Land and Stock Bubbles, Crashes and Exit Strategies In Japan Circa 1990 and in 2013
The book gives in-depth analysis of historical background and the current economic relations between Russia and Japan.
In this paper, the authors apply a continuous-time stochastic process model developed by Shiryaev and Zhutlukhin for optimally stopping random price processes that appear to be bubbles, defined as price increases that are largely based on the expectation of higher and higher future prices. Futures traders, such as George Soros, attempt to trade such markets, trying to exit near the peak from a starting long position. The model applies equally well to the question of when to enter and exit a short position. In this article, the authors test the model in two technology markets. These include the price of Apple computer stock from various times in 2009–2012 after the local low of March 6, 2009, plus a market in which the generally very successful bubble trader George Soros lost money by shorting the NASDAQ-100 stock index too soon in 2000. The model provides good exit points in both situations; these would have been profitable to speculators who employed the model.
Game-theoretic model of Minsky’s tension is proposed. This model illustrates logic of actions for potential sellers in the context of «animal spirit» of confidence realization and herding behavior for situation when sufficient mass of players has doubts about further market price rise in a period from the end of euphoria until the beginning of panic. The logic of behavior for potential sellers and features of the way «animal spirit» of confidence influences them are revealed.
We study the land and stock markets in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013. While the Nikkei stock average in the late 1980s and its (Formula presented.) % crash in 1990 is generally recognized as a financial market bubble, a bigger bubble and crash was in the land market. The crash in the Nikkei which started on the first trading day of 1990 was predictable in April 1989 using the bond-stock earnings yield model which signalled a crash but not its exact moment. We show that it was possible to use the changepoint detection model based solely on price movements for profitable exits of long positions both circa 1990 and in 2013. © 2015 Taylor & Francis.
Smoking is a problem, bringing signifi cant social and economic costs to Russiansociety. However, ratifi cation of the World health organization Framework conventionon tobacco control makes it possible to improve Russian legislation accordingto the international standards. So, I describe some measures that should be taken bythe Russian authorities in the nearest future, and I examine their effi ciency. By studyingthe international evidence I analyze the impact of the smoke-free areas, advertisementand sponsorship bans, tax increases, etc. on the prevalence of smoking, cigaretteconsumption and some other indicators. I also investigate the obstacles confrontingthe Russian authorities when they introduce new policy measures and the public attitudetowards these measures. I conclude that there is a number of easy-to-implementanti-smoking activities that need no fi nancial resources but only a political will.
One of the most important indicators of company's success is the increase of its value. The article investigates traditional methods of company's value assessment and the evidence that the application of these methods is incorrect in the new stage of economy. So it is necessary to create a new method of valuation based on the new main sources of company's success that is its intellectual capital.