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Working paper

Конвергенция региональной плотности населения в России за 120 лет

Холодилин К. А., Янжимаева Ю. И.
A uniform distribution of population over the territory of a country is very important from socio-economic and strategic standpoints. It is especially relevant for Russia whose European part is densely populated, while Asian part has very sparse population. In this study, we examine the changes in the population density of Russian regions between 1897 and 2017. We are interested in whether the regions converged in terms of their population density and what factors affected this process. For this purpose, we use data at both uezd and oblast level, which are converted to the same administrative borders (as of 1897 and 1926, correspondingly) in order to render our data comparable. Further, we estimate the models of unconditional and conditional β-convergence accounting for the spatial dependence and come to a conclusion that the population densities converged in 1897-2017 at the uezd level and in 1926-1970 at the oblast level. In addition, we find that the growth of population density is affected not only by the spatial effects but also by such political and geographical factors as climate, the number of GULAG camps, and the distance from the capital city.