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Способы оценивания вероятности дефолта банков с использованием эконометрических методов
С. 239–260.
Kostrov A.
Publication based on the results of:
Ozerov K., Кутенко С. В., Деньги и кредит 2024 Т. 83 № 4 С. 98–118
Under limited data, the classical cohort method for the creation of migration matrices does not fully reflect the dynamics of the credit quality of the objects within the sample. This problem is exacerbated for objects of lower credit quality less represented in the sample. This paper investigates a continuous time approach to the creation of ...
Added: December 20, 2025
Bernhardt B. D., Marciano C., Guarracino M. R., Operations Research Forum 2025 Vol. 6 Article 47
E-commerce is a key sector in the Italian economy, with online companies becoming some of the largest and most profitable businesses. However, this growth comes with increased risk exposure. This study aims to investigate the relationship between alternative data (contextual factors, Text-Driven Data Enrichment) and the probability of default for Italian e-commerce companies. To date, ...
Added: September 6, 2025
Vishnevskiy A., Lex Russica (Русский закон) 2025 Т. 78 № 4 С. 25–33
The paper examines the amendments to the Advertising Law introduced by Federal Law No. 479-FZ dated 23 December 2024, which aim to establish additional requirements for the advertising of consumer loans (loans). The research is of a comparative legal and comprehensive nature: the author evaluates the provisions of the law not only based on a ...
Added: April 17, 2025
Mikhail Pomazanov, Berezhnoy A., , in: Procedia Computer Science, Volume 242: 11th International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative Management (ITQM 2024).: ScienceDirect, 2024. P. 348–355.
Once a scoring model has been developed for use in assessing a borrower’s credit risk, under the internal ratings-based (IRB) approach, it must be calibrated to a real-world measure of default frequency. The conservativeness of the calibration is tightly controlled, if it is not violated in the allowed number of digits of the rating scale, ...
Added: September 3, 2024
Penikas H. I., / Банк России. Серия доклады Банка России "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2024.
In 2016, the Bank of Russia developed two ordinances to set forth a procedure using a limited sample of loans to conclude whether the level of loss provisions in the portfolio of uniform loans is sufficient or not and whether the bank’s capital is adequate.
The existing procedure of reserve sufficiency evaluation previews as a rule considering only a part of the loan portfolio and transfer (extrapolation) of the provision thus assessed for the overall portfolio. Moreover, the acting approach to define the minimum loan sample size assumes the absence of the default correlation.
Author’s contribution ...
Added: June 1, 2024
Pomazanov M. V., Бережной А. Д., Риск-менеджмент в кредитной организации 2023 № 4(52) С. 6–14
Кредитоспособность заемщиков существенно различается от региона к региону, при этом построить скоринговую модель для каждого региона невозможно. Для калибровки скоринговых моделей с учетом региона необходимо учесть макроэкономиче- ские факторы, оказывающие влияние на вероятность дефолта (PD). Какими могут быть подходы к построению макроэкономи- ческих моделей для получения прогнозов вероятности дефолта в регионах? Как использовать метод ...
Added: February 8, 2024
Penikas H. I., Model Assisted Statistics and Applications 2022 Vol. 17 No. 1 P. 27–39
The Bank of Russia is one of the unique banking regulators in the world as it discloses granular reporting information per the existing credit institutions with the available historical track record. Same time the number of banks dramatically declined from above two and a half thousands in 1990s to one thousand in 2010 and to ...
Added: July 28, 2023
Semenova M., Popova P., Russian Journal of Money and Finance 2023 Vol. 82 No. 2 P. 106–119
This study focuses on the COVID-19 effect on the drawdown on bank credit lines in Russia. Using the bank-level data for all Russian banks for 2017-2020 we document that the first quarter of the pandemic witnesses a significant increase in probability for banks to demonstrate positive loans granted within the credit lines, which – given ...
Added: April 2, 2023
Zimin E., Semenova M., / Series WP BRP "Financial economics". 2022. No. WP BRP 90/FE/2022.
Bank de-branching is one of the key trends in banking sectors all over the world. This paper
explores the conditions in which de-branching brings more profits to the bank. This issue is
attracting considerable interest due to recent technological developments and increasing
competition, including from fintech companies. Using the data from 84 Russian regions over the
period of 2010–2020, ...
Added: December 6, 2022
Pomazanov M. V., , in: Risk Management, Sustainability and Leadership.: L.: IntechOpen, 2022. Ch. 6.
This chapter discusses the issue of assessing the quality of risk management for a wide segment of retail lending (from consumer loans to loans for self-employed persons and SMEs). The quality of risk management is assessed using the generally recognized approach of the ROC analysis methodology and assessment of the optimal level of discrimination, taking ...
Added: November 16, 2022
Pomazanov M. V., / Series arXiv:2204.07989v1 "Risk Management (q-fin.RM)". 2022.
The paper proposes new second-order accuracy metrics for scoring or rating models, which show the target preference of the model, it is better to diagnose good objects or better to diagnose bad ones for a constant generally accepted predictive power determined by the first order metric that is known as the Gini index. There are ...
Added: October 26, 2022
Iakimenko I., Semenova M., Zimin E., Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 2022 Vol. 80 Article 101651
Estimating correctly the borrower credit risks is the task of particular –and growing- importance for the banks all around the globe. Formal information sharing mechanisms are aimed to reduce information asymmetry in the credit markets and to enhance the precision of those estimates. In the academic literature, however, the answer to the question of whether ...
Added: September 15, 2022
Grishunin S., Сулоева С. Б., Ширякина В. А. et al., International Journal of Technology 2021 Vol. 12 No. 7 P. 1479–1487
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a key role in the Russian economy. However, banks and investors are reluctant to provide debt financing to these firms. This is underpinned by SMEs’ speculative credit quality and information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders. In this study, we aim to identify the insolvency drivers of Russian SMEs and ...
Added: May 21, 2022
Pomazanov M. V., Финансы и кредит 2021 Т. 27 № 12 С. 2719–2745
Abstract
Importance Validation of the consistency of rating model forecasts.
Objectives To provide rating model developers and validators with a practical fundamental test for benchmarking the calculated default probabilities resulting from the application of the models used in the rating system.
Methods The classical interval approach of testing statistical hypotheses, focused on the subject area of calibration ...
Added: January 13, 2022
Iakimenko I., Semenova M., Zimin E., / Series WP BRP "HSE University Series: Financial Economics ". 2021. No. WP BRP 85/FE/2021.
Correctly estimating borrower credit risk is a task of particular and growing importance for banks all around the globe. Formal information sharing mechanisms are aimed to reduce information asymmetry in the credit markets and to enhance the precision of those estimates. In the literature, however, whether more, and more detailed, borrower information shared by credit ...
Added: November 10, 2021
Khromova E., , in: Recent Advances of the Russian Operations Research Society.: Cambridge: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2020. Ch. 11 P. 177–196.
Added: October 31, 2021
Khromova E., Journal of Corporate Finance Research 2020 Vol. 14 No. 4 P. 31–46
The paper is devoted to mapping of Russian banks’ credit ratings to default probabilities for different time horizons by constructing empirical dynamic calibration scale. The paper is based on a random sample of 395 Russian banks (86 of which defaulted) for the period of 2007-2017. The scale proposed by this paper has three superior features ...
Added: October 27, 2021