From bust to boom? Birth and fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic
Sobotka T., Jasilioniene A., Zeman K., Winkler-Dworak M., Brzozowska Z., Galarza A., Nemeth L., Jdanov D.
Past economic, health and policy shocks were associated with a downturn in fertility. We use monthly birth data collected by the Human Fertility Database (Short-Term Fertility Fluctuations data series) to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on birth trends until April 2022 in 37 highly developed countries. We also present estimates of monthly total fertility rate adjusted for seasonality. Overall, the coronavirus pandemic did not bring a lasting “baby bust” in most of the analyzed countries. On balance, many countries experienced an improvement in their birth dynamics compared with the pre-pandemic period. This was especially the case in the Nordic countries, German-speaking countries and Western Europe, alongside New Zealand, Israel and Quebec. However, this summary picture hides distinct short-term shifts during the pandemic. The initial pandemic shock resulted in a fall in births in most countries, with the sharpest drop in January 2021. Next, birth rates showed a surprising short-term recovery in March 2021, linked with the conceptions after the end of the first wave of the pandemic. Most countries then reported stable or slightly increasing numbers of births in the subsequent months, especially in Autumn 2021. Yet another downturn in births and fertility rates occurred in January-April 2022.
, , et al., Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series / . 2021.
Past evidence on fertility responses to external shocks, including economic recessions and the outbreaks of infectious diseases, show that people often put their childbearing plans on hold in uncertain times. We study the most recent data on monthly birth trends to analyse the initial fertility responses to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our research, ...
Added: March 29, 2021
Forecasting spatial, socioeconomic and demographic variation in COVID-19 health care demand in England and Wales
, , et al., BMC Medicine 2020 Vol. 18 No. 1 P. 203
Background: COVID-19 poses one of the most profound public health crises for a hundred years. As of mid-May 2020, across the world, almost 300,000 deaths and over 4 million confirmed cases were registered. Reaching over 30,000 deaths by early May, the UK had the highest number of recorded deaths in Europe, second in the world ...
Added: July 7, 2020
, Демографическое обозрение 2019 Т. 6 № 2 С. 204-208
The book is devoted to issues of forecasting the size and structure of the Earth’s population until the end of the XXI century; it focuses on both the methodological aspects of making such demographic projections and on the consequences of various forecast scenarios for future trajectories of human development. The authors pay special attention to ...
Added: December 9, 2019
, , et al., Университетское управление: практика и анализ 2020 Т. 24 № 4 С. 22-29
In the spring of 2020, due to the threat of COVID-19, most Russian universities switched to distant learning. The forced transition imposed new demands on faculty and students, who had to adapt quickly to the new educational conditions. These changes have raised concerns about the quality of distant learning. The purpose of this study was ...
Added: December 20, 2020
, Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены 2021 № 2 С. 403-422
The massive transition of Russians to remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic was possible due to the achieved level of digital competencies, a key component of digital literacy. The paper is based on the materials of self-assessment measurement of digital competencies of the Russian adult population, conducted by Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) and Social Business Group (SBG) at the end of April 2020. The ...
Added: May 10, 2021
, Russian Education and Society 2011 Vol. 53 No. 2 P. 78-92
Russia’s declining birth rate is linked to a delay in a family’s decision to have children and to uncertainty about the place of children in a couple’s relationship. Despite the rise of individualism and the importance of career and self-realization, however, the family retains a very important place in Russian society. ...
Added: October 10, 2012
Пенза : МЦНС "Наука и просвещение", 2020
Настоящий сборник составлен по материалам XX Международной научнопрактической конференции «European Scientific Conference», состоявшейся 17 мая 2020 г. в г. Пенза. В сборнике научных трудов рассматриваются современные проблемы науки и практики применения результатов научных исследований. Сборник предназначен для научных работников, преподавателей, аспирантов, магистрантов, студентов с целью использования в научной работе и учебной деятельности. Ответственность за аутентичность ...
Added: August 17, 2020
, Вестник Института экономики Российской академии наук 2018 Т. 3 С. 50-60
В статье рассматриваются особенности демографического поведения (рождаемости и смертности) у русских в постсоветских странах с наиболее многочисленной русскоязычной диаспорой и наличием надежных статистических данных – в Казахстане, Кыргызстане, Латвии и Эстонии. Проведен анализ факторов, определяющих динамику численности русской диаспоры в этих странах. Показано, что различия между русским населением и титульными национальностями в естественной убыли вызваны ...
Added: September 27, 2018
, , , Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены 2020 № 6 С. 266-283
The measurement problem of sensitive questions does not have a universal solution and varies both by topic and by country. It is especially relevant during the crisis when fake information can produce dangerous social consequences. We measured the proportion of those who believe in rumors regarding COVID-19 among Russian students based on the list experiment. ...
Added: January 3, 2021
, Демографическое обозрение 2019 Т. 6 № 4 С. 83-103
В статье рассматривается роль различных факторов, которые влияют на принятие решения о рождении ребенка. Основное внимание уделяется мотивированным решениям иметь или не иметь (еще одного) ребенка и социально-экономическим и социально-психологическим сдерживающим факторам, влияющим на откладывание рождения детей. Полученные количественные и качественные оценки свидетельствуют о том, что социальная норма относительно «правильного» размера российской семьи остается достаточно стабильной: ...
Added: December 19, 2019
, , , Determinants of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and resistance in Russia / Высшая школа экономики. Series SOC "Sociology". 2021. No. 99.
Vaccination is the main tool available to handle the COVID-19 pandemic globally. Though no vaccine is proven to be 100% effective, vaccination secures against getting seriously ill and dying from the disease. Russia announced the development of its first domestic vaccine back in August 2020 and launched the nationwide immunization campaign at the beginning of ...
Added: December 21, 2021
An open-sourced, web-based application to analyze weekly excess mortality based on the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series
, , , Plos One 2021 Vol. 16 No. 2 P. 1-10
The COVID-19 pandemic stimulated the interest of scientists, decision makers and the general public in short-term mortality fluctuations caused by epidemics and other natural or man-made disasters. To address this interest and provide a basis for further research, in May 2020, the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series was launched as a new section of the ...
Added: February 8, 2021
, , , Демографическое обозрение 2017 № 1 С. 6-34
В 1960 - 70-е годы с появлением на рынке гормональной контрацепции и внутриматочной контрацепции нового поколения, в западных странах произошли кардинальные перемены в сфере внутрисемейного регулирования рождаемости настолько значительные, что американские демографы Уэстоф и Райдер назвали их «контрацептивной революцией». К этому времени переход к низкой рождаемости в развитых странах, как, впрочем, и в России, был ...
Added: June 23, 2017
Оценка психологического состояния общества в условиях инфодемии посредством анализа социальных сетей: обзор зарубежных публикаций
, , Общество. Среда. Развитие (Terra Humana) 2020 № 2(55) С. 28-39
The article provides an overview of studies by foreign authors published between December 2019 and April 2020 on the topic of disseminating information about the new coronavirus infection COVID-19 on social networks. The authors consider the ratio of reliable and false information in social media against the backdrop of a pandemic. Scientists from China, as ...
Added: July 17, 2020
, , Демографическое обозрение 2014 Т. 1 № 3 С. 33-64
The paper regards an association between conception and official marriage registration in Russian women’s life course. Authors use 2010 vital statistics database on births for a set of regions to analyze marriage registration rates at different months of pregnancy or before it. The study reveals differences in the marital behavior in a state of pregnancy ...
Added: February 19, 2015
, , Вестник Московского университета. Серия 10: Журналистика 2016 № 4 С. 3-21
The topic of demography in recent years excites a lot of discussion among politicians, economists and sociologists. These discussions are reflected in the media including on the Internet: the articles addresses issues of fertility and maternity capital, mortality and health, migration and the labor market. However in these articles it is possible to detect certain ...
Added: December 5, 2015
Рождаемость в повторных союзах в России: позволяет ли вступление в новый супружеский достичь идеала двухдетной семьи?
, , , Демографическое обозрение 2016 Т. 3 № 1 С. 35-51
The rapid deinstitutionalization of lifetime marriage in developed countries in the second half of the 20th century has resulted in increased proliferation and acceptability of diverse forms of marital unions. On the one hand, all developed countries have seen rising risks of dissolution of first marriages; on the other hand, this trend has been partly ...
Added: September 28, 2016
Childbearing After Repartnering Among Russians, Russians Migrants and Estonians: Prevalence and Determinants
, , Childbearing After Repartnering Among Russians, Russians Migrants and Estonians: Prevalence and Determinants / SSRN. Series "Working Papers". 2017.
The collapse of the USSR and structural changes in society gave rise to family and marriage transformations in Russia and other post-Soviet countries of Eastern Europe. Estonia is among the examples of rapid marriage transformation and the spread of cohabitations and extramarital births. At the same time, throughout the post-war era Estonia accepted Russian migrants. ...
Added: March 5, 2018
, Население и экономика 2020 Т. 4 № 2 С. 18-25
Global drama of pandemic has caused the deep reduction of consumption of wealthy strata, unemployment and isolation. Huge number of people around the Globe is facing the step back to basic needs by Maslow pyramid: physiological needs and security. Adaptation of people to the new situation goes difficult, while somewhat easier for employed in intellectual ...
Added: April 25, 2020
, , Мониторинг общественного мнения: Экономические и социальные перемены 2016 № 6 С. 69-88
The article is concerned with reproductive intentions of young women the beginning of their career path in various bodies and agencies of state service, mainly of federal government. The article is based on 32 semi-structured in-depth interviews, conducted in 2016. Main research problem and main results consist in difficulties of choice of the point on ...
Added: January 21, 2017
Скромные демографические результаты пронаталистской политики в контексте долговременной эволюции рождаемости в России. Часть 2
, Демографическое обозрение 2016 Т. 3 № 4 С. 6-26
The point of view of the extraordinary growth of fertility in Russia is widespread in the Russian expert community and media space. This increase is believed to be indicative of the positive results of the special financial measures taken by the State after 2006 in order to stimulate the birth rate. Do demographers have strong ...
Added: March 6, 2017
, Демографическое обозрение 2020 Т. 7 № 3 С. 183-190
The book is a significant contribution to the study of the history of collectivization in the USSR and its consequences and, more broadly, of the history of the USSR in the 1920s and 1930s. For the demographer - reader, it is especially important that the book’s author focuses on the demographic perspective of the general ...
Added: January 26, 2021
Ethnicity and fertility of descendants of rural-to-urban migrants: the case of Daghestan (North Caucasus)
, , Journal of International Migration and Integration 2021 Vol. 1 No. 1 P. 1-21
This paper studies ethnic differences in the fertility of the descendants of migrants in a highly polyethnic region of Russia, Dagestan (North Caucasus). That region gives a rather rare example of an urban population whose majority is formed by migrants and their second- and third-generation descendants of several ethnicities which differ in fertility in their ...
Added: August 3, 2021
, Общественные науки и современность 2012 № 2 С. 78-91
The article gives a developed criticism of representations that in advanced countries there were steady changes in dynamics of birth rate. This contradicts theories of demographic transition. The author polemizes with the arguments of M. Kluptas article published in same number. ...
Added: August 21, 2012