Determinants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables

Управленческие науки. 2025. Vol. 15. No. 1. P. 20–35.

I. Ali, Jonas A.

This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, and various macroeconomic factors on GDPgrowth in China over the period 1982–2022. By Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, theresearch investigates the dynamic interplay between GDP growth and fifteen independent variables, including FDI, exports, trade, total debt, and real interest rates. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirms the stationarity of the data at first difference. The ARDL model results indicate significant long-term impacts of some variables, particularly the current account balance, exports, and merchandise trade. Short-run dynamics revealed that increased FDI and real interest rates positively affect GDP growth, while increased debt, exports, and final consumption have negative effects. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-run relationship among the variables. Diagnostic checks show no issues with normality, heteroskedasticity, or serial correlation. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable evidence for policymakers to formulate effective economic policies, promoting growth and stability in China's rapidly evolving economy.

Keywords: analysis of economic policy, inernational trade system, macroeconomic factors, foreign direct investment (FDI), time series analysis, China, China's economic policy, ARDL model, GDP Growth