Detecting and Validating Global Technology Trends Using Quantitative and Expert-Based Foresight Techniques
Kuzminov I., Bakhtin P. D., Khabirova E., Loginova I. V.
This paper contributes to the conceptualisation and operationalisation of the “technology trend” discussion in the scope of the Technology Foresight paradigm. It proposes a consistent logical approach to analysing technology trends and increase predictive potential of futures studies. The approach integrates Big Data analysis into the Foresight studies’ toolset by means of applying text mining, namely computerised analysis of large volumes of unstructured text-based industry-relevant analytics. It comprises methodological results such as analytical decomposition of the trend concept, including trend attributes (inherent characteristics) and various trend types and empirical results of detection and classification of global technology trends in the agricultural sector. The study makes a significant contribution to the development of a conceptual apparatus for trend analysis as a sub-area of Foresight methodology. The agricultural field is used to demonstrate the application the methodology. The empirical results can be applied by federal and regional authorities responsible for promoting development of the sectors to design relevant strategies and programmes, and by companies to set their long-term marketing and investment priorities.
Research target: Economics and Management
Priority areas: economics business informatics
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Available in SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2521012 This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council [grant number ES/J012785/1] as part of the project Emerging Technologies, Trajectories and Implications of Next Generation Innovation Systems Development in China and Russia. The project addresses research, management and policy issues related to advanced technological development in driving the growth of ...
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Theoretical and applied studies about monitoring technology trends are carried out by organizations at global, national, sectoral, and corporate levels. Demand for them comes from the government, business, academic institutions, as well as the general public. Qualitative methods (expert interviews, surveys, workshops, etc.) play a significant role in large practical projects. At the same time, ...
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Big-Data-Augmented Approach to Emerging Technologies Identification: Case of Agriculture and Food Sector
, , et al., Big-Data-Augmented Approach to Emerging Technologies Identification: Case of Agriculture and Food Sector / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2017. No. WP BRP 76/STI/2017.
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Entry into Export Markets as an Incentive to Innovate. Evidence from the Russian Manufacturing Industry Survey
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, Russian Journal of Management 2015 № 3 С. 16-24
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