Development Of Composite Indicators Of Cyclical Response In Business Surveys Considering The Specifics Of The ‘Covid-19 Economy’
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION. SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION. НИУ ВШЭ , 2021. No. WP BRP 121/STI/2021.
The article proposes a new set of composite indicators-predictors in business tendency surveys, which allow identifying early information signals of a cyclical nature in the economic behaviour of business agents. The main criterion for the efficiency of such indicators is their sensitivity to a cyclical pattern and changes in the dynamics of statistical referents. Statistically significant lead in time series or earlier publication allows them to be combined into a group of early response indicators. The composite Business Activity Indicator (BAI) in the basic sectors of the Russian economy reflects the ‘common’ profile in the dynamics of short-term fluctuations of the key parameters of the economic environment. It consists of the ‘balances of opinions’ of respondents on questions, which are unified for all sectoral surveys, and connected with reference quantitative statistics with significant cross-correlation coefficients and a lead of at least one quarter. This is its main difference from the well-known indices of economic sentiment and entrepreneurial confidence. The components of the BAI are the new composite indices of real demand, current output, real employment, total profits and general economic situation. The Economic Vulnerability Indicator demonstrates a counter directional profile and various symmetries of its dynamics relative to the short-term movement of the BAI. Proactive monitoring of emerging vulnerabilities in the business environment is necessary to warn of their large-scale accumulation, prevent the risks of economic downturns and ensure the highest possible macroeconomic stability. This integrated approach determines the novelty of the proposed measures of short-term cyclical fluctuations in economic development.
, , Вопросы статистики 2021 Т. 28 № 2 С. 24-41
The article proposes a new set of composite indicators-predictors in business tendency surveys, which allow identifying early information signals of a cyclical nature in the economic behavior of business agents. The main criterion for the efficiency of such indicators is their sensitivity to a cyclical pattern and changes in the dynamics of statistical referents. Property ...
Added: May 11, 2021
, Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2010 Т. 14 № 2 С. 185-201
The article demonstrates that cyclical fluctuation of industrial outputs (consumer products, equipments, materials and supplies) have important, specific features in Russian and US's economies. The result allows to better understand the formation of business cycles of national economies within their structural peculiarity. Based on statistical analysis of physical industrial output (for Russia relevant indexes were ...
Added: October 13, 2012
, Вопросы экономики 2013 № 7
The objective of this study is to develop a system of leading indicators of the business cycle turning points on a wide range of countries, including Russia, over a more than thirty years period. We use a binary choice model with the dependent variable of the state of economy: the recession, there is no recession. ...
Added: June 6, 2013
Практика идентификации ненаблюдаемых компонент в траектории ВВП: потенциальный уровень и краткосрочные разрывы
, , et al., Вопросы статистики 2015 № 10 С. 14-25
The authors systematize the most well-known concepts and definitions of potential output and gaps according to the various economic schools approaches. The article also provides a typology of basic econometric methods for estimating potential level and output gap in the national gross product dynamics. The authors give a brief description of various econometric methods of statistical ...
Added: December 16, 2015
Межстрановой опыт прогнозирования макроэкономических и кредитных кризисов и его применение для России
, , et al., Экономическая политика 2020 Т. 15 № 5 С. 130-159
This paper provides a joint analysis of business and credit cycles with a focus on unobservable factors affecting both cycles, at the cross-country level. Using quarterly data for 19 developed countries and Russia for the period from 1994 to 2018, we build a system of two dynamic probit models, which includes a cross-correlation between the ...
Added: July 9, 2021
, , Journal of International Scientific Publications: Economy & Business 2014 Vol. 8 P. 399-412
It is now widely accepted that modern economic science failed to foresee the financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009. However it is appear that there is still a lack of understanding fundamental causes of this crush and its aftermath. The available standard forecasting models and theories for the growth of the global economy are barely ...
Added: October 15, 2014
, Those Unpredictable Recessions / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2011. No. 02.
Contemporary global economic life is measured in days and hours, but most common economic indicators have inevitable lags of months and sometimes quarters (GDP). Moreover, the real-time picture of economic dynamics may differ in some sense from the same picture in its historical perspective, because all fluctuations receive their proper weights only in the context ...
Added: August 28, 2012
, Predicting US Recessions: Does a Wishful Bias Exist? / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014. No. 77.
There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert forecasts of real GDP growth rates. Other evidence concerns differences in the accuracy of GDP forecasts made during expansions and those made during contractions. It has also been hypothesized that a wishful bias may hamper the ability ...
Added: November 28, 2014
This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores ...
Added: June 21, 2016
Technology adoption expectations in the face of temporal uncertainty: an analysis of survey data from manufacturing firms
, , Technology Analysis & Strategic Management 2022
The paper studies the link between yearly behavioural expectations and technology adoption decisions of entrepreneurs and managers in the temporal context. According to our hypothesis, the expectations of managers are of a heterogeneous nature, possessing both backward-looking and forward-looking properties, and the external conditions may influence the severity of these properties in the expressed expectations. ...
Added: September 6, 2021
, On Persistence of Uncertainty Shocks / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2016.
I study real effects of uncertainty shocks. Using time-varying volatility of the forecast error, I construct a two-part uncertainty metric that consists of persistent and volatile, burst- like components. These indices are used to study empirically several predictions of un- certainty models: that uncertainty shocks have real effects, that these effects realize in a downturn/overshoot ...
Added: October 21, 2016
, , , Вопросы статистики 2016 № 12 С. 29-38
This article proposes an original method for estimating regional economic activity in Russia. It is based on monthly official regional statistics in five main sectors of the Russian economy (industry, construction, retail trade, wholesale trade and paid services) but transforms it into specially constructed dichotomous variables which eliminate an excessive volatility of initial time-series. Indices of ...
Added: December 19, 2016
Discerning ‘Turning Points’ with Cyclical Indicators: A few Lessons from ‘Real Time’ Monitoring the 2008–2009 Recession
, Discerning ‘Turning Points’ with Cyclical Indicators: A few Lessons from ‘Real Time’ Monitoring the 2008–2009 Recession / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP2 "Количественный анализ в экономике". 2011. No. 03.
The cyclical indicators approach has been used for decades but the last recession has once more rekindled an interest for them throughout the world. Several new techniques and indicators were introduced in recent years but the actual quality of these ‘newcomers‘ was not well established. During the last recession, performance of such ‘veterans’ as indexes ...
Added: December 26, 2012
, , Indices of Regional Economic Activity for Russia / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2017. No. 169.
Regional statistics published by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) are reviewed in terms of quality, and radical disagreement between “month-on-month” and “year-on-year” monthly statistics is identified. In view of this, an original method is proposed for estimating the level of Regional Economic Activity (REA), based on monthly official regional statistics in five key ...
Added: August 9, 2017
, , , Springer, 2016
This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central ...
Added: October 15, 2016
Leading indicators of turning points of the business cycle: panel data analysis for OECD countries and Russia
, Leading indicators of turning points of the business cycle: panel data analysis for OECD countries and Russia / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2014.
The main objective of this paper is to develop leading indicators of business cycle turning points for OECD countries and Russia, in order to reveal common factors of their macroeconomic processes over a long period of time. To predict cycle turning points, leading indicator models with a discrete dependent variable reflecting a business cycle phase ...
Added: February 20, 2014
A Binary Model versus Discriminant Analysis Relating to Corporate Bankruptcies: The Case of Russian Construction Industry
, , Journal of Accounting, Finance and Economics 2013 Vol. 3 No. 1 P. 65-76
The last market crash of 2008-2009 showed that the construction sphere is one of the most fragile subject to the crisis effect. The destructive effect of this crash resulted in substantial decrease in mortgage lending, price index, capital investment, and in growth of the cost level. As the construction industry remains strategically important, the eruption ...
Added: September 5, 2013
Профессиональный стандарт "Специалист по управлению финансовыми рисками": опыт разработки и перспективы применения
, , Экономика и управление: проблемы, решения 2016 Т. 2 № 8 С. 247-252
Под эгидой Гильдии финансовых аналитиков и риск-менеджеров и Русского общества управления рисками разработан новый профессиональный стандарт «Специалист по управлению финансовыми рисками», который предназначен для оценки квалификации риск-менеджеров. В статье описываются предпосылки создания и краткое содержание стандарта с целью его популяризации. ...
Added: September 5, 2016
Oxford Abstracts, 2021
Recovering from Covid: Responsible Management and Reshaping the Economy In 2021, the 35th Conference and 2nd BAM Conference in the Cloud, will critically engage with the socio-economic recovery from the global Covid-19 pandemic. Consumers, producers, frontline workers, managers, businesses, public and third sector organisations all have their own roles and responsibilities in transforming our marketised society for the post-pandemic world. We will critically explore the challenges we all face, aiming to ...
Added: June 12, 2021
, , Проблемы теории и практики управления 2014 № 12 С. 89-96
In this article is conducted research of the mechanism of selection of venture innovative projects. We studied the factors, which influence a choice of business angels. The purpose of work was to receive an advanced system of estimation of projects. On the basis of the survey it is possible to say that the financing of ...
Added: December 8, 2014
, , , Problems of Economic Transition 2010 Vol. 53 No. 3 P. 69-95
The article considers different approaches, all based on detailed statistical data, to determine which industries and commodities have high, medium, or low sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. The authors conclude that any exchange rate policy is an inappropriate tool to influence the structure of Russian economy. ...
Added: April 12, 2013
, , , Энергия: экономика, техника, экология 2012 № 5 С. 37-39
The article discusses the potential role of Russia in global carbon markets, prospects and opportunities for national businesses in greenhouse gas emission reduction ...
Added: July 20, 2016
, , , Вестник АКСОР 2017 Т. 43 № 3-4 С. 71-78
In this article we consider the issues of preparing statistical data for using in applied macroeconomic models, based on balance equalities. We propose a description of every macroeconomic agent, which consists of four balances of different kind. The described construction is filled with statistical data, which describes the condition of main sectors of Russian economy, ...
Added: November 26, 2017
Развитие ресурсных центров Ямало-Ненецкого автономного округа, специализирующихся на добыче углеводородов
, , Инновации 2016 № 1 С. 79-84
Предмет/тема. В статье показано, что основной проблемой социально-экономического развития монопрофильных городов Ямало-Ненецкого автономного округа является узкая специализация хозяйства, основанная на эксплуатации нефтегазовых ресурсов. Методология. Методологической базой для достижения поставленных в статье целей выступают системный подход и статистические методы анализа. Результаты. Исследование проведено на примере городов Ноябрьск, Муравленко, Губкинский, являющиеся центрами добычи углеводородов. В исследуемых городах ...
Added: October 19, 2016