Модернизация и институты: количественные измерения
This work is an attempt to explain an enigma of the Russian economy's debarterization which took place in the beginning of the XXI century in the context of institutional-and-macroeconomic analysis of the structure of payments' system. This system is treated as the important part of an institutional environment. Debarterization is explained by a combination of long economic expansion, increasing «money supply/GDP» ratio and growing credit activity of the banks, and also administrative and tax pressing of the government. Nevertheless, the Russian payments' system is basically different from the Western one. The main measured differences are low «money supply/GDP» ratio, high «cash money/total money supply» ratio, an absence of M3 and M4 aggregates. The main causes of this underdevelopment of the payments' system are ineffective enforcement of the contracts by the state, high administrative barriers to entry, a lack of mutual trust, big shadow sector. The main consequences are narrow possibilities for financing both expensive (and long-lived) investment projects and innovative activity.
The paper analyzes the classical and neoclassical assumptions concerning the effect of the natural and the institutional environments on the comparative welfare of various countries. The distinction is considered between the preindustrial and industrial societies as to their natural and institutional conditions.