Detecting and Validating Global Technology Trends Using Quantitative and Expert-Based Foresight Techniques
This paper contributes to the conceptualisation and operationalisation of the “technology trend” discussion in the scope of the Technology Foresight paradigm. It proposes a consistent logical approach to analysing technology trends and increase predictive potential of futures studies. The approach integrates Big Data analysis into the Foresight studies’ toolset by means of applying text mining, namely computerised analysis of large volumes of unstructured text-based industry-relevant analytics. It comprises methodological results such as analytical decomposition of the trend concept, including trend attributes (inherent characteristics) and various trend types and empirical results of detection and classification of global technology trends in the agricultural sector. The study makes a significant contribution to the development of a conceptual apparatus for trend analysis as a sub-area of Foresight methodology. The agricultural field is used to demonstrate the application the methodology. The empirical results can be applied by federal and regional authorities responsible for promoting development of the sectors to design relevant strategies and programmes, and by companies to set their long-term marketing and investment priorities.
, Уровень жизни населения регионов России 2013 № 10 С. 71-79
The article based on data of the author’s social survey investigates, which components of human capital that characterize innovative potential of the worker, bring him an additional reward on the regional labor market, and which of them can be called undervalued. Also the possible reasons of such undervaluation are being found. Employment and development of ...
Added: December 14, 2013
, , Russia's Experience of Foresight Implementation in Global Value Chain Research / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2015. No. 47.
Added: September 28, 2015
, , Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship 2016 Vol. 5 No. 1 P. 1-35
The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving empirical and methodological foundation of global value chain (GVC) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through application of foresight methodology based on the latest trend to combine the approaches of global value chain and national innovation system research. The authors choose ...
Added: February 17, 2016
, Молодежный научно-технический вестник 2012 № 6
Research of trends of the development of the scientific bibliometric information in distributed databases as an application of the Kondratyev’s theory of cyclic dynamics of the socio-economic systems was done in this work. A structural analysis of resources of the intellectual information space was fulfilled and an algorithm for forecasting of the development of scientific ...
Added: November 13, 2013
, , et al., Nanotechnology Research and Innovation in Russia: A Bibliometric Analysis / Manchester Institute of Innovation Research. Series October 2014 "Manchester Institute of Innovation Research papers". 2014.
Available in SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2521012 This work was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council [grant number ES/J012785/1] as part of the project Emerging Technologies, Trajectories and Implications of Next Generation Innovation Systems Development in China and Russia. The project addresses research, management and policy issues related to advanced technological development in driving the growth of ...
Added: November 21, 2014
Мобильность как инновационная составляющая человеческого капитала: влияние на доход и на склонность к инновациям
, Уровень жизни населения регионов России 2012 № 12 С. 120-128
The article how labor mobility, including not only shown in the market but also potential mobility, influences on the wages of the employee and his propensity to innovate. Thus, using data from the own survey, the author analyses how mobility is rewarded in the labor market and whether mobile workers are more active in the ...
Added: December 17, 2012
, , Foresight and STI Governance 2014 Vol. 8 No. 4 P. 64-83
Theoretical and applied studies about monitoring technology trends are carried out by organizations at global, national, sectoral, and corporate levels. Demand for them comes from the government, business, academic institutions, as well as the general public. Qualitative methods (expert interviews, surveys, workshops, etc.) play a significant role in large practical projects. At the same time, ...
Added: January 16, 2015
Tech Mining, a special form of “Big Data” analytics, aims to generate Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI) using bibliometric and text-mining software (e.g., VantagePoint, TDA) as well as other analytical & visualization applications for analyses of Science, Technology & Innovation (ST&I) information resources. The goal of the conference is to ENGAGE cross-disciplinary networks of analysts, software specialists, researchers, ...
Added: October 12, 2015
, , et al., Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2017 No. 119 P. 194-204
Developing competitive national shipbuilding industries is a strategic priority for many countries. Shipbuilding has evolved into a high tech industry over the last few decades that is strongly driven by customer needs and wishes. Consequently economic development of the industry is now far more complex than previously. International competition in the shipbuilding industry is very ...
Added: October 3, 2016
Big-Data-Augmented Approach to Emerging Technologies Identification: Case of Agriculture and Food Sector
, , et al., Big-Data-Augmented Approach to Emerging Technologies Identification: Case of Agriculture and Food Sector / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2017. No. WP BRP 76/STI/2017.
The paper discloses a new approach to emerging technologies identification, which strongly relies on capacity of big data analysis, namely text mining augmented by syntactic analysis techniques. It discusses the wide context of the task of identifying emerging technologies in a systemic and timely manner, including its place in the methodology of foresight and future-oriented ...
Added: November 28, 2017
, , Форсайт 2016 Т. 10 № 1 С. 69-82
The objective of this paper is to analyse the scope for improving empirical and methodological foundation of global value chains (GVCs) research and for making relevant political decisions, primarily through application of foresight methodology. The authors review major trends of global value chains’ development, specific features of Russia’s participation in them, and the necessary steps ...
Added: March 31, 2016
, , et al., Technology Analysis & Strategic Management 2020 Vol. 32 No. 5 P. 516-528
The system of food production is facing grand challenges, such as a rising population, climate change, degrading bio-productivity of agricultural land and over-fishing. Agriculture and food production are becoming more innovative and implement new infrastructure, IT-platforms or biotechnologies, like gene editing or synthetic food production. A more advanced knowledge base about food innovations helps customers ...
Added: October 16, 2019
, Problems of Economic Transition 2011 Vol. 53 No. 11 P. 23-38
The author argues that in crisis conditions a survival strategy for firms does not consist in abandoning investment but in adopting breakthrough ideas and technologies and applying them to production. ...
Added: February 7, 2013
Entry into Export Markets as an Incentive to Innovate. Evidence from the Russian Manufacturing Industry Survey
, , , Entry into Export Markets as an Incentive to Innovate. Evidence from the Russian Manufacturing Industry Survey / Высшая школа экономики. Series EC "Economics". 2011. No. 11.
This paper examines how export and export destination stimulates innovation by Russian manufacturing firms. The discussion is guided by the theoretical models for heterogeneous firms engaged in international trade which predict that, because more productive firms generate higher profit gains, they are able to afford high entry costs, and trade liberalization encourages the use of ...
Added: August 29, 2012
, , et al., Futures 2020 Vol. 115 No. article 102476 P. 1-12
The world economy relies on access to industrial metals, oil and gas for maintaining its critical industrial infrastructure. Although demand is likely to remain high, the most accessible deposits have been depleted. Future capacity growth will be facilitated through further technological developments. Therefore, Russia as a leading producer, is paying great attention to strengthening its competitive edge in global ...
Added: October 21, 2019
Моделирование потребительских предпочтений на московском рынке смартфонов методом совместного анализа
, , Вопросы статистики 2018 № 12 С. 28-39
The statement that demand creates its own supply rings true for the smartphone market as well as for any other sector of the market economy. With computerization level of society growing, Internet-based technology advancing, with the increase in Internet penetration of households, growing population mobility and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, it has ...
Added: January 10, 2019
Исследование влияния инновационной активности российских организаций на конкурентоспособность экономики
, Russian Journal of Management 2015 № 3 С. 16-24
The article investigates the innovation activities of Russian organizations and influence of such activities on the product export. Possibility of companies to export their products to the local, national and international markets is seen as the competitiveness of Russian economy at the macro, meso- and micro levels. In order to establish the link between product ...
Added: February 12, 2016
, , , Foresight 2020 Vol. 22 No. 1 P. 14-36
Purpose This paper aims to provide a detailed case study of a corporate foresight for innovation (CFI) project done by the Higher School of Economics’ (HSE) (Moscow, Russia) corporate foresight (CF) unit for a large state-owned Russian service company. It demonstrates how CFI methods lead to recommendations and how these recommendations result in decisions. Design/methodology/approach Drawing from being ...
Added: February 27, 2020
Роль организационного человеческого капитала в повышении уровня инновационной активности российских предприятий
, Управление экономическими системами: электронный научный журнал 2015 № 11 С. 19-27
The paper is devoted to the influence of the organizational human capital of Russian enterprises on innovative activity of these enterprises and also to the problems and prospective of development of the organizationalhuman capital. Using the data of the own sociological survey, the author calculated econometric equations estimating degree and significance of the influence of ...
Added: March 6, 2016
, , Nature 2013 Vol. 501 P. 313-314
Many of us believe that science is indispensable for generating innovation, and that innovation is a basis for manufacturing, which, in turn, is a must for the economy. But is the road that straight? In truth, it takes decades to recognize the fruits of scientific discovery and economic activity. Leonid Gokhberg and Dirk Meissner compare ...
Added: September 24, 2013
, , Framing emerging nanotechnologies: steps towards a forward-looking analysis of skills / Высшая школа экономики. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2013. No. 15.
How can we think about the implications of radical technological change for employment and skills? Given the long lead-times required to train professionals, this is an important question, and standard approaches to modeling employment and occupational trends only provide limited parts of the answer. Innovation studies provide us with some further tools for tackling the ...
Added: July 24, 2013
, Экономическая наука современной России 2016 Т. 72 № 1 С. 28-38
Knowledge production function displays the relationship between firm innovative efforts and its results obtained in form of useful knowledge. Analysis of the function allows a better understanding of firm innovation activity for better management of corporate resources. The current paper presents an overview of significant studies on this topic. The paper briefly describes evolution of ...
Added: October 24, 2013
, , Economy of Region 2021 Vol. 17 No. 1 P. 223-234
Universities play a crucial role in local economies, providing educational services and participating in research and development. This is particularly important for Russia where regions are highly differentiated in terms of both socio-economic development and technological progress and innovations. However, many regional universities in Russia have traditionally focused primarily on teaching, with less emphasis on ...
Added: October 1, 2020
, , et al., Scientometrics 2016 Vol. 108 No. 3 P. 1013-1041
This paper introduces a systematic technology trend monitoring (TTM) methodology based on an analysis of bibliometric data. Among the key premises for developing a methodology are: (1) the increasing number of data sources addressing different phases of the STI development, and thus requiring a more holistic and integrated analysis; (2) the need for more customized ...
Added: August 28, 2016