Green Bonds in Russia: Market and Macroeconomic Factors of Returns

Journal of Applied Economic Research. 2025. Vol. 24. No. 4. P. 1249–1279.

Nazarova V., Kozlova S., Pustynnikova A., Lodiagin B., Alekseeva O.

The Russian green bond market is still in its early stage of development but has been expanding in response to global demand for sustainable finance and domestic economic challenges. This context makes the analysis of factors shaping its performance particularly relevant. The aim of this study is to quantify the influence of macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, GDP growth, Brent oil prices, exchange rate fluctuations, and policy uncertainty, together with market indicators including Moscow Exchange index, bond yield spreads, credit ratings, and new issuance volume, on the capital returns of Russian green bonds between December 2022 and February 2025. The study proceeds from the hypothesis that both macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment determine green bond performance, with inflation, exchange rates, and bond indices expected to exert the strongest effects. Methodologically, a dynamic panel framework estimated by system Generalized Method of Moments is applied, while Fixed- and Random-Effects models provide robustness checks. The empirical analysis reveals persistence in returns, with a significant positive effect of two-month lagged values. Inflation is positively and significantly associated with returns, while ruble appreciation also exerts a positive effect in the GMM model. The Moscow Exchange Bonds Index emerges as another significant factor, indicating close co-movement with the broader bond market. In contrast, GDP growth, Brent oil, policy uncertainty, credit ratings, yield spreads, and issuance volumes show limited or insignificant influence. These findings enrich the literature on sustainable finance in emerging, resource-dependent economies by highlighting the dominant role of inflation and bond market dynamics. For practitioners, the results reiterate the need to account for inflationary and exchange rate conditions, while regulators should prioritize liquidity and integration of green bonds into established market infrastructure.

Keywords: ESG, green bonds, Panel regression, Environment and Sustainability