Researchers from the Laboratory for Science and Technology Studies (LST) at the HSE ISSEK Foresight Centre have published a series of articles in leading international journals on hidden and overt conflicts surrounding critically important metals and minerals, as well as related processes in the energy sector.
May 13, 2026
Immersion in Second Language Environment Influences Bilinguals Perception of Emotions
Researchers at the Cognitive Health and Intelligence Centre at the HSE Institute for Cognitive Neuroscience have discovered how bilingual individuals process emotional words in their native (first) and non-native (second) languages. It was found that the link between word meaning and bodily sensations is weaker in a second language than in a first language. However, the more a person is immersed in a language environment, the smaller this difference becomes. The article has been published in Language, Cognition and Neuroscience.
May 12, 2026
‘Any Real-Economy Company Can Use Our Products
The HSE Centre for Financial Research and Data Analytics combines fundamental and applied work, including in areas unique to Russia such as the connection between sentiment in the media and social networks and financial markets. The HSE News Service spoke with the centre’s director, Professor Tamara Teplova, about its work.

 

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Оценка качества краткосрочных прогнозов некоторых российских экономических показателей

Научный вестник ИЭП им. Гайдара.ру (электронный журнал). 2013. № 5(62). С. 32–35.
Е.Астафьева, М.Турунцева
Research target: Mathematics
Priority areas: economics
Language: Russian
Keywords: прогнозированиекачество прогноза
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Bifurcations and Structural Stability of Generic PC-HC Families
Dorovskiy A., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
In this paper the structural stability of generic families of vector fields of the PC-HC class on the two-dimensional sphere is proved. A classification of these families up to moderate equivalence in neighborhoods of their large bifurcation supports is presented, based on such invariants as the configuration and the characteristic set. The realization lemma is proved. ...
Added: May 14, 2026
The Sobolev space W_2^{1/2}: Simultaneous improvement of functions by a homeomorphism of the circle
Lebedev V., Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 2026 Vol. 563 No. 2 Article 130787
It is known that for every continuous real-valued  function $f$ on the circle $\mathbb T=\mathbb R/2\pi\mathbb Z$ there exists a  change of variable, i.e., a self-homeomorphism $h$ of $\mathbb T$, such that  the superposition $f\circ h$ is in the Sobolev space $W_2^{1/2}(\mathbb T)$.  We obtain new results on simultaneous improvement of functions by a single  change of variable in relation ...
Added: May 14, 2026
Symmetric Cubic Polynomials
Blokh A., Oversteegen L., Selinger N. et al., Arnold Mathematical Journal 2025 Vol. 12 No. 1 P. 1–40
We describe a model for the boundary of the connectedness locus of the parameter space of cubic symmetric polynomials. We show that there exists a monotone continuous function from the connectedness locus to the model which is a homeomorphism if the former is locally connected. ...
Added: May 13, 2026
Игры на сетях с линейным наилучшим ответом: модели и методы управления
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Системам связанных агентов и сетевому управлению посвящено большое число отечественных и зарубежных исследований. Исторически, наибольший интерес в теории управления возникал к усредняющим системам и, в частности, к задаче консенсуса. Однако сетевое взаимодействие может характеризоваться более специфическими функциями, отражающими зависимость от действий соседей по сети, что особенно явно проявляется в моделях стратегического взаимодействия на сети, которое ...
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Added: May 11, 2026
A two-point phase recovering from holographic data on a single plane
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We consider a plane wave, a radiation solution, and the sum of these solutions (total solution) for the Helmholtz equation in an exterior region in Rd, d ⩾ 2. In this region, we consider a hyperplane X with sufficiently large distance s from the origin in Rd. We give two-point local formulas for approximate recovering the radiation ...
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Multivariate Newton interpolation in downward closed spaces reaches the optimal Bernstein–Walsh approximation rate
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Weighted Chernoff Information and Optimal Loss Exponent in Context-Sensitive Hypothesis Testing
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We study binary hypothesis testing for i.i.d. observations under a multiplicative context weight. For the optimal weighted total loss, defined as the sum of weighted type-I and typeII losses, we prove the logarithmic asymptotic L∗n = exp{−nDwC (P,Q) + o(n)}, n →∞, where Dw C is the weighted Chernoff information. The single-letter form of the exponent relies on ...
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Calogero–Sutherland hyperbolic system and Heckman–Opdam $$\mathfrak {gl}_n$$ gl n hypergeometric function
Белоусов Н. М., Черепанов Л. К., Деркачов С. Э. et al., Selecta Mathematica, New Series 2026 Vol. 32 Article 44
We prove equivalence of two integral representations for the wave functions of hyperbolic Calogero–Sutherland system. For this we study two families of Baxter operators related to hyperbolic Calogero–Sutherland and rational Ruijsenaars models; the first one as a limit from hyperbolic Ruijsenaars system, while the second one independently. Besides, computing asymptotics of integral representations and also ...
Added: May 6, 2026
Hodge Laplacian Eigenvalues on Surfaces with Boundary
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Recently Rohleder proposed a new variational approach to an inequality between the Neumann and Dirichlet eigenvalues in the simply connected planar case using the language of classical vector analysis. Interpreting his approach in terms of differential forms permits to generalize these results to a much broader context. The spectrum of the absolute boundary problem for ...
Added: May 6, 2026
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Added: May 5, 2026
Моделирование и оценка ресурсных затрат алгоритмов маршрутизации в сетях на кристалле с двумерной циркулянтной топологией
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We study the additive theory of arbitrary figures in linear spaces, that is, the theory of addition extended to sets of vectors. Our main result is the following: if a linear space is infinite, then the additive theory of figures admits interpreting second-order arithmetic and, therefore, it has such or higher degree of undecidability. For countably infinite spaces, ...
Added: May 1, 2026
On the minimum number of maximal distance-k independent sets in trees
Taletskii D., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
A vertex subset of a graph is called a \textit{distance-$k$ independent set} if the distance between any two of its distinct vertices is at least $k + 1$. For all $n,k \geq 1$, we determine the minimum possible number of inclusion-wise maximal distance-$k$ independent sets among all $n$-vertex trees. It equals~$n$ if $n \leq k ...
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We introduce an explicit class of tempered Laurent polynomials in the sense of Villegas and Doran--Kerr in n⩽4 variables including all Landau--Ginzburg models for smooth Fano threefolds with very ample anticanonical class. We check that it contains Landau--Ginzburg models for various Fano fourfolds which are complete intersections in smooth toric varieties and Grassmannians of planes, ...
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This paper proposes Covariate-Balanced Weighted Stacked Difference-in-Differences (CBWSDID), a design-based extension of weighted stacked DID for settings in which untreated trends may be conditionally rather than unconditionally parallel. The estimator separates within-subexperiment design adjustment from across-subexperiment aggregation: matching or weighting improves treated-control comparability within each stacked subexperiment, while the corrective stacked weights of Wing et ...
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This article is devoted to the phenomenon of intrinsic motivation, to understand which two models are proposed. We study how positive/negative intrinsic motivation to work (experienced utility) affects worker's individual labour supply (model I) and the amount of effort they exert (model II). In model I, we use intrinsic motivation to explain the positive/negative slope ...
Added: March 15, 2026
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Троцкая И. А., Львова О. А., Короткова Е. В. et al., В кн.: Медицинское образование, наука, практика : Сборник статей X Международной научно-практической конференции молодых ученых и студентов, 22-23 апреля 2025 г. Т.2.: Екатеринбург: ФГБОУ ВО УГМУ Минздрава России, 2025. С. 673–679.
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Added: March 2, 2026
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Up and Down the Mount Stupid: An Emotional Explanation of the Dunning-Kruger Effect
Vorchik A., Мамышев М. А., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2025.
In this paper, we develop a formal mathematical model aimed to explain the Dunning-Kruger effect that beginners systematically overestimate their own competence in various fields of knowledge and activity. We argue that the Dunning-Kruger effect arises from the emotional nature of confidence combined with unknown unknowns that it simply can not take into account due ...
Added: February 11, 2026
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Musaev A. U., Vorchik A., / Series Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This paper attempts to model the evolutionary theory of modernization and democratization. The model reflects the key provisions of R. Inglehart and C. Welzel's theory and provides a microfoundation for the adaptation of subjective values to the objective importances of the survival factors and the structure of the labour markets from the perspective of evolutionary ...
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Added: January 31, 2026
Inaction Inertia in Economic Decision Making: The Role of Reference Points
Akhmedova A., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
The study explores a psychological phenomenon of inaction inertia-avoiding action after missing a more favourable opportunity. Unlike action inertia (e.g.,sunk costs effect), inaction inertia has been less studied, particularly in economic contexts. Considering the reference dependent nature of the phenomenon, I build on the work of Kőszegi and Rabin (2006) to examine how past experiences ...
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Beyond the Notch: Revenue Manipulation and Business Splitting under Simplified Tax System
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Simplified tax regimes with explicit eligibility thresholds are a common tool which reduces tax burden but distorts firms’ behavior, creating local bunching just below the threshold. However, we show that when firms have access to business splitting their responses extend far beyond the local margin. Our model demonstrates that splitting reduces local bunching but amplifies ...
Added: January 21, 2026
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