Activity-based planning of primary care utilization in a model of prospective demand for workforce

Human Resources for Health. 2025. Vol. 23. Article 70.

Stepanov I., Sheiman I.

The article develops an activity-based utilization model to inform strategic planning of the primary care workforce in Russia. Using national data on morbidity, service utilization, and staffing norms, the authors forecast physician visits per capita and link these projections to specific policy activities that can increase or decrease demand for primary care physicians. The model distinguishes groups of interventions such as expanding PHC capacity, strengthening chronic disease management, delegating tasks to nurses, and introducing remote monitoring, and quantifies their combined effect on visit rates under a preferred scenario to 2030. Sensitivity analysis identifies which activities most strongly influence projected demand, supporting prioritization of reforms and demonstrating that relatively simple utilization-based tools can be adapted for medium- and long-term workforce planning in settings with limited data.

Keywords: primary health care, медицинские кадры, первичная медико-санитарная помощь, activity-based utilization model, prospective workforce demand, healthcare workforce, спрос на медицинские кадры, планирование кадров здравоохранения

Publication based on the results of: Socio-economic factors of changes in the health status of the population and the health care system in the Russian Federation in the medium and long term (2025)