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Working paper

The integrated approach for Foresight evaluation: the Russian case

As the impact of strategic decision-making at the corporate, sectoral and national levels increases, there are growing demands for high quality and solid Foresight outputs. In this regard, a timely detection and elimination of problems in Foresight projects is of great importance. A thorough evaluation of criteria and methods used in Foresight analysis would permit the improved effectiveness of Foresight activities. The results could be set against the aims to decide on the feasibility of projects and identify ways to improve them. Despite great interest in Foresight evaluation demonstrated by stakeholders at various levels, the general principles for conducting it have not yet been formulated, which hinders its development and the diffusion of successful expertise. The purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated approach for the evaluation of Foresight projects, including their classification, basic criteria to evaluate project realisation, results and impact and a SWOT analysis. The proposed methodology was tested on Russian National Foresight 2030 and the results are described and analysed. Further ways of developing this approach are suggested.