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The Rise and Fall of Opposition in the Moscow City Duma: a Study on Factional and Individual Divisions within a Subnational Assembly
This article examines factional and individual-level legislative behavior in the Seventh Convocation of the Moscow City Duma (2019–2024), the most opposition-inclined assembly in the modern history of Russia’s capital. Roll-call voting analysis, along with a specifically constructed Opposition Index, reveals weak cohesion within the opposition, with legislative behavior shaped by individual biographical characteristics rather than by party affiliation. This outcome reflects the limitations of the 2019 electoral strategy, where casting votes for the strongest oppositional candidate in each district resulted in a heterogeneous and internally divided legislature. Regression analysis confirms that deputies with higher Systemic Political Experience, an index based on principal component analysis (PCA) reflecting prior institutional integrations, are more loyal, which is consistent with theories of opposition co-optation in authoritarian regimes. Reflecting broader shifts in the political climate following 2022, oppositional activity declined markedly, particularly among members of the Communist Party. Bythe end of the convocation in 2024, internal fragmentation and administrative pressure had undermined the opposition’s capacity, enabling United Russia to reassert near-complete control over the legislature.