Preface It’s not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. —Charles Darwin We live in an era of rapid and unprecedented change. Driven by technological innovation and changes in the way we deliver services, the face of healthcare is undergoing a metamorphosis, shifting into a more person-based, technologically enabled, evidence-based, and responsive system. That is the theory, at least. But are health systems that are changing according to these plans heralding transformative change? And what do some of the best thinkers believe is the prole of their health system over the next 5–15 years? We believe this book represents the best attempt yet to answer those thorny questions. Very few people could reach into the health systems of 152 countries and territories and orchestrate a book of this magnitude. Jeffrey Braithwaite, as series editor, accompanied by regional editors, Russell Mannion, Yukihiro Matsuyama, Paul G. Shekelle, Stuart Whittaker, and Samir Al-Adawi, and supported by an extremely knowledgeable team at Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia, particularly Dr. Wendy James and Kristiana Ludlow, were just the team to accomplish this. The omnibus they have created is an invaluable source of predictions about the future scope and shape of health systems across low-, middle-, and highincome countries. It is a treasure trove of important information. People will use it as a practical guide to the future in many ways: it can be read for benet and learning by region, by theme, and by specic case study exemplars of the kinds of reforms people are enacting in their health systems, extrapolated across the medium-term time horizon. Most books do not do this. The fact that this group has been able to achieve this is an endorsement of the skills, efforts, ingenuity, and expertise of the editors, editorial team, and individual chapter authors. We commend this book and recommend it as a must-read to many stakeholder groups: students of the system, policy-makers, planners, futurists, and groups representing managers, clinicians, and patients—in fact, all those who have an interest in healthcare and its future success. We enjoyed dipping xii Preface into it and thinking about its many learning points. We are sure others will too. Wendy Nicklin RN, BN, MSc(A), CHE, FACHE, FISQua, ICD.D President, International Society for Quality in Health Care Clifford F. Hughes AO, MBBS, DSc, FRACS, FACS, FACC, FIACS (Hon), FAAQHC, FCSANZ, FISQua, AdDipMgt, Immediate Past President, International Society for Quality in Health Care

This volume contains proceedings of the first Workshop on Data Analysis in Medicine held in May 2017 at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow. The volume contains one invited paper by Dr. Svetla Boytcheva, 6 regular contributions and 2 project proposals, carefully selected and reviewed by at least two reviewers from the international program commit- tee. The papers accepted for publication report on different aspects of analysis of medical data, among them treatment of data on particular diseases (Consoli- dated mathematical growth model of Breast Cancer CoMBreC, Artificial neural networks for prediction of final height in children with growth hormone deficiency), methods of data analysis (analysis of rare diseases, methods of machine learning and Big Data, subgroup discovery for treatment optimization), and instrumental tools (explanation-oriented methods of data analysis in medicine, information support features of the medical research process, modeling frame- work for medical data semantic transformations, radiology quality management and peer-review system). Organizers of the workshop would like to thank the reviewers for their careful work and all contributors and participants of the workshop.

This book examines how Russia, the world’s most complicated country, is governed. As it resumes its place at the centre of global affairs, the book explores Russia’s overarching strategies, and how it organizes itself (or not) in policy areas ranging from foreign policy and national security to health care, education, immigration, science, sport, agriculture, the environment and criminal justice. The book also discusses the structures and institutions on which Russia relies in order to deliver its goals in these areas of national life, as well as what’s to be done, in policy terms, to improve the country’s performance in its first post-Soviet century. Edited by Irvin Studin, the book includes contributions from a tremendous list of Russia’s leading thinkers and specialists, including Alexei Kudrin, Vladimir Mau, Alexander Auzan, Simon Kordonsky, Fyodor Lukyanov, Natalia Zubarevich and Andrey Melville.

The authors proposed and mathematically described model of a new type of the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam recurrence (the FPU auto recurrence) and hypothesized an adequate description of the heart's electrical dynamics within the observed phenomenon. The dynamics of the FPU auto recurrence making appropriate electrical dynamics of the normal functioning of the heart in the form of an electrocardiogram (ECG) was obtained by a computer model study. The model solutions in the form of the FPU auto recurrence – ECG Fourier spectrum were evaluated for resistance to external disturbances in the form of random effects, as well as periodic perturbation at a frequency close to the heart beating rate of about 1 Hz. In addition, in order to simulate the dynamics of myocardial infarction model, studied the effect of the surface area of the myocardium on the stability and shape of the auto recurrence – ECG spectrum. It has been found that the intense external disturbing periodic impacts at a frequency of about 1 Hz lead to a sharp disturbance spectrum shape FPU auto recurrence – ECG structure. In addition, the decrease in the surface of the myocardium by 50% in the model led to the destruction of structures of the auto recurrence – ECG, which corresponds to the state of atrial myocardium. Research models have revealed a hypothetical basis of coronary heart disease in the form of increasing the energy of high-frequency harmonics spectrum of the auto recurrence by reducing the energy of low-frequency harmonic spectrum of the auto recurrence, which ultimately leads to a sharp decrease in myocardial contractility. In order to test the hypothesis has been studied more than 20,000 ECGs both healthy people and patients with cardiovascular disease. As a result of these studies, it was found that the dynamics of the electrical activity of normal functioning of the heart can be interpreted by the display of the detected by authors the FPU auto recurrence, and coronary heart disease is a violation of the energy ratio between the low and high frequency harmonics of the FPU auto recurrence Fourier spectrum equal to the ECG spectrum. Thus, the hypothesis has been confirmed.

The materials of The International Scientific – Practical Conference is presented below. The Conference reflects the modern state of innovation in education, science, industry and social-economic sphere, from the standpoint of introducing new information technologies.

It is interesting for a wide range of researchers, teachers, graduate students and professionals in the field of innovation and information technologies.

Background and aims. This research reported here presents findings from an evaluation of the development and implementation of the Healthy Community Challenge Fund (otherwise known as the ‘Healthy Towns’ programme). A key aim of the research has been to inform the development of future environmental and systems‐based ‘whole town’ approaches to obesity prevention. The overall aim of the Healthy Towns programme was to pilot and stimulate novel ‘whole town’ approaches that tackle the ‘obesogenic’ environment in order to reduce obesity, with a particular focus on improving diet and increasing physical activity. Through a competitive tender process, nine towns were selected that represented urban areas across England ranging from small market towns to areas of large cities. The fund provided £30 million over the period 2008‐2011, divided amongst the nine towns. The amounts awarded ranged from £900,000 to £4.85 million. Towns were instructed to be innovative and were given freedom to develop a locally‐specific programme of interventions. This report supplements local process and impact evaluations undertaken by each town (not reported here) by taking an overall view of the programme’s development and implementation. Our evaluation therefore addressed the following research questions: 1. What kinds of interventions were delivered across the Healthy Towns programme? 2. Were environmental and infrastructural interventions equitably delivered? 3. How was the Healthy Towns programme theorised and translated into practice? 4. How was evidence used in the selection and design of interventions? 5. What are the barriers and facilitators to the implementation of a systems approach to obesity prevention?

Adequate assessment of individual functional motor potentials is important for developing appropriate rehabilitation strategies in ischemic stroke [1]. Microstructural changes in corticospinal tract (CST) and corpus callosum (CC) were repeatedly correlated to post-stroke outcome [2, 3]. However, relationship between them and functional recovery remains unclear. Here we investigated relationship between integrity of CST and CC assessed with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and brain functional state assessed with navigated transcranial magnetic stimulation (nTMS) in chronic ischemic supratentorial stroke.

The present volume is the fourth issue of the Yearbook series entitled ‘Evolution’. The title of the present volume is ‘From Big Bang to Nanorobots’. In this way we demonstrate that all phases of evolution and Big History are covered in the articles of the present Yearbook. Several articles also present the forecasts about future development.

The main objective of our Yearbook as well as of the previous issues is the creation of a unified interdisciplinary field of research in which the scientists specializing in different disciplines could work within the framework of unified or similar paradigms, using the common terminology and searching for common rules, tendencies and regularities. At the same time for the formation of such an integrated field one should use all available opportunities: theories, laws and methods. In the present volume, a number of such approaches are used.

The volume consists of four sections: Universal Evolutionary Principles; Biosocial Evolution, Ecological Aspects, and Consciousness; Projects for the Future; In Memoriam.

This Yearbook will be useful both for those who study interdisciplinary macroproblems and for specialists working in focused directions, as well as for those who are interested in evolutionary issues of Cosmology, Biology, History, Anthropology, Economics and other areas of study. More than that, this edition will challenge and excite your vision of your own life and the new discoveries going on around us!

The book presents the most important aspects of safe digital image workflows, starting from the basic practical implications and gradually uncovering the underlying concepts and algorithms. With an easy-to-follow, down-to-earth presentation style, the text helps you to optimize your diagnostic imaging projects and connect the dots of medical informatics.​

In the context of global efforts to move towards universal coverage in health systems, this report reviews health financing reforms in the Republic of Moldova and looks in particular at how the population´s access to health services has been affected. In 2004, as has been widely documented elsewhere, wholesale reforms were made to the way in which government funds were used to fund health services, shifting the system overnight from a highly fragmented and inflexible one, to one in which funds for the health sector were pooled nationally, allowing improved risk-sharing as a result of greater flexibility to allocate funds in line with health needs. A new source of funding in the form of a payroll tax for health was also introduced directly leading to a growth in total levels of government health spending. A second phase of reforms starting in 2009 addressed the issue of gaps in population coverage under mandatory health insurance, with legislative measures taken to ensure that all citizens of Moldova had access to primary health care, and to ensure that the poor receive subsidized health insurance. Fiscal constraints have limited the full implementation of these reforms however. Moldova has shown that it is prepared to tackle difficult policy issues head on and has articulated clear goals for the sector. In particular, the Roadmap “Accelerating Reforms: addressing the needs of the health area through investment policies” approved on 1 March 2012, lays a clear agenda for the next phase or priority reforms focusing on principally on service delivery reorganization but also on health financing. This is the correct focus given that progress on a number of priority indicators such as equity in access to services and financial protection has been limited in recent years. This report summarizes the main impact of health financing reforms to date and agrees with the Roadmap about the major challenges for the coming decade, in particular the need to address inefficiencies in service delivery, but also to ensure that the close link between guaranteed benefits and available funding is maintained in future policy decisions.

Background

Over the past few decades, social and economic changes have had substantial effects on health and wellbeing in Russia. We aimed to use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to evaluate trends in mortality, causes of death, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and associated risk factors in Russia from 1980 to 2016.

Methods

We estimated all-cause mortality by use of a multistage modelling process that synthesised data from vital registration systems, surveys, and censuses. A composite measure of health loss due to both fatal and non-fatal disease burden (DALYs) was calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs for each age, sex, year, and location. Health progress was evaluated in comparison with patterns of change in similar countries by use of the Socio-demographic Index that was developed for GBD 2016.

Findings

Following rapid decreases in life expectancy after the collapse of the Soviet Union, life expectancy at birth in Russia improved between 2006 and 2016. The all-cause mortality rate decreased by 16·6% (95% uncertainty interval 9·4–33·8) between 1980 and 2016. This overall decrease encompasses the cycles of sharp increases and plateaus in mortality that occurred before 2005. Child mortality decreased by 57·5% (53·5–61·1) between 2000 and 2016. However, compared with countries at similar Socio-demographic Index levels, rates of mortality and disability in Russia remain high and life expectancy is low. Russian men have a disproportionate burden of disease relative to women. In 2016, 59·2% (55·3–62·6) of mortality in men aged 15–49 years and 46·8% (44·5–49·5) of mortality in women were attributable to behavioural risk factors, including alcohol use, drug use, and smoking.

Interpretation

Trends in mortality in Russia from 1980 to 2016 might be related to complicated patterns of behavioural risk factors associated with economic and social change, to shifts in disease burden, and to changes in the capacity of and access to health care. Ongoing mortality and disability from causes and risks amenable to health-care interventions and behaviour modifications present opportunities to continue to improve the wellbeing of Russian citizens.

Background

Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.

Methods

Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.

Findings

Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5–3·0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6·8% (5·8–8·0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15–49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3·8% (95% UI 3·2–4·3) of female deaths and 12·2% (10·8–13·6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15–49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2·3% (95% UI 2·0–2·6) and male attributable DALYs were 8·9% (7·8–9·9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1·4% [95% UI 1·0–1·7] of total deaths), road injuries (1·2% [0·7–1·9]), and self-harm (1·1% [0·6–1·5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27·1% (95% UI 21·2–33·3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18·9% (15·3–22·6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0·0–0·8) standard drinks per week.

Interpretation

Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.

Importance  Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions.

Objective  To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories.

Design, Setting, and Participants  This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths.

Exposures  Firearm ownership and access.

Main Outcomes and Measures  Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year.

Results  Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (−0.2% [95% UI, −0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35).

Conclusions and Relevance  This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.

Thirty years ago, in 1988, the Communist Party of the USSR held its 19th Conference, declaring a turn from the totalitarian past to a democratic future, to life built upon common human values. The country entered a deep transformation, ‘perestroika’. The year 1988 ended with Gorbachev meeting Reagan. In 3 years Russia would declare independence from the greater USSR. The Soviet Union had outlived its vitality and usefulness and voluntarily imploded. A useful comparator is Europe, 1945, ruined in the Great War. The next 30 years Europe saw flourishing of technology, trade, governance and prosperity. Though 30 years have elapsed since the Soviet fall, Russia remains in a churning transition of doubtful accomplishment unleavened by the passage of time. Indeed, since 1988, Russia has forfeited any real chance of improving the nation’s health and health care system.

The goal of this research is to improve the accuracy of predicting the breast cancer (BC) pro- cess using the original mathematical model referred to as CoMPaS. The CoMPaS is the original mathematical model and the corresponding software built by modelling the natural history of the primary tumor (PT) and secondary distant metastases (MTS), it reflects the relations between the PT and MTS. The CoMPaS is based on an exponential growth model and consists of a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations and corresponds to the TNM classification. It allows us to calculate the different growth periods of PT and MTS: 1) a non-visible period for PT, 2) a non-visible period for MTS, and 3) a visible period for MTS. The CoMPaS has been validated using 10-year and 15-year survival clinical data con- sidering tumor stage and PT diameter. The following are calculated by CoMPaS: 1) the number of doublings for the non-visible and visible growth periods of MTS and 2) the tumor volume doubling time (days) for the non-visible and visible growth periods of MTS. The diameters of the PT and secondary distant MTS increased simultaneously. In other words, the non-visible growth period of the secondary distant MTS shrinks, leading to a decrease of the survival of patients with breast cancer. The CoMPaS correctly describes the growth of the PT for patients at the T1aN0M0, T1bN0M0, T1cN0M0, T2N0M0 and T3N0M0 stages, who does not have MTS in the lymph nodes (N0). Additionally, the CoMPaS helps to con- sider the appearance and evolution period of secondary distant MTS (M1). The CoMPaS correctly describes the growth period of PT corresponding to BC classification (parameter T), the growth period of secondary distant MTS and the 10-15-year survival of BC patients considering the BC stage (parameter M).

PURPOSE OF REVIEW:

The social networks of people who inject drugs (PWID) have long been studied to understand disease transmission dynamics and social influences on risky practices. We illustrate how PWID can be active agents promoting HIV, HCV, and overdose prevention.

RECENT FINDINGS:

We assessed drug users' connections and interactions with others at risk for HIV/HCV in three cities: New York City (NYC), USA (n = 539); Pereira, Colombia (n = 50); and St. Petersburg, Russia (n = 49). In all three cities, the majority of participants' network members were of a similar age as themselves, yet connections across age groups were also present. In NYC, knowing any opioid user(s) older than 29 was associated with testing HCV-positive. In NYC and St. Petersburg, a large proportion of PWID engaged in intravention activities to support safer injection and overdose prevention; in Pereira, PWID injected, had sex, and interacted with other key groups at risk. People who use drugs can be active players in HIV/HCV and overdose risk- reduction; their networks provide them with ample opportunities to disseminate harm reduction knowledge, strategies, and norms to others at risk. Local communities could augment prevention programming by empowering drug users to be allies in the fight against HIV and facilitating their pre-existing health-protective actions.

Electrocorticography (ECoG) is a standard procedure for the localization of the epileptogeniczone during the surgical treatment of symptomatic epilepsy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of intraoperative pre- and post-resective ECoG for the localization of the epileptogenic zone in patients with symptomatic epilepsy associated with supratentorial brain tumors. 1. In the surgical treatment of symptomatic epilepsy associated with intracerebral neoplasm, intraoperative ECG remains a relatively effective method. 2. The effectiveness of intraoperative pre- and post-resection ECoG is affected by factors associated with the performance of neurosurgical surgery (the influence of general anesthetics, mechanical effects on the brain, repeated electrocoagulation), which significantly alter the index of epileptiform activity.

Background

A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016.

Methods

Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0–100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita.

Findings

In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8–98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9–97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5–97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1–24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3–23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2–26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1–93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4–53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6–68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3–38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries.

Interpretation

GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view—and subsequent provision—of quality health care for all populations.

Human genetic variability is thought to account for a substantial fraction of individual biochemical characteristics — in biomedical sense, of individual drug response. However, only a handful of human genetic variants have been linked to medication outcomes. Here, we combine data on drug-protein interactions and human genome sequences to assess the impact of human variation on their binding affinity. Using data from the complexes of FDA-drugs and drug-like compounds, we predict SNPs substantially affecting the protein-ligand binding affinities. We estimate that an average individual carries ~6 SNPs affecting ~5 different FDA-approved drugs from among all of the approved compounds. SNPs affecting drug-protein binding affinity have low frequency in the population indicating that the genetic component for many ADEs may be highly personalized with each individual carrying a unique set of relevant SNPs. The reduction of ADEs, therefore, may primarily rely on the application of computational genome analysis in the clinic rather than the experimental study of common SNPs.

The paper examines the changes in the physician’s motivation at work during the period of reforms the salary system started since 2008. These reforms have included a shift from fixed salary system to pay for performance remuneration as well as sufficient increase of salary. The data of six surveys of health workers implemented in 2007-2016 were used to reveal the hierarchy of physician’s motives at work and to track their changes during the period of time under consideration. The changes were minor, and the directions of these changes were rather opposite to the expected strengthening of financial motivation at work: the importance of the motive of earning money has moved from the first place. The share of doctors willing to work more and better on the condition of linking salary with labor contribution did not increase. In contrast, almost two-thirds of physicians believe that they are working on a high level of quality and performance. The majority of physicians desire to increase not a stimulating part of the salary but a base, fixed one. Doctors who receive bonuses for the intensity, quality and performance, and who have a higher amount of salary wish to see the share of fixed part of salary higher than it is now available. This is a clear indication of orientation of this professional to strengthening the protective function of the salary rather than to use increased opportunities for earning money.

The paper explores primary health care models in Russia and in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Starting with the similar model, they have taken totally different ways of primary health care transformation, including the role of general practitioner, multispecialty polyclinics and private sector. The comparison of this diversity, based on the conceptual framework of Primary Health Care Activity Monitor in Europe, demonstrated that the scores of primary care in Russia are relatively lower, particularly in the dimensions of accessibility, comprehensiveness, continuity and coordination of care. The score of the selected efficiency indicators is also relatively low. The major reasons for this are discussed, including the lack of strategic vision on the role of primary care, an excessive specialization of primary care and the delay with a shift to a general practitioner model. A debatable issue of primary care extended composition (the involvement of a growing number of specialists) is also addressed. The conceptual presumption that an extended composition presents new opportunities for more integrated care and better performance has not been supported by the evidence. Big multispecialty policlinics in Russia don’t demonstrate advantages over solo and group GP practices that dominate in CEE countries. The potential of polyclinics is not used because of the lack of specific activities for integration. It is argued that new specialists in the practices can strengthen primary care only when they support generalists rather than replace them. The lesson learnt from CEE countries is that substantial changes are needed to overcome the lagging status of primary care in Russia, including overcoming the excessive specialization of primary care, the replacement of district physicians by general practitioners, developing the forms of independent practices operating in parallel with polyclinics and competing with them.

Having one of the highest physician-population ratios in the world, Russia – paradoxically – also faces shortages of physicians. This paper explores the reasons for this paradox through examining the structural characteristics of the Russian health workforce and its development. In comparing Russia with mainstream European countries and in particular the ‘new” EU countries we argue that the shortage of physicians is determined mostly by the prevailing model of health workforce development with its enduring emphasis on quantitative rather than structural indicators. First, the traditional perception of physicians as inexpensive health resources determines the long-term growth of their jobs – irrespective of the new opportunities for substitution and other structural innovations. Second, there is a persistent distortion in the composition of physician supply, of which the most important is the very low share and narrow remit of primary health care providers in comparison to European standards. Third, the international trends in the division of labor between physicians, medical nurses and allied health personnel are not followed in Russia with the result of an inevitable overburden of physicians, the reproduction of a large supply of physicians, while also the paradoxical shortage. Fourth, the system of professional development of physicians does not match international standards. Although with a substantial delay, Russia has now started transition to a workforce model focused on structural characteristics of human resources and so, in the final part of the paper, these new initiatives of the Government are critically assessed.

Background: With the rapid growth of online social network sites (SNS), the issue of health-related online communities and its social and behavioral implications have become increasingly important for public health and healthcare. Unfortunately, online communities often become vehicles for promotion of pernicious misinformation, for example, alleged harm of vaccination or that HIV-virus is a myth (AIDS-denialism). This study seeks to explore the social structure and participants' behavior of the AIDS-denialists online community to identify and estimate the those who potentially are most susceptible to AIDS-denialists arguments  - “the risk group” in terms of becoming AIDS-denialists. Methods: Social network analysis was used for examining the most numerous AIDS-denialist community in the most popular Russian SNA “VKontakte”, which numbered 13000 – 15 000 members during the various stage of analysis. Qualitative content analysis was also used for collecting relevant for this study members’ attributes, such as HIV status and the extent of belief in AIDS-denialists arguments. Two datasets were collected to analyze friendship  relations between community members and their communication relations. Results: Using social network analysis combined with content-analysis we have identified the core of online community - cohesive and dedicated AIDS-denialists, and the risk group, which is not equal in composition to all peripheral members appeared in the online group. The risk group is the circle of users who engage with core members through online communication and may be more susceptible the AIDS-denialist propaganda. Analysis allowed to significantly reduce the target audience for possible intervention campaign and simultaneously increase the accuracy of user selection into the risk group (1369 users from the risk group is more than 10 times less than whole online group population counting over 15,000 users). Thus, online information interventions should be aimed at this risk group audience in the first place to prevent their adoption of AIDS-denialism beliefs, further spread of AIDS-denialism, and pernicious health consequences associated with being an HIV-positive AIDS-denialist. Conclusion: More research on influence of AIDS-denialism on HIV-positive online group members is needed. Of particular interest are longitudinal or case control studies that could detect the size of effect of AIDS-denialist propaganda that is communicated from hard-core denialists to the risk group, different factors associated with higher or lower susceptibility to AIDS-denialist views, and real health behavior change that occurs with becoming an AIDS-denialist.

The article is based on the preliminary results of author’s current study of the implementation of electronic health records in one of Russian outpatient clinics. Interviews with doctors, developers, managers of the State Department of Healthcare, IT-specialists, and clinic’s head, as well as observations of doctors’ everyday work, show that one of the key problems in the transition from paper to electronic record-keeping is how new information system transforms (or fails to transform) doctors’ routine, habitual activities. The article suggests that the widespread view of habitual action as an action in accordance with a preliminary scheme — a view that forms a basis for the majority of medical information systems — does not describe the actual structure of healthcare activities. The analysis of how doctors perceive and use electronic health records in their daily practice demonstrates that a situational approach to routine actions is more adequate. For example, the use of so-called “templates” that are created by doctors within the electronic health records cannot be understood without reference to the situational context of professional activities. Doctors, creating and using various “templates,” do this in such ways that allow them to make these health records circumstantially understandable. The view of routine activities as situated, concerted achievements not only proves the possibility of a new approach to the description of habitual actions’ role and place in the structure of social action, but can be important for the design and evaluation of professional information systems.

The article focuses on four major assumptions that underlie the alternative conceptualization of public recreation marketing. It explains (1) the redistribution system within recreation resources are allocated; (2) the organizational structure of recreation agencies; (3) the ways in which public recreation agencies interact with local governments and citizens; and (4) the code of ethics and its influence on the behavior of recreation professionals. Finally, the article attempts to integrate these assumptions into an alternative definition of public recreation marketing that is termed “administered marketing.”

This paper presents a method and computational technology for forecasting ambulance trips. We used statistical information about the number of the trips in 2009-2013, the meteorological archive, and the corresponding archive of the meteorological forecasts for the same period. We take into account social and meteorological predictors simultaneously. The method may be used operatively for planning in the ambulance service. It may be applied for all trips and for specific subgroups of diseases. The method and the technology may be applied for any megalopolis if the corresponding medical and meteorological information is available.

The paper considers the changes in major proximate determinants of fertility in Russia within the framework of demographic transition theory and Bongaarts approach to fertility analysis. After World War II Russian fertility became fully controlled process. The complex interplay of abortion and contraception during the Soviet period resulted in a very high abortion level. Russian government has almost never supported and promoted family planning as alternative to abortion. However couple's preferences of small offspring appeared more powerful than the will of authorities. Current trends show that albeit lack of governmental support the society itself is evolving towards more humanistic and effective birth control. Estimates made upon recent surveys' data confirm the validity of official statistics and thus the reality of favorable trend of abortion decline.