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Working paper

Роль изменений в структуре производства при анализе монетарной политики

Bryzgalova S., Shulgin A. G.
The structural micro-model of the real sector based on Grossman’s (2007) analysis can be used to find the conditions that result in structural changes due to the implementation of monetary and foreign exchange policies. Structural changes, such as in the set of goods that are produced and breaks in the GDP path, may possibly undermine the overall effect of the policy. Numerical modeling is used to determine the sources of structural changes and to find the conditions under which there is a high possibility of negative structural changes, for instance a decreasing foreign exchange policy expansion exacerbated by a decreasing monetary policy contraction. Similar conditions may characterize the transition from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting based on the interest rate. Other results are effects caused by structural changes: the possibility of a negative pass-through effect and uncertain diversification of the economy.