Sectoral Foresight Studies: Future Perspectives of Nanotechnologies
Nanotechnology applications are proliferating, though the number commercialised is far outstripped by those under development. This chapter presents an approach to identifying the most promising nanoindustry product groups, the technological breakthroughs associated with these, and prospects for emergence of nanotechnology markets. In the Russian context, it suggested that significant niches in these nanotechnology markets can be established, by making an measured choice of priorities and focusing efforts on achieving these. Acting upon such priorities requires coordinated efforts from key actors throughout the life cycle of nanoproducts – from development to commercialization, not just in the research phase. We argue that the effectiveness of the measures that are taken will depend on the extent to which recommendations based on Foresight studies are taken on board in management decisions affecting the nascent nanoindustry's scientific, technological, and market development.
One of the most important issues for the world society in the XXI century is a task to provide pure water for citizens. As evidenced results of expert survey, made by the Higher School of Economics
significant part of water sources for drinking water in Russia doesn’t meet necessary requirements. And one of the most adequate solutions to meet this challenge is using the nanotechnologies in processes of water purification that can solve the set of problems such as polluted sources, obsolete equipment, increased risk of diseases etc. Roadmap “Applying Nanotechnology to Water Treatment” was launched by summarizing opinions of expert community participants both national and foreign regarding the most significant nanotechnologies and products made with their help which are used or can be used for water treatment and purification purposes. The aim of the research is to make special innovation routes R&D-technologies-products-markets that could be used by federal and regional authorities and Russian companies working in the field of water purification. The roadmap becomes the first largescale national foresight exercise in the area of nanotechnologies for water purification.
On the Russian population opinion one of the most urgent ecology problems is the water pollution. By the data of Russian Federal Consumer Rights Protection and Human Health Control Service about 37% of the surface sources of centralized drinking water supply don`t meet sanitary norms and rules and 22% of Russian citizens do not have access to centralized water supply .
The study outlined three possible ways of overcoming above marked problems. The first method is based on the modern industrial-management scheme which is traditional for water provision in Russia. The second option suggests cleaning up sources of water intakes. The third way shows an option of varying treatment methods and technologies, depending on customer needs.
The Roadmap developed by Higher School of Economics and Rusnano indentified that nanotechnologies increase the efficiency and decrease energy consumption of traditional as well as innovation processes of water purification. In particular the perspective area of nanotechnology application is lies in the sphere of innovation sorbents and coagulants. Moreover nanotechnologies can also be used in baromembrane processes and membrane bioreactors.
Innovation technologies, processes and products implementation should be specific to individual regions and municipalities. This approach is based on the compliance of centralized and decentralized water supply, inlet and outlet water quality.
The Roadmap results are designed for the formation of government and regional policy on the pure water provision for population and industrial water treatment. Furthermore it indicates the most relevant business ideas and evaluates projects for nanotechnology and nanoproducts used in this field.
This paper reports a Foresight exercise, which was carried out to develop a research strategy and a business model for the science park of Ankara University (AU). Science parks have been crucial elements of innovation systems both in developed and developing countries due to their role in bridging the gap between academia and business through knowledge spill-overs and spin-offs. Although there is a widespread consensus about the usefulness of the science park concept, the actual performance of science parks and how well they meet expectations have been controversial. This paper discusses the success factors for science parks. A three dimensional policy framework, which includes ‘complementarity’, ‘networking’ and ‘strategic scalar positioning’ is suggested to be taken into account during the design and operation of science parks. The paper describes the Foresight process and the policies and strategies developed by using the three dimensional policy framework proposed for the newly established science park at Ankara University.
This book presents nine case studies on small and medium-sized Russian innovative companies that received at different times financial support of the Foundation for Assistance to Small Innovative Enterprises in Science and Technology (FASIE). These case studies reveal 'live' experience in the setting up and development of innovative businesses in various fields: production of new products and materials, IT, industrial, scientific and medical devices, medical diagnostics. Various specific examples show the main problems faced by small innovative companies in raising financial backing for R&D and further commercialization and implementation of new products, technologies and services, as well as ways and means to address these problems in a different business environment. All case studies were elaborated on the basis of in-depth interviews with company executives within the framework of the project “Factory of cases”, completed by Higher School of Economics by commission from FASIE. The book also contains the review article, illustrating the specifics of innovative activity of small and medium-sized start-ups in Russia, and additionally provides brief analytical findings based on the results of the special study “Social profile of the modern russian innovative entrepreneur”, conducted by the Institute of Innovation Management in 2011. These collected articles are designed for innovative entrepreneurs and executives of small and medium-sized innovative companies, investors, managers and specialists of innovation support infrastructure.
In the past decades Foresight has been significantly developed as a tool for long-term forecasting in the field of power generation and energy efficiency. Such research aims at investigation of the most promising innovation strategies in this area, identifying various (including alternative) ways to achieve technological and market goals with the participation of best qualified experts. Such Foresight method as Roadmapping is widespread in the world practice. It helps to shape complex and interrelated views on prospects of innovation development in specific areas of energy efficiency, it links R&D programmes with creation of technologies and products, as well as their subsequent commercialization. The paper provides an overview of the world Foresight experience aimed at creating vision of the future and building innovation strategies related to energy efficiency. Special attention is paid to the Russian research practice, in particular to different types of Foresight projects implemented by the specialists of State University - Higher School of Economics. The authors describe the results of main projects dedicated to shape the future of energy-efficient technologies and to develop of innovation strategies on their application.
The paper provides a number of proposed draft operational guidelines for technology measurement and includes a number of tentative technology definitions to be used for statistical purposes, principles for identification and classification of potentially growing technology areas, suggestions on the survey strategies and indicators. These are the key components of an internationally harmonized framework for collecting and interpreting technology data that would need to be further developed through a broader consultation process. A summary of definitions of technology already available in OECD manuals and the stocktaking results are provided in the Annex section.
Purpose – This paper aims to depict foresight programmes as extended service encounters between foresight practitioners, sponsors, and other stakeholders. The implications of this perspective for evaluating the outcomes of such programmes are to be explored.
Design/methodology/approach – The range of activities comprising foresight is reviewed, along with the various objectives that may underpin these activities. The more substantial foresight programmes are seen in terms of a series of steps, in each of which various partners can be involved in generating service outcomes and later steps of the process. The arguments are illustrated with insights drawn from various cases.
Findings – A foresight programme is likely to feed into more than one policy process, so that the foresight activities can be linked to various stages of the policy cycles, as well as engaging participants with different degrees of inﬂuence on the policies in question. The outcomes of the foresight activity are also heavily shaped by the degree of involvement of various stakeholders, not least the sponsoring agency and any other groups it seeks to mobilise. Seeing foresight as a service activity brings to the fore the notion of co-production, and the importance of the design of the service encounters involved.
Research limitations/implications – The task of evaluating foresight is a challenging one, and comparison of foresight activities needs to bear in mind the different scale, scope, and ambitions of different programmes. Simple static comparison of formal inputs and outputs will miss much of the value and value-added of the activity.Practical implications – A dynamic approach to evaluation stresses the learning of lessons about the roles of multiple stakeholders – and the responsibilities of sponsors as well as practitioners. Originality/value – Foresight programmes are frequently commissioned, and often have signiﬁcant inﬂuence on decision-making. Attempts to systematically evaluate these efforts have begun, and this essay stresses the need to be aware of the complex interactive nature of foresight, highlighted by viewing it in service terms.
This illuminating book combines theory and practice to analyze the experiences and impacts of foresight activities in various European countries. It includes case studies with a focus on different societal issues including national development, science and technology, and sustainable development.