Assessment of GDP Growth after the Corona crisis Using the Results of Business and Consumer Surveys
Science, Technology and Innovation. WP BRP. Высшая школа экономики , 2021. No. WP BRP 118/STI/2021.
The article analyses the short-term effects of aggregate economic sentiment on the expected GDP growth in Russia based on the results of regular large-scale surveys of business activity of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for the period 1998-2020. The main purpose of the study is to substantiate the predictive value of the opinions of economic agents in expanding macroeconomic information, including in crisis periods. The authors calculate a composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI), which combines quarterly information for the analysed period on 18 indicators of surveys with a sample of about 24,000 organizations of all size in basic kinds of economic activity, and 5,000 consumers in all Russian regions. The authors prove the possibility of using a vector autoregression model (VAR) with dummy variables to measure the relationship between GDP growth and ESI time series. Scenario estimates of GDP growth until the end of 2021 are based on the expected impulses in the ESI dynamics at the end of 2020, which differ in the amplitude and duration of their impact on economic growth, primarily due to the coronavirus effect. According to the results, under all possible scenarios for the development of business trends, national economic growth can exceed the level of the end of 2019, starting from the third quarter of 2021.
, , Экономическая политика 2020 Т. 15 № 6 С. 8-41
The article analyzes the relationship between aggregate economic sentiment and GDP growth in Russia in the context of the regular large-scale surveys of business and households for the period of 1998–2020. The aim of the study is to prove the empirical value of the opinions of economic agents in expanding macroeconomic information, especially in a time of sudden crisis ...
Added: December 20, 2020
Short-term forecasting of economic growth in Russia amid uncertainty based on the opinions of entrepreneurs and consumers
, , , Short-term forecasting of economic growth in Russia amid uncertainty based on the opinions of entrepreneurs and consumers / . 2022. No. WP 2.
This paper analyses the short-term effects of aggregate economic sentiment on expected GDP growth in Russia based on the results of regular large-scale business and consumer surveys for 1998–2021. The main purpose of our study is to investigate the predictive value of the opinions and expectations of economic agents, especially in the context of crises and uncertainty. A composite ...
Added: February 4, 2022
, , Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review 2021 Vol. 9 No. 1 P. 7-29
Objective: The objective of the article is to prove the empirical and predictive value of the aggregate opinions of businesses and households for expanding cyclical macroeconomic data in Russia, especially during the coronavirus shocks. Research Design & Methods: We use qualitative information from surveys that cover about 24,000 organisations and 5100 households in all Russian regions. The total economic ...
Added: April 6, 2021
The Performance of Business and Consumer Sentiment for Early Estimates of GDP in Russia: Old Turning Points and New Challenges of the Corona Crisis
, , , The Performance of Business and Consumer Sentiment for Early Estimates of GDP in Russia: Old Turning Points and New Challenges of the Corona Crisis / НИУ ВШЭ. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2020. No. WP BRP 1 10 STI /20 20.
This study proves the efficiency of the results of business and consumer surveys for the first early estimates of GDP growth in Russia. For the expert community, the use of this alternative information, which is not revised over time and covers major economic activities, is essential when up-to-date traditional statistical information is not available, is ...
Added: June 18, 2020
, , et al., Business and consumer surveys in Russia: Focus on economic sentiment and GDP growth / . 2020. No. 7/2020.
This study determines the effectiveness of using assessments and expectations of economic agents in the analysis of macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cyclical interaction between economic growth and entrepreneurial behaviour. The authors used the composite economic sentiment indicator (ESI), which combined the confidence indicators of all sectoral business and consumer surveys ...
Added: May 22, 2020
Экономическое развитие и циклические настроения российских предпринимателей после рецессии 2014-2016 годов
, , , Вопросы статистики 2020 Т. 27 № 1 С. 53-70
The core objective of the study, results of which are summarized in this article, is to determine the eff ectiveness of using assessments of economic agents in the analysis of sectoral and macroeconomic development. The paper tests the hypothesis of the cross impact of economic growth and entrepreneurial behavior. It is assumed that economical cyclicity ...
Added: February 26, 2020
, , , Научно-технические ведомости Санкт-Петербургского государственного политехнического университета. Экономические науки 2013 № 3(173) С. 78-83
This article discusses aspects of expert evaluation of innovative potential of enterprises. In article aspects and stages of carrying out of an expert estimation of innovative potential of the enterprise are considered. Classification of indicators is presented, the toolkit for an estimation of innovative potential is stated. ...
Added: November 8, 2013
, Общественные науки и современность 2011 № 5 С. 21-33
The author compares the processes of economic development in the countries of the West and the East. The ratio in GDP growth, levels of per capita GDP both in the past and in the present time are analyzed. The article forecasts further development of Russia in whatever way (inertia, authoritarian or deepening of reforms) will ...
Added: December 17, 2012
, Oxford Economic Papers 2020 Vol. 72 No. 3 P. 633-650
This article analyzes the effect of public policy intervention in the production of health capital on fertility, private investment in children’s health and education and human capital accumulation. I have used a growth model with endogenous fertility, in which the usual parental trade-off between the quantity and quality of their children is augmented with an ...
Added: July 20, 2020
М.: ИНИОН РАН, 2010
Added: January 27, 2017
, Азия и Африка сегодня 2013 № 10 С. 44-48
This article deals with the issues of economic growth in South Africa during the post-apartheid period. Drivers of economic dynamics are analysed, including institutional and financial reforms which have been carried out by the ANC’s government. Domestic and external reasons for the slowdown of economic development at the turn of decades are also discussed in ...
Added: January 24, 2014
, , Общественные науки и современность 2016 № 1 С. 63-79
The article is devoted to estimation of the impact of cultural diversity on economic growth in the Russian regions in the framework of the neoclassical theory of economic growth. The model developed by R.Barro and X.Sala-i-Martin, called β-convergence, was used as a theoretical basis for the study. The main finding is that cultural diversity has ...
Added: May 5, 2016
, , Транспорт Российской Федерации 2013 Т. 49 № 6 С. 38-43
The paper considers main world trends which are affecting to logistics development. Some indicators for describing logistics sector and logistics market are given. Special focus is directed to an analysis of barriers as constrains for logistic development: size/scale of national economy, industrial structure of economy, particular features of spatial resource allocation. As a summary of ...
Added: January 31, 2014
L.: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2019
Modeling economic growth in contemporary Russia ...
Added: March 24, 2019
, , Efficiency, Policy Selection and Growth in Democracy and Autocracy: A Formal Dynamical Model / Высшая школа экономики. Series PS "Political Science". 2014. No. WP BRP 16/PS/2014.
The main focus of this paper is the impact of efficiency losses, related to public capital stock, on the prospects of economic growth in democratic and autocratic political environments. We introduce a distinction between two types of efficiency loss: along with the loss of public capital during its accumulation, we take into account the process ...
Added: October 24, 2014
Assessment of gross urban product in Russian cities and its contribution to Russian GDP in 2000–2015
, , Russian Journal of Economics 2017 Vol. 3 No. 3 P. 263-279
The article presents a new methodology for estimating gross urban product (the gross domestic product by city or metropolitan level) in Russia under extremely low statistical data availability about economy performance at the local level. These estimates provide new analytical instruments for assessing disparities in economic development between more than 1,000 Russian cities and other ...
Added: October 27, 2017
Теоретичні та емпіричні аспекти економічної оцінки залежності: екологічні імперативи – рівень суспільного розвитку
, Вісник Сумського національного аграрного університету. Серія «Економіка та менеджмент» 2005 No. 3-4(16-17) P. 215-222
Added: October 21, 2014
Наука – бизнес – образование: проблемы и перспективы компетентностного взаимодействия: Сб. материалов Международной науч.-практич. конф. (22 октября 2012 г., г. Ульяновск)
Ульяновск: УлГУ, 2012
Сб. материалов Международной науч.-практич. конф. (22 октября 2012 г., г. Ульяновск) ...
Added: September 30, 2014
М.: ИНИОН РАН, 2004
Added: January 27, 2017
, Вестник Института экономики Российской академии наук 2015 № 1 С. 149-162
The 19th century saw an explosive growth of the gap between the “First” and the “Third” World as regards per capita incomes and levels of life that has become to be known as the “Great Divergence”. In the 20th century the Great Divergence continued up to the early 1970s, and then – in the late ...
Added: December 3, 2015
, , , M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014
Economic growth. The Hungarian economy continued to perform well in 2Q14, GDP growing 3.9% y-o-y, a bit better than in 1Q14 (3.7%) according to the second reading. However, due to base effects (the economy contracted y-o-y in 1Q13 and 2Q13 was the weakest quarter of 2013 at 0.5%), seasonally and calendar-adjusted Q-o-Q GDP growth decelerated ...
Added: May 28, 2015
Innovations in Digital Economy. First International Conference, SPBPU IDE 2019, St. Petersburg, Russia, October 24–25, 2019, Revised Selected Papers
Switzerland: Springer, 2020
This book constitutes the revised and extended papers of the First International Conference on Innovations in Digital Economy, SPBU IDE 2019, held in St. Petersburg, Russia, in October 2019. The 8 papers presented were thoroughly reviewed and selected for publication from 78 submissions. The papers are organized according the following topical sections: economic efficiency and social consequences ...
Added: October 9, 2020
, Экономика региона 2018 Т. 14 № 4 С. 1168-1180
The article investigates the major determinants of total factor productivity of Russian regions, in particular, the role of spillovers and agglomeration effects. Agglomeration effects are found to be important in regions located in the European part of Russia and in regions with low shares of extraction in the gross regional product (GRP): employment density in such ...
Added: March 29, 2019
, , , REGIONAL CONVERGENCE IN RUSSIA: ESTIMATING A NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL / National Research University Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2020. No. 232/EC.
This paper studies the convergence in per capita gross regional products (GRPs) across Russian regions in the period from 1996 to 2017. We estimate growth equations, which are directly derived from a neoclassical growth model, augmented with human capital and migration. To our knowledge, this is the first paper that explicitly applies a neoclassical model ...
Added: October 8, 2020