Fan Behavior, Team Success, and Stadium Demand: A Behavioral Economics Perspective from the NFL

Global Economic Perspectives. 2025. Vol. 3. No. 3.

Пан Ю.

This study investigates how team performance influences stadium attendance in the National

Football League, using a 28-year panel dataset comprising 7,221 games from 37 teams. Employing fixed effects

regression models, the analysis examines short-, medium-, and long-term performance indicators-including

current season win percentage, historical playoff participation, and lifetime win rates-while accounting

for stadium, economic, geographic, and match-level variables. The findings reveal that team performance

significantly affects attendance, but its impact varies across the season. While early-season success has little

effect, performance becomes increasingly predictive of attendance toward the end of the regular season and

during the playoffs. Surprisingly, winning the Super Bowl in the previous season is associated with a decline

in attendance the following year, suggesting a possible expectation saturation effect. Long-term team success

enhances attendance, particularly in the early season. Additionally, outcome uncertainty, new stadiums,

geographic proximity, and per capita income positively influence turnout, while rising unemployment is

paradoxically linked to higher attendance. These insights carry implications for sports economists and

practitioners, particularly in emerging markets. The methodology and behavioral patterns identified here may

inform attendance strategies in professional leagues across Central and Eastern Europe, where fan behavior and

infrastructure investments increasingly resemble those of mature sports markets.

Keywords: econometric modeling, Team performance, Sports attendance, Fan behavior