Применимость моделей устойчивого роста для прогнозирования эффективности IPO компании

Финансовый менеджмент. 2025. № 8. С. 321–330.

Войко Д. В., Voyko A. V., Афанасьева Е. Ю.

The purpose of this article is a comprehensive analysis of the applicability of Sustainable Growth Ratio models for predicting the effectiveness of IPO (IPO – Initial Public Offer) of Russian companies in modern conditions. Companies of various types of activity were selected as the object of research: medicine, pharmacology, IT business, transport services, wood processing industry and mining industry. As a methodology, the authors used a comparative analysis of SGR models in relation to the dynamics of the actual performance of Russian companies in the real sector of the economy, both those that went public in 2021-2024 and those preparing for a public offering of shares. The results of the study show that SGR models occupy an important place among the tools for evaluating the effectiveness of IPOs due to the ability to predict growth rates corresponding to maintaining the financial stability of the company without attracting additional borrowed capital. Empirical data showed significant variability in SGR dynamics across companies and models, which necessitates the need to supplement the calculation of SGR models with other indicators to predict the effectiveness of companies. Nevertheless, it was found out that models that include a larger number of financial coefficients and reflect the capital structure provide more accurate forecasts of the effectiveness of placements compared to classical models. The findings can be useful for professional market participants and investors in assessing the potential success of an IPO.

Keywords: структура капитала, profitability, IPO, рентабельность, capital structure, sustainable growth, устойчивый рост, IPO, profit reinvestment ratio, коэффициент реинвестирования прибыли